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<p>Why should one pay attention to leadership? Two reasons. First, leadership is easily measured. And second, broad leadership is a prerequisite for a bull OR a bear market. The biggest, multi-year bull markets have the most bullish leadership. Conversely, the big bear markets must have very negative leadership. Many other indicators, such as valuation and sentiment gauges, are more subjective and imprecise. That is, they never peak at the same level twice. In addition, both sentiment and valuation are “counter-trend” – meaning that once a market top is in place and stock prices start falling in a bear market, these indicators immediately begin to improve by moving toward more favorable readings. In other words, if you’re not already defensive, these counter-trend indicators will keep you invested all the way down.</p>
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