INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (17380,3,'2023-04-25 13:55:24','2023-04-25 19:55:24','<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"48px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:48px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Over 40 Years of Proven Track Record</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"textColor\":\"accent\",\"fontSize\":\"medium\"} -->\n<p class=\"has-accent-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Many investment advisors claim to have a great track record - or to have made spectacular stock market calls in recent years.  InvesTech Research has an outstanding track record of identifying both bull markets and bear markets... and <em>we can prove it!  </em></strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:nextend/smartslider3 {\"slider\":\"2\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-nextend-smartslider3\">[smartslider3 slider=\"2\"]</div>\n<!-- /wp:nextend/smartslider3 -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Checkout InvesTech Research In The News</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":28173,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://www.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/barrons-advisor-podcast-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28173\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published April 5, 2022</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Jim Stack Warns About the Fed, Tech Stocks, and Real Estate</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Listen to Jim Stack on the <em>Barron\'s</em> <em>Advisor </em>- <em>The Way Forward</em> podcast as he discusses the Fed\'s battle with inflation, the price of tech stocks, and the vulnerability in the housing market.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/barrons-advisor/jim-stack-warns-about-the-fed-tech-stocks-and-real-estate/c307c46e-6093-4dd3-9e66-1a0a069420ef?page=1\">Listen to the podcast</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https://www.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"Barron\'s logo\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published December 17, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Preparing for a Bear Market</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><em>Barron\'s </em>recently interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today\'s high-risk market.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https://www.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"MoneyShow logo\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published November 25, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Stack on Stocks: \"This is a High-Risk Environment </strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Valuations remain at or near their highest levels in history, corporations continue to add to their record debt loads, and inflation is proving to be non-transitory, cautions Jim Stack...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-57712/stack-on-stocks-this-is-a-high-risk-environment/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":10530,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/kiplinger.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10530\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published September 1, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>October Is a Spooky Month For Stocks</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Market crashes from decades ago come back to haunt investors\' thoughts every time the leaves start turning.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/603333/october-is-a-spooky-month-for-stocks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published September 28, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Opinion: U.S. consumers are gloomy about their finances and that means a recession could be near</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It\'s a bad sign that shoppers are more optimistic about the overall economy than they are about their own finances.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumers-are-gloomy-about-their-finances-and-that-means-a-recession-could-be-near-11632815496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":10483,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/superinvestors.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10483\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published July 28, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Super Investors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast </strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Jim Stack appears on the Super Investors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast with Jesse Felder.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://thefelderreport.com/2021/07/28/jim-stack-on-charting-a-course-through-stock-market-rapids/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Listen to Podcast</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"MoneyShow logo\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published July 13, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Easy Money And The Risks Of Inflation</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Investors in today\'s stock market have become intoxicated on the Federal Reserve\'s unprecedented - and seemingly endless - easy money policy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneyshow/2021/07/13/easy-money-and-the-risks-of-inflation/?sh=6bebb3966325\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published July 8, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Opinion: ‘You don’t have to be fully invested’ in the stock market today amid excess and speculation, says veteran investor Jim Stack</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Worried Wall Street wasn’t paying enough attention to the many speculative excesses in the markets and the Federal Reserve was too complacent on inflation...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-dont-have-to-be-fully-invested-in-the-stock-market-today-amid-excess-and-speculation-says-veteran-investor-jim-stack-11625761953\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":10530,\"width\":184,\"height\":67,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/kiplinger.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10530\" width=\"184\" height=\"67\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published March 23, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Are Stocks in a Bubble?  </strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Investors seeing signs of YOLO trading worry that the market is overinflated—and that the<br>bubble is about to pop.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stocks-to-buy/602443/are-stocks-in-a-bubble\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":6339,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TheEndGame-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6339\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published March 14, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Jim Stack joins Grant Williams and Bill Fleckenstein for a fascinating conversation on The End Game. Jim Stack explains where InvesTech\'s technical indicators suggest we are in the end game and what warning flags we are watching which may signal this bull market could be winding down.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/stack_podcast.mp3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Listen to Podcast</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2808,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Forbes-300x150.png\" alt=\"Forbes logo\" class=\"wp-image-2808\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published February 12, 2021</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Is the Stock Market About to Crash</strong>?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>‘Very, very concerning’ echoes of the 90s dot-com bubble are being heard loud and clear by nervous market experts. A 12-year-old bull market; SPAC mania; IPOs that more than double on the first trading day...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/02/12/is-the-stock-market-about-to-crash/?sh=1ffce86a71de\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5910,\"height\":150,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/forbesadv-5-300x155.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5910\" height=\"150\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published November 6, 2020</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Low Mortgage Rates and High Home Prices Shatter Records, But Will It Last?  </strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>“When you’re seeing the kind of a boom that leads to speculation and a disparity between prices and value, that’s where risk is created,” Stack says.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/low-mortgage-rates-high-home-prices/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2808,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Forbes.png\" alt=\"Forbes logo\" class=\"wp-image-2808\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published July 23, 2020</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>We Looked At How The Stock Market Performed Under Every U.S. President Since Truman</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\"There were excesses in the economy from so many people returning from war and jobs not being available—it was almost inevitable we were going to hit a recession,” says James Stack, president of InvesTech Research and Stack Financial Management.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/#1cc4171bfaaf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"Yahoo finance logo\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published November 20, 2019</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Why a Top Money Manager is Shifting Toward Value</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In our model portfolio, we are reducing our allocation to the healthcare and consumer staples sectors; at the same time, we are adding a 5% allocation to the S&amp;P 500 Value SPDR ETF (SPYV), explains James Stack, a leading value-oriented money manager and editor of InvesTech Research.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/james-stack-why-top-money-100000120.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"MoneyShow logo\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published August 12, 2019</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Stack on Stocks: Is It Time For Gold?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Speculators believe that Fed easing will save the economy and future returns will remain strong. Yet evidence suggests the economic slowdown or downturn may prove deeper than many realize. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tptp072513-52188/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"newsy\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns newsy\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published July 25, 2019</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Spotting The Next Bear Market</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I think one of the key elements today that increases the uncertainty in the outlook has been the reversal in Fed policy…but it doesn’t necessarily paint a bull market outlook with certainty.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spotting-the-next-bear-market-from-money-manager-james-stack-who-sidestepped-two-of-them-2019-07-25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"Barron\'s logo\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published May 15, 2019</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Jim Stack: Mastering the Market From Montana</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to keep in mind that no recession in U.S. history has been forecast in advance by any poll of economists.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jim-stack-mastering-the-market-from-montana-51557964714\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":2899,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/New-York-Times.png\" alt=\"New York Times logo\" class=\"wp-image-2899\"/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Published Jan 4, 2019</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>This Expert Called the Market Plunge</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>\"If there are any certainties, one will be that this party will eventually come to an end,” James Stack, president of InvesTech Research, told me a year ago.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/business/market-forecast-2019.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the article</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":7664} /-->','Media Recognition','','inherit','closed','closed','','2802-revision-v1','','','2023-04-25 13:55:24','2023-04-25 19:55:24','',2802,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=17380',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8773,3,'2021-02-25 20:42:00','2021-02-25 20:42:00','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>February 25, 2021:  We are initiating a 6% position in the SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF (symbol: CWI).</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This fund provides diversified exposure to the international equity market, excluding the U.S., and is an opportunistic way to invest in the post-pandemic economic recovery while addressing overvaluation and inflation risks.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Relative underperformance by international stocks over the past decade has led to a wide gap in valuation versus U.S. stocks. Valuations are ineffective timing tools, but they are a major determinant of long-term returns and represent an investor’s margin of safety.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>International stocks may also help to combat the rising threat of inflation. First, highly aggressive monetary and fiscal policies threaten to undermine the dollar, which could result in inflation for U.S. consumers and businesses. Historically, international stocks have outperformed when the U.S. dollar is in decline. The second threat of inflation comes from the release of pent-up demand as economies reopen in response to falling COVID-19 caseloads. Companies may not be able to increase their production in time to meet this wave of new demand, which would put upward pressure on prices. CWI is weighted more heavily toward geographies and sectors that will benefit from this method of inflation.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Model Fund Portfolio is now 80% invested with the remaining 20% held in short-term Treasurys or a money-market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio:  February 25, 2021','','publish','closed','closed','','model-fund-portfolio-february-25-2021','','','2021-06-28 20:45:25','2021-06-28 20:45:25','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-modelfund&#038;p=8773',0,'investech-modelfund','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8774,3,'2021-06-28 20:45:23','2021-06-28 20:45:23','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>February 25, 2021:  We are initiating a 6% position in the SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF (symbol: CWI).</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This fund provides diversified exposure to the international equity market, excluding the U.S., and is an opportunistic way to invest in the post-pandemic economic recovery while addressing overvaluation and inflation risks.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Relative underperformance by international stocks over the past decade has led to a wide gap in valuation versus U.S. stocks. Valuations are ineffective timing tools, but they are a major determinant of long-term returns and represent an investor’s margin of safety.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>International stocks may also help to combat the rising threat of inflation. First, highly aggressive monetary and fiscal policies threaten to undermine the dollar, which could result in inflation for U.S. consumers and businesses. Historically, international stocks have outperformed when the U.S. dollar is in decline. The second threat of inflation comes from the release of pent-up demand as economies reopen in response to falling COVID-19 caseloads. Companies may not be able to increase their production in time to meet this wave of new demand, which would put upward pressure on prices. CWI is weighted more heavily toward geographies and sectors that will benefit from this method of inflation.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Model Fund Portfolio is now 80% invested with the remaining 20% held in short-term Treasurys or a money-market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio:  February 25, 2021','','inherit','closed','closed','','8773-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 20:45:23','2021-06-28 20:45:23','',8773,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8774',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8775,3,'2021-01-28 20:48:00','2021-01-28 20:48:00','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>January 29, 2021:  <strong>We are rebalancing two positions in the Model Fund Portfolio.</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>First, we are adjusting the allocation to the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX) down to 7% from 9% on recent technical weakness. In the long-term, we continue to believe that gold will provide an effective hedge against the current dangerous monetary policy and runaway fiscal spending.</strong></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Second, due to the recent runup in technology stocks, we advise reviewing your 15% position allocation in the Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (symbol: RYT), and adjusting or reducing back to that 15% level if necessary.</strong></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong></strong>Equity markets are on track to close lower for the week as all eyes have been fixed on the historic battle between hedge fund short sellers and organized individual speculators in the video game retailer GameStop and other thinly traded issues, including AMC Entertainment and even Dogecoin.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Technically speaking, the bullish +76 Selling Vacuum component of our InvesTech Negative Leadership Composite is supportive of the market outlook. However, today’s extremes in speculation and investor sentiment –highlighted by margin debt hitting another record high this week– significantly raise the risk of a market correction.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This week’s economic reports suggest that the ongoing recovery remains intact, as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index inched up 0.3% in its latest reading. Similarly, both Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment were essentially unchanged this month.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Strategy:&nbsp;</strong>While the siege on short sellers by “Reddit” traders has been fascinating, we remain focused on the factors that will impact the long-term outlook of the equity market. With the ongoing speculative excesses and overbought levels in the market, we have decided to incrementally reduce our equity exposure. As a result, the Model Fund Portfolio now has an invested allocation of 74%, with the remainder in Treasurys or a money-market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Update:  January 29, 2021','','publish','closed','closed','','model-fund-portfolio-update-january-29-2021','','','2021-06-28 20:49:51','2021-06-28 20:49:51','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-modelfund&#038;p=8775',0,'investech-modelfund','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8776,3,'2021-06-28 20:49:48','2021-06-28 20:49:48','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>January 29, 2021:  <strong>We are rebalancing two positions in the Model Fund Portfolio.</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>First, we are adjusting the allocation to the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX) down to 7% from 9% on recent technical weakness. In the long-term, we continue to believe that gold will provide an effective hedge against the current dangerous monetary policy and runaway fiscal spending.</strong></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Second, due to the recent runup in technology stocks, we advise reviewing your 15% position allocation in the Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (symbol: RYT), and adjusting or reducing back to that 15% level if necessary.</strong></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong></strong>Equity markets are on track to close lower for the week as all eyes have been fixed on the historic battle between hedge fund short sellers and organized individual speculators in the video game retailer GameStop and other thinly traded issues, including AMC Entertainment and even Dogecoin.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Technically speaking, the bullish +76 Selling Vacuum component of our InvesTech Negative Leadership Composite is supportive of the market outlook. However, today’s extremes in speculation and investor sentiment –highlighted by margin debt hitting another record high this week– significantly raise the risk of a market correction.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This week’s economic reports suggest that the ongoing recovery remains intact, as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index inched up 0.3% in its latest reading. Similarly, both Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment were essentially unchanged this month.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Strategy:&nbsp;</strong>While the siege on short sellers by “Reddit” traders has been fascinating, we remain focused on the factors that will impact the long-term outlook of the equity market. With the ongoing speculative excesses and overbought levels in the market, we have decided to incrementally reduce our equity exposure. As a result, the Model Fund Portfolio now has an invested allocation of 74%, with the remainder in Treasurys or a money-market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Update:  January 29, 2021','','inherit','closed','closed','','8775-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 20:49:48','2021-06-28 20:49:48','',8775,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8776',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8781,3,'2021-06-28 21:11:20','2021-06-28 21:11:20','','sell-in-may-truism','','inherit','closed','closed','','sell-in-may-truism','','','2021-06-28 21:32:44','2021-06-28 21:32:44','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8783,3,'2021-06-18 21:18:00','2021-06-19 03:18:00','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":9310,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Tale-Two-Investors.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9310\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":9378,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=9378\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SP500-Seasonal-Performance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9378 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":9381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Seasonal-Sector-Rotation.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9381\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Sell-in-May-updated.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','publish','closed','closed','','sell-in-may','','','2021-10-22 16:40:28','2021-10-22 22:40:28','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-library&#038;p=8783',0,'investech-library','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8784,3,'2021-06-28 21:18:17','2021-06-28 21:18:17','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":47} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 47%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.<br>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.<br>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":530,\"height\":298,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"530\" height=\"298\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:18:17','2021-06-28 21:18:17','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8784',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8785,3,'2021-06-28 21:19:51','2021-06-28 21:19:51','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":39} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 39%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.<br>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.<br>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:19:51','2021-06-28 21:19:51','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8785',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8786,3,'2021-06-28 21:20:57','2021-06-28 21:20:57','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.<br>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.<br>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:20:57','2021-06-28 21:20:57','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8786',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8788,3,'2021-06-28 21:22:50','2021-06-28 21:22:50','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:22:50','2021-06-28 21:22:50','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8788',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8790,3,'2021-06-28 21:23:49','2021-06-28 21:23:49','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:23:49','2021-06-28 21:23:49','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8790',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8792,3,'2021-06-28 21:24:38','2021-06-28 21:24:38','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:24:38','2021-06-28 21:24:38','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8792',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8793,3,'2021-06-28 21:25:14','2021-06-28 21:25:14','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:25:14','2021-06-28 21:25:14','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8793',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8794,3,'2021-06-28 21:32:01','2021-06-28 21:32:01','','pexels-may-4916148','','inherit','closed','closed','','pexels-may-4916148','','','2021-06-28 21:32:01','2021-06-28 21:32:01','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/pexels-may-4916148.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8796,3,'2021-06-28 21:32:44','2021-06-28 21:32:44','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:32:44','2021-06-28 21:32:44','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8796',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8797,3,'2021-06-28 21:33:13','2021-06-28 21:33:13','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:33:13','2021-06-28 21:33:13','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8797',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8799,3,'2021-06-28 21:36:48','2021-06-28 21:36:48','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:36:48','2021-06-28 21:36:48','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8799',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8800,3,'2021-06-28 21:36:50','2021-06-28 21:36:50','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:36:50','2021-06-28 21:36:50','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8800',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8802,3,'2021-06-28 21:37:43','2021-06-28 21:37:43','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:37:43','2021-06-28 21:37:43','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8802',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8803,3,'2021-06-28 21:37:46','2021-06-28 21:37:46','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /--></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:37:46','2021-06-28 21:37:46','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8803',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8805,3,'2021-06-28 21:38:35','2021-06-28 21:38:35','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:38:35','2021-06-28 21:38:35','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8805',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8806,3,'2021-06-28 21:38:37','2021-06-28 21:38:37','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:38:37','2021-06-28 21:38:37','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8806',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8807,3,'2021-06-28 21:39:02','2021-06-28 21:39:02','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:39:02','2021-06-28 21:39:02','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8807',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8808,3,'2021-06-28 21:39:04','2021-06-28 21:39:04','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:39:04','2021-06-28 21:39:04','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8808',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8809,3,'2021-06-28 21:39:17','2021-06-28 21:39:17','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":53} -->\n<div style=\"height:53px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":59} -->\n<div style=\"height:59px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:39:17','2021-06-28 21:39:17','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8809',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8810,3,'2021-06-28 21:39:19','2021-06-28 21:39:19','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>How to use Seasonality to your advantage</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, the period from November 1 through April 30 has been the best time to be invested in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 during the winter period has gained an average of +7.2% since 1960 and has delivered a positive return 75% of the time. Conversely, the summer period from May 1 through October 31 has seen an average return of just +2.2%. The results are even more stark when this difference in performance is compounded over time…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Tale of 2 Seasonal Investors</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The graph below compares the performance of two opposing seasonal investors who start with a $10,000 nest egg in 1960. Investor A invests in an S&amp;P 500 index fund from November 1 through April 30 and moves to cash from May through October. Investor B does the opposite, investing only in the summer months and moving to cash for the winter months:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8778,\"width\":759,\"height\":498,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Taleof2investors.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the hypothetical results of 2 seasonal investors.  Investing $10,000 only during November through April would make 25 times more than the investor only investing May through October.  \" class=\"wp-image-8778\" width=\"759\" height=\"498\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The outcomes couldn’t be more strikingly different! Investor A’s portfolio would have compounded to over $1,000,000,<br>whereas Investor B’s investment would only have grown to $41,000. While both investors made money, the fact that<br>Investor A’s portfolio would be worth more than 25 times that of Investor B makes this lesson from history too important<br>to ignore.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8779,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?attachment_id=8779\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":32} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 32%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sp500-seasonal-performance.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Seasonal Performance comparing the May-Oct timeframe to the Nov-Apr timeframe.  \" class=\"wp-image-8779 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Seasonal Performance</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right, which lists the gains and losses for each seasonal period of the past 60 years, further illustrates the substantial difference in seasonal performance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Note that there are more negative (losing) periods over the summer than during the winter (21 periods versus 15). More importantly, there are nearly twice as many double-digit losses in the summer as in the winter, and such supersized declines have typically been associated with major bear markets, including 1974, 2001-02, and 2008. When looking for double-digit gains, they are far more prevalent in the winter (Nov-Apr) than the summer (May-Oct)… by a ratio of 3 to 1! Simply put, the summer months are not the time to be swinging for the fences.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although the “Sell in May and Go Away” adage has a very strong historical precedent, abandoning the stock market entirely in May is not a prudent investment strategy. Winters aren’t always winners and summers aren’t always losers – in fact, the majority of summers still see positive gains. Nonetheless, there are ways that investors can use this trend in seasonal performance to their advantage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Allocation Adjustments</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps the best way to position for seasonality in the stock market is by adjusting one’s allocation based on overall weight of the evidence in managing risk. For example, if one is in a new bull market with very strong macroeconomic and technical indicators, then it might be prudent to ignore the “Sell in May…” phenomenon. The 2009 period was a perfect example, as confirmation emerged that the 2007-09 bear market had likely ended in March. The market subsequently enjoyed a +18.7% gain during the summer months.<br>Conversely, the May-October intervals in 2001 and 2008 came shortly after long-term bull markets had hit record multi-year highs and were already in retreat. The technical evidence of a bear market was increasing, and a seasoned investor might logically choose to further lighten allocation (i.e., take profits) to weather the seasonally weak summer period in a more defensive stance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sector Seasonality</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another strategy to take advantage of this seasonality lies in sector weighting. For instance, the table below shows how the ten S&amp;P 500 sectors performed during the winter versus summer. Included are total returns, as well as batting average (i.e., percentage of time the sector beat the S&amp;P 500 Index). As you’ll note, there is a significant change in sector leadership and performance between the two seasonal periods.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The cyclical sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials tend to lead in the winter months (red arrows), and all three sectors have averaged double digit returns during this period since 1990. The summer months show the opposite trend as investors become more defensive. The cyclical sectors move to the bottom of the list and the winter laggards take the lead (green arrows). Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been the most resilient sectors in the summer months, while the Technology sector benefits throughout the year, likely because of its stable cash flows.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8780,\"width\":659,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/seasonal-sector-rotation.png\" alt=\"seasonal sector rotation 1990-2021 showing leading sectors during November-April months flip to the opposite in the May-October timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-8780\" width=\"659\" height=\"371\"/><figcaption>Seasonal Sector Rotation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a rational strategy, we do not advocate selling all holdings in cyclical sectors when the summer season starts, however there are some incremental steps you might consider in rebalancing your portfolio…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Focus on the defensives. </strong>Since Consumer Staples and Health Care are the most resilient sectors during the summer, it’s generally a good idea to hold a larger weighting or allocation in these segments heading into May. The average total return (including dividends) for both sectors has exceeded +5% over the summer, and they beat the market about two-thirds of the time. Likewise, the Technology sector also does well. Overweighting these sectors could provide greater protection if the market hits turbulence during this less favorable seasonal period.</li><li><strong>Trim the cyclicals.</strong> Conversely, the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials sectors show the biggest negative shift heading into the summer period. With average summer returns of less than +2%, these sectors have lagged the S&amp;P 500 the vast majority of the time. Consequently, early spring may be a good time to consider taking some profits and trimming these cyclical holdings if they’ve appreciated over the preceding six months.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"warm-grey\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall has-warm-grey-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":53} -->\n<div style=\"height:53px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Addendum:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>How \"Sell in May...\" affects our 2021 Strategy (June 18, 2021)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As detailed in the previous report, the “Sell in May…” seasonal phenomenon should not drive investment strategy, but instead be used to augment or benefit current allocation decisions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In that regard, the most significant influence for our InvesTech Mutual Fund portfolio in 2021 is with respect to maintaining a defensive overall portfolio allocation with a comfortable cash/treasury reserve. We believe recent emergence of extraordinarily strong inflation pressures will override the normal sector seasonality, making the most prudent weighting a mix of both defensive holdings and cyclical sectors that will benefit from increasing prices. With the very high historical valuations and extreme speculative excesses in today’s stock market, a “safety-first” strategy has seldom been more important.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":59} -->\n<div style=\"height:59px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Excerpt from&nbsp;<em>InvesTech Research</em>&nbsp;– June 18, 2021</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to&nbsp;read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/sell-in-may-truism.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','\"Sell in May?...\"','Every year sees new debates over the merits of the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and Go Away.” Unlike many adages on Wall Street, this is more than just a popular saying. It is based on sound statistics that have meaningful investment implications.','inherit','closed','closed','','8783-revision-v1','','','2021-06-28 21:39:19','2021-06-28 21:39:19','',8783,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8810',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8813,3,'2021-06-25 10:30:00','2021-06-25 16:30:00','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>No relief on the inflation front</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This is well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, Fed officials have started to feel pressure to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/a-leading-inflation-indicator-points-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":9387,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Core-PCE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9387\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":52} -->\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  ','draft','closed','closed','','no-relief-on-the-inflation-front','','','2021-10-20 09:40:22','2021-10-20 15:40:22','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-library&#038;p=8813',0,'investech-library','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8815,3,'2021-06-29 16:10:44','2021-06-29 16:10:44','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.  This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.  While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8814,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8814\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:10:44','2021-06-29 16:10:44','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8815',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8816,3,'2021-06-29 16:11:27','2021-06-29 16:11:27','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8814,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8814\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:11:27','2021-06-29 16:11:27','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8816',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8818,3,'2021-06-29 16:14:53','2021-06-29 16:14:53','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8814,\"width\":600,\"height\":316,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8814\" width=\"600\" height=\"316\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:14:53','2021-06-29 16:14:53','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8818',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8819,3,'2021-06-29 16:32:09','2021-06-29 16:32:09','','pexels-heat-672636','','inherit','closed','closed','','pexels-heat-672636','','','2021-06-29 16:32:09','2021-06-29 16:32:09','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/pexels-heat-672636.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8822,3,'2021-06-29 16:39:31','2021-06-29 16:39:31','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8814,\"width\":600,\"height\":316,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8814\" width=\"600\" height=\"316\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8821,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8821\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:39:31','2021-06-29 16:39:31','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8822',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8823,3,'2021-06-29 16:42:30','2021-06-29 16:42:30','','pexels-sun-68768','','inherit','closed','closed','','pexels-sun-68768','','','2021-06-29 16:42:30','2021-06-29 16:42:30','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/pexels-sun-68768.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8824,3,'2021-06-29 16:42:42','2021-06-29 16:42:42','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8821,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8821\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:42:42','2021-06-29 16:42:42','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8824',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8826,3,'2021-06-29 16:43:51','2021-06-29 16:43:51','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:43:51','2021-06-29 16:43:51','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8826',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8833,3,'2021-06-29 16:53:06','2021-06-29 16:53:06','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:53:06','2021-06-29 16:53:06','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8833',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8835,3,'2021-06-29 16:55:26','2021-06-29 16:55:26','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:55:26','2021-06-29 16:55:26','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8835',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8837,3,'2021-06-29 16:56:59','2021-06-29 16:56:59','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 16:56:59','2021-06-29 16:56:59','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8837',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8838,3,'2021-06-29 17:23:12','2021-06-29 17:23:12','','mi-inflation','','inherit','closed','closed','','mi-inflation','','','2021-06-29 17:23:12','2021-06-29 17:23:12','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8840,3,'2021-06-29 17:24:12','2021-06-29 17:24:12','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 17:24:12','2021-06-29 17:24:12','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8840',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8841,3,'2021-06-29 17:24:14','2021-06-29 17:24:14','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s report), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 17:24:14','2021-06-29 17:24:14','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8841',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8852,3,'2021-06-29 18:52:11','2021-06-29 18:52:11','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.&nbsp; Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by more favorable views of the labor market.&nbsp; In fact, over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that could lead to persistent wage inflation.&nbsp; According to the Conference Board’s survey, concerns about inflation are already present as consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 10-year high.&nbsp; This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":9255,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Consumer-Confidence.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9255\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":50} -->\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->','Consumer confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?  Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  ','publish','closed','closed','','consumer-confidence-rebounds-but-at-a-cost','','','2021-10-20 09:39:14','2021-10-20 15:39:14','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-library&#038;p=8852',0,'investech-library','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8854,3,'2021-06-29 18:52:11','2021-06-29 18:52:11','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8853,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8853\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 18:52:11','2021-06-29 18:52:11','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8854',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8855,3,'2021-06-29 18:52:15','2021-06-29 18:52:15','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8853,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8853\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 18:52:15','2021-06-29 18:52:15','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8855',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8859,3,'2021-06-29 19:06:44','2021-06-29 19:06:44','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:06:44','2021-06-29 19:06:44','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8859',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8860,3,'2021-06-29 19:06:48','2021-06-29 19:06:48','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:06:48','2021-06-29 19:06:48','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8860',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8863,3,'2021-06-29 19:16:00','2021-06-29 19:16:00','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8862,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8862\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:16:00','2021-06-29 19:16:00','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8863',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8864,3,'2021-06-29 19:16:02','2021-06-29 19:16:02','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.  This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.  Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market.  Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.  While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it also highlights that wage inflation remains a primary economic concern.  And these inflationary concerns are further compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.  This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8862,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8862\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:16:02','2021-06-29 19:16:02','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8864',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8866,3,'2021-06-29 19:22:26','2021-06-29 19:22:26','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, inflation concerns are compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:22:26','2021-06-29 19:22:26','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8866',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8867,3,'2021-06-29 19:22:29','2021-06-29 19:22:29','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, inflation concerns are compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:22:29','2021-06-29 19:22:29','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8867',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8868,3,'2021-06-29 19:27:37','2021-06-29 19:27:37','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8858,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8858\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 19:27:37','2021-06-29 19:27:37','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8868',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8871,3,'2021-06-29 20:24:34','2021-06-29 20:24:34','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 20:24:34','2021-06-29 20:24:34','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8871',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8872,3,'2021-06-29 20:24:36','2021-06-29 20:24:36','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 20:24:36','2021-06-29 20:24:36','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8872',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8873,3,'2021-06-29 20:25:39','2021-06-29 20:25:39','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 20:25:39','2021-06-29 20:25:39','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8873',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8874,3,'2021-06-29 20:26:43','2021-06-29 20:26:43','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at a cost','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 20:26:43','2021-06-29 20:26:43','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8874',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8875,3,'2021-06-29 20:27:56','2021-06-29 20:27:56','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but… at a cost</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 20:27:56','2021-06-29 20:27:56','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8875',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8878,3,'2021-06-29 21:39:30','2021-06-29 21:39:30','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Identifying Market Reversals with Investor Psychology</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>When investor psychology reaches an extreme, either bullish or bearish, it often marks a key turning point in the stock market.&nbsp; Yet, identifying when psychology reaches an extreme can be challenging.&nbsp; Most of the widely accessible gauges of investor sentiment are unsuitable for long-term investors due to their high degree of volatility (noise) and limited historical track records, while anecdotal evidence of extreme sentiment can be misleading as it pertains to the market as a whole.&nbsp; Consequently, we created the InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer (IIPB) to measure investor sentiment in a way that is more fitting of our long-term strategic investment approach. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7384,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/InvesTech-Investor-Psychology-Barometer.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7384\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer contains five complimentary and historically reliable components that gauge when investor sentiment reaches either optimistic exuberance or pessimistic gloom.&nbsp; When our IIPB reaches a reading of extreme optimism, it typically precedes a market consolidation or a bear market.&nbsp; Conversely, a reading of extreme pessimism indicates that selling pressures are nearing exhaustion and that a buying opportunity is likely at hand.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So how should our IIPB be used in practice? &nbsp;Here are three tips that will help you put this tool to its best use:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"ordered\":true,\"type\":\"1\"} -->\n<ol type=\"1\"><li><strong>Wait for a trend reversal. </strong>&nbsp;Investors can stay highly optimistic or pessimistic for extended periods of time.&nbsp; Just because the IIPB has entered one of the extreme zones doesn’t mean a reversal in the market is immediately forthcoming.</li><li><strong>Look at other indicators for context. </strong>&nbsp;Readings of extreme optimism can lead to a variety of outcomes, from mild consolidations to vicious bear markets.&nbsp; Putting IIPB readings in the context of our other technical and macroeconomic tools will help you gauge what the most likely outcome is for any given reading.</li><li><strong>Recognize that sentiment never peaks or bottoms at the same level twice. </strong>&nbsp;One of the most common problems with sentiment gauges is that they never peak or bottom at the same level at bull market tops or bear market bottoms.&nbsp; We have normalized the data in the IIPB to help remedy this problem, but there is still no <em>magic </em>number that can definitively mark the beginning or end of a cycle. &nbsp;Even so, having an awareness of the trend in investor sentiment can be an invaluable resource at turning points in the market cycle.</li></ol>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Psychology on Wall Street provides valuable insights into the opportunities and risks in the market at any given time, which makes our InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer an important tool in crafting a “safety-first” investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Investor Psychology Barometer','When investor psychology reaches an extreme, either bullish or bearish, it often marks a key turning point in the stock market.  ','inherit','closed','closed','','7373-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:39:30','2021-06-29 21:39:30','',7373,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8878',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8879,2,'2021-06-29 21:40:01','2021-06-29 21:40:01','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>InvesTech Adjusted Breadth Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech seeks to transform the “guesswork” of investing into a more precise strategy by utilizing a sophisticated (yet easy to understand) blending of economic, monetary, and technical analysis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7349,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/InvesTech-Adjusted-Breadth-Index-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7349\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Adjusted Breadth Index','A cumulative sum of the difference between advancing stocks and declining stocks on a given day.','inherit','closed','closed','','3059-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:40:01','2021-06-29 21:40:01','',3059,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8879',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8880,2,'2021-06-29 21:40:30','2021-06-29 21:40:30','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring bellwether leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, there are certain stocks that have reliably led the broad market averages at major market tops. These stocks tend to lead for a variety of reasons, including sensitivity interest rates, underlying economic conditions, or consumer spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to capture the potent signals from these stocks in the lead up to a bear market, we compiled these stocks into a composite known as the InvesTech Bellwether Index.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Underperformance in our Bellwether Index relative to the S&amp;P 500 Index is often an important warning flag that either a steep correction or a bear market lies in wait.&nbsp;Negative divergences in this Index can be clearly seen prior to the popping of the Tech Bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession in 2008.&nbsp;Other instances of underperformance in this Index, however, become more apparent when viewed from a relative basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Bellwether.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"100%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The chart below quantifies when the Bellwether Index is lagging behind the S&amp;P 500. &nbsp;When the Bellwether Index has underperformed the S&amp;P Index by -10% or more within a 12-month period, it has led to a bear market (or near bear market) every time since the Index\'s inception, in addition to a -19.8% correction in 2018. Note that poor relative gains in the Bellwether Index prior to both the 1987 crash and the 2020 COVID crash become obvious when viewed from this perspective.&nbsp;In practice, investors should exercise caution either when the Bellwether Index is visibly diverging from the S&amp;P 500 or when the Bellwether Index’s relative drawdown falls below -10%.&nbsp;In both cases, it could be a sign that the bull market is on its last legs.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8648,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Bellwether-Relative-Performance-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8648\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bellwether Index','InvesTech\'s Bellwether Index -a group of economically sensitive stocks- is used as a leading indicator for the stock market. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3057-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:40:30','2021-06-29 21:40:30','',3057,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8880',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8881,2,'2021-06-29 21:40:32','2021-06-29 21:40:32','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring bellwether leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, there are certain stocks that have reliably led the broad market averages at major market tops. These stocks tend to lead for a variety of reasons, including sensitivity interest rates, underlying economic conditions, or consumer spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to capture the potent signals from these stocks in the lead up to a bear market, we compiled these stocks into a composite known as the InvesTech Bellwether Index.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Underperformance in our Bellwether Index relative to the S&amp;P 500 Index is often an important warning flag that either a steep correction or a bear market lies in wait.&nbsp;Negative divergences in this Index can be clearly seen prior to the popping of the Tech Bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession in 2008.&nbsp;Other instances of underperformance in this Index, however, become more apparent when viewed from a relative basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Bellwether.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"100%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The chart below quantifies when the Bellwether Index is lagging behind the S&amp;P 500. &nbsp;When the Bellwether Index has underperformed the S&amp;P Index by -10% or more within a 12-month period, it has led to a bear market (or near bear market) every time since the Index\'s inception, in addition to a -19.8% correction in 2018. Note that poor relative gains in the Bellwether Index prior to both the 1987 crash and the 2020 COVID crash become obvious when viewed from this perspective.&nbsp;In practice, investors should exercise caution either when the Bellwether Index is visibly diverging from the S&amp;P 500 or when the Bellwether Index’s relative drawdown falls below -10%.&nbsp;In both cases, it could be a sign that the bull market is on its last legs.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8648,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Bellwether-Relative-Performance-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8648\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bellwether Index','InvesTech\'s Bellwether Index -a group of economically sensitive stocks- is used as a leading indicator for the stock market. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3057-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:40:32','2021-06-29 21:40:32','',3057,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8881',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8882,2,'2021-06-29 21:41:37','2021-06-29 21:41:37','<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7364,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Housing-Bubble-Barometer-4.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7364\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In May of 2005, we introduced the InvesTech Housing [Bubble] Barometer to keep a real-time pulse on the rapidly expanding housing bubble.&nbsp; This leading housing indicator was designed to track the stocks with the greatest sensitivity to the housing market, such as homebuilders and mortgage financing companies.&nbsp; Our barometer peaked almost immediately after its debut, and just a few months before the top and subsequent six-year decline in housing prices.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, which then ignited a frenzy in the housing market for the second time in as many decades. &nbsp;Homebuyer demand soared, as did housing prices, which grew by a record 20% from the year before! &nbsp;Unsurprisingly, our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer skyrocketed to an all-time high for the first time since the height of the housing bubble 15 years earlier. &nbsp;Going forward, a reversal in this leading indicator will likely signal that the housing bubble is beginning to unwind, just as it did in the mid-2000s…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"25%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\"><!-- wp:visualizer/chart {\"id\":3598,\"route\":\"chartSelect\"} /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer','Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer is a key indicator to watch for a warning that today\'s housing boom may be coming to an ugly end. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3055-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:41:37','2021-06-29 21:41:37','',3055,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8882',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8883,2,'2021-06-29 21:42:02','2021-06-29 21:42:02','<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7366,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Gorilla-Index.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7366\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In the late 1990s, an increasingly fewer number of stocks were responsible for the majority of the gains in the stock market. To capture this phenomenon, we created the Gorilla Index, a group of only 17 stocks that accounted for over 25% of the market-capitalization of the S&amp;P 500. We warned that a breakdown in this group of stocks would be a red flag that a bear market may have begun. This index broke through key support levels in May 2000, just two months after the market peak. <br><br>Today, a similar dynamic has developed, except for <em>even fewer</em> stocks account for an <em>even greater</em> share of the S&amp;P 500\'s market-capitalization. And as was the case in the Tech Bubble, where these stocks go, the rest of the market will undoubtedly follow...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Gorilla Index','Our InvesTech Gorilla Index tracks the mega-cap momentum stocks that the stock market has become increasingly dependent on for the past 5 years. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3048-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:42:02','2021-06-29 21:42:02','',3048,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8883',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8884,2,'2021-06-29 21:42:21','2021-06-29 21:42:21','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since our founding in 1983, we have continually tracked the performance of brokerage stocks as they have been consistent leading indicators over the past four decades. Brokerage stocks tend to decline ahead of the market in major consolidations due to their perceived sensitivity to interest rates and investor sentiment. In order to simplify and more accurately track these stocks, we created our InvesTech Brokerage Composite.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As shown in the graph below, our Brokerage Composite started to diverge from the S&amp;P 500 Index before each of the past five bear markets. The lead time provided by this tool can vary, but the end results of its signals are ultimately consistent. As such, when persistent and significant underperformance emerges in the Brokerage Composite, it cannot be ignored.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7354,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Brokerage-Composite.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7354\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"35%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:35%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Brokerage Composite','The InvesTech Brokerage Composite is a basket of well-known brokerage stocks, which have historically provided reliable warnings ahead of bear markets in the S&P 500.','inherit','closed','closed','','3038-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:42:21','2021-06-29 21:42:21','',3038,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8884',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8885,2,'2021-06-29 21:42:41','2021-06-29 21:42:41','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Market psychology tends to roll in waves… a wave of euphoria followed by a wave of pessimism, overconfidence followed by fear. As a result, markets advance (or decline) in a volatile manner as they bounce between “overbought” and “oversold” levels. Both investors and traders are easily swept along in these buying panics or selling panics, only to find themselves jumping in near a short-term peak or selling right at a short-term bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7379,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Pressure-Factor-3.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7379\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>An \"overbought\" market condition can be defined as <em>stock prices having climbed too far, too fast, with too much volume flowing into too few stocks. </em>In simple terms, the more overbought a market becomes, the higher the probability that it will level off to digest its recent rise, or even correct downward - giving back a portion of its gain. The opposite is true for an oversold market. <br><br>Our Pressure Factor was developed to measure the degree to which the market is overbought or oversold in the short term. Readings range between -100 and +100, with readings below -30 being defined as oversold and readings above +30 being defined as overbought. <br><br>Since markets can often reach an <em>extreme</em> overbought/oversold level, the Pressure Factor should be used as a trigger when it <em>exits</em> these regions. In other words... <strong>the time to purchase stocks is not when the Pressure Factor <em>enters</em> the oversold region, but rather after it bottoms and <em>exits </em>the oversold region. </strong>Conversely, the time to sell a stock is when the Pressure Factor <em>exits </em>the overbought region.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"25%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\"><!-- wp:visualizer/chart {\"id\":2783,\"route\":\"chartSelect\"} /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Pressure Factor','Our Pressure Factor was developed to measure the degree to which the market is overbought or oversold in the short term.','inherit','closed','closed','','2515-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:42:41','2021-06-29 21:42:41','',2515,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8885',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8886,2,'2021-06-29 21:43:06','2021-06-29 21:43:06','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring the real quality of internal leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7482,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/NLC-3.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7482\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"white\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Selling Vacuum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The top half of our NLC, or what we call the bullish Selling Vacuum, rises as downside leadership evaporates. More often than not, the height <em>and </em>duration of this Selling Vacuum helps to indicate how strong a new bull market is - and how long it will last. For example, the instances when this index has climbed to very strong readings of +60 or +70, it confirmed the onset of a new multi-year bull market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Distribution</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Obviously, this Negative Leadership Composite doesn\'t provide signals very often. When Distribution (shaded region) is present, it\'s time to be more cautious and carry a higher cash reserve. But when a Selling Vacuum appears (especially after 6+ months of Distribution), it\'s time to take notice and get ready to jump on a charge new bull market in stocks. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The bottom (shaded) half of our NLC, also known as bearish Distribution, measures the rate of acceleration in downside leadership. This is the most vulnerable, dangerous region for the stock market... it is when bear markets can strike.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"50%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:50%\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":62} -->\n<div style=\"height:62px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:visualizer/chart {\"id\":3590,\"route\":\"chartSelect\"} /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Negative Leadership Composite','The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. ','inherit','closed','closed','','2507-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:43:06','2021-06-29 21:43:06','',2507,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8886',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8887,2,'2021-06-29 21:44:40','2021-06-29 21:44:40','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Identifying Market Reversals with Investor Psychology</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>When investor psychology reaches an extreme, either bullish or bearish, it often marks a key turning point in the stock market.&nbsp; Yet, identifying when psychology reaches an extreme can be challenging.&nbsp; Most of the widely accessible gauges of investor sentiment are unsuitable for long-term investors due to their high degree of volatility (noise) and limited historical track records, while anecdotal evidence of extreme sentiment can be misleading as it pertains to the market as a whole.&nbsp; Consequently, we created the InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer (IIPB) to measure investor sentiment in a way that is more fitting of our long-term strategic investment approach. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer contains five complimentary and historically reliable components that gauge when investor sentiment reaches either optimistic exuberance or pessimistic gloom.&nbsp; When our IIPB reaches a reading of extreme optimism, it typically precedes a market consolidation or a bear market.&nbsp; Conversely, a reading of extreme pessimism indicates that selling pressures are nearing exhaustion and that a buying opportunity is likely at hand.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So how should our IIPB be used in practice? &nbsp;Here are three tips that will help you put this tool to its best use:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"ordered\":true,\"type\":\"1\"} -->\n<ol type=\"1\"><li><strong>Wait for a trend reversal. </strong>&nbsp;Investors can stay highly optimistic or pessimistic for extended periods of time.&nbsp; Just because the IIPB has entered one of the extreme zones doesn’t mean a reversal in the market is immediately forthcoming.</li><li><strong>Look at other indicators for context. </strong>&nbsp;Readings of extreme optimism can lead to a variety of outcomes, from mild consolidations to vicious bear markets.&nbsp; Putting IIPB readings in the context of our other technical and macroeconomic tools will help you gauge what the most likely outcome is for any given reading.</li><li><strong>Recognize that sentiment never peaks or bottoms at the same level twice. </strong>&nbsp;One of the most common problems with sentiment gauges is that they never peak or bottom at the same level at bull market tops or bear market bottoms.&nbsp; We have normalized the data in the IIPB to help remedy this problem, but there is still no <em>magic </em>number that can definitively mark the beginning or end of a cycle. &nbsp;Even so, having an awareness of the trend in investor sentiment can be an invaluable resource at turning points in the market cycle.</li></ol>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Psychology on Wall Street provides valuable insights into the opportunities and risks in the market at any given time, which makes our InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer an important tool in crafting a “safety-first” investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Investor Psychology Barometer','When investor psychology reaches an extreme, either bullish or bearish, it often marks a key turning point in the stock market.  ','inherit','closed','closed','','7373-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:44:40','2021-06-29 21:44:40','',7373,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8887',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8888,2,'2021-06-29 21:45:47','2021-06-29 21:45:47','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>InvesTech Adjusted Breadth Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech seeks to transform the “guesswork” of investing into a more precise strategy by utilizing a sophisticated (yet easy to understand) blending of economic, monetary, and technical analysis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Adjusted Breadth Index','A cumulative sum of the difference between advancing stocks and declining stocks on a given day.','inherit','closed','closed','','3059-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:45:47','2021-06-29 21:45:47','',3059,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8888',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8889,2,'2021-06-29 21:46:05','2021-06-29 21:46:05','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring bellwether leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, there are certain stocks that have reliably led the broad market averages at major market tops. These stocks tend to lead for a variety of reasons, including sensitivity interest rates, underlying economic conditions, or consumer spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to capture the potent signals from these stocks in the lead up to a bear market, we compiled these stocks into a composite known as the InvesTech Bellwether Index.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Underperformance in our Bellwether Index relative to the S&amp;P 500 Index is often an important warning flag that either a steep correction or a bear market lies in wait.&nbsp;Negative divergences in this Index can be clearly seen prior to the popping of the Tech Bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession in 2008.&nbsp;Other instances of underperformance in this Index, however, become more apparent when viewed from a relative basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"100%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The chart below quantifies when the Bellwether Index is lagging behind the S&amp;P 500. &nbsp;When the Bellwether Index has underperformed the S&amp;P Index by -10% or more within a 12-month period, it has led to a bear market (or near bear market) every time since the Index\'s inception, in addition to a -19.8% correction in 2018. Note that poor relative gains in the Bellwether Index prior to both the 1987 crash and the 2020 COVID crash become obvious when viewed from this perspective.&nbsp;In practice, investors should exercise caution either when the Bellwether Index is visibly diverging from the S&amp;P 500 or when the Bellwether Index’s relative drawdown falls below -10%.&nbsp;In both cases, it could be a sign that the bull market is on its last legs.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bellwether Index','InvesTech\'s Bellwether Index -a group of economically sensitive stocks- is used as a leading indicator for the stock market. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3057-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:46:05','2021-06-29 21:46:05','',3057,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8889',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8891,2,'2021-06-29 21:47:03','2021-06-29 21:47:03','<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In May of 2005, we introduced the InvesTech Housing [Bubble] Barometer to keep a real-time pulse on the rapidly expanding housing bubble.&nbsp; This leading housing indicator was designed to track the stocks with the greatest sensitivity to the housing market, such as homebuilders and mortgage financing companies.&nbsp; Our barometer peaked almost immediately after its debut, and just a few months before the top and subsequent six-year decline in housing prices.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, which then ignited a frenzy in the housing market for the second time in as many decades. &nbsp;Homebuyer demand soared, as did housing prices, which grew by a record 20% from the year before! &nbsp;Unsurprisingly, our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer skyrocketed to an all-time high for the first time since the height of the housing bubble 15 years earlier. &nbsp;Going forward, a reversal in this leading indicator will likely signal that the housing bubble is beginning to unwind, just as it did in the mid-2000s…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"25%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\"><!-- wp:visualizer/chart {\"id\":3598,\"route\":\"chartSelect\"} /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer','Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer is a key indicator to watch for a warning that today\'s housing boom may be coming to an ugly end. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3055-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:47:03','2021-06-29 21:47:03','',3055,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8891',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8892,2,'2021-06-29 21:47:17','2021-06-29 21:47:17','<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In May of 2005, we introduced the InvesTech Housing [Bubble] Barometer to keep a real-time pulse on the rapidly expanding housing bubble.&nbsp; This leading housing indicator was designed to track the stocks with the greatest sensitivity to the housing market, such as homebuilders and mortgage financing companies.&nbsp; Our barometer peaked almost immediately after its debut, and just a few months before the top and subsequent six-year decline in housing prices.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero and pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, which then ignited a frenzy in the housing market for the second time in as many decades. &nbsp;Homebuyer demand soared, as did housing prices, which grew by a record 20% from the year before! &nbsp;Unsurprisingly, our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer skyrocketed to an all-time high for the first time since the height of the housing bubble 15 years earlier. &nbsp;Going forward, a reversal in this leading indicator will likely signal that the housing bubble is beginning to unwind, just as it did in the mid-2000s…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer','Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer is a key indicator to watch for a warning that today\'s housing boom may be coming to an ugly end. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3055-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:47:17','2021-06-29 21:47:17','',3055,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8892',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8894,2,'2021-06-29 21:47:39','2021-06-29 21:47:39','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since our founding in 1983, we have continually tracked the performance of brokerage stocks as they have been consistent leading indicators over the past four decades. Brokerage stocks tend to decline ahead of the market in major consolidations due to their perceived sensitivity to interest rates and investor sentiment. In order to simplify and more accurately track these stocks, we created our InvesTech Brokerage Composite.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As shown in the graph below, our Brokerage Composite started to diverge from the S&amp;P 500 Index before each of the past five bear markets. The lead time provided by this tool can vary, but the end results of its signals are ultimately consistent. As such, when persistent and significant underperformance emerges in the Brokerage Composite, it cannot be ignored.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Brokerage Composite','The InvesTech Brokerage Composite is a basket of well-known brokerage stocks, which have historically provided reliable warnings ahead of bear markets in the S&P 500.','inherit','closed','closed','','3038-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:47:39','2021-06-29 21:47:39','',3038,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8894',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8895,2,'2021-06-29 21:47:56','2021-06-29 21:47:56','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Market psychology tends to roll in waves… a wave of euphoria followed by a wave of pessimism, overconfidence followed by fear. As a result, markets advance (or decline) in a volatile manner as they bounce between “overbought” and “oversold” levels. Both investors and traders are easily swept along in these buying panics or selling panics, only to find themselves jumping in near a short-term peak or selling right at a short-term bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>An \"overbought\" market condition can be defined as <em>stock prices having climbed too far, too fast, with too much volume flowing into too few stocks. </em>In simple terms, the more overbought a market becomes, the higher the probability that it will level off to digest its recent rise, or even correct downward - giving back a portion of its gain. The opposite is true for an oversold market. <br><br>Our Pressure Factor was developed to measure the degree to which the market is overbought or oversold in the short term. Readings range between -100 and +100, with readings below -30 being defined as oversold and readings above +30 being defined as overbought. <br><br>Since markets can often reach an <em>extreme</em> overbought/oversold level, the Pressure Factor should be used as a trigger when it <em>exits</em> these regions. In other words... <strong>the time to purchase stocks is not when the Pressure Factor <em>enters</em> the oversold region, but rather after it bottoms and <em>exits </em>the oversold region. </strong>Conversely, the time to sell a stock is when the Pressure Factor <em>exits </em>the overbought region.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->','Pressure Factor','Our Pressure Factor was developed to measure the degree to which the market is overbought or oversold in the short term.','inherit','closed','closed','','2515-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:47:56','2021-06-29 21:47:56','',2515,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8895',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8896,2,'2021-06-29 21:48:08','2021-06-29 21:48:08','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring the real quality of internal leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7482,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/NLC-3.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7482\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"white\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-white-background-color has-background\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Selling Vacuum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The top half of our NLC, or what we call the bullish Selling Vacuum, rises as downside leadership evaporates. More often than not, the height <em>and </em>duration of this Selling Vacuum helps to indicate how strong a new bull market is - and how long it will last. For example, the instances when this index has climbed to very strong readings of +60 or +70, it confirmed the onset of a new multi-year bull market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Distribution</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Obviously, this Negative Leadership Composite doesn\'t provide signals very often. When Distribution (shaded region) is present, it\'s time to be more cautious and carry a higher cash reserve. But when a Selling Vacuum appears (especially after 6+ months of Distribution), it\'s time to take notice and get ready to jump on a charge new bull market in stocks. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The bottom (shaded) half of our NLC, also known as bearish Distribution, measures the rate of acceleration in downside leadership. This is the most vulnerable, dangerous region for the stock market... it is when bear markets can strike.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Negative Leadership Composite','The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. ','inherit','closed','closed','','2507-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:48:08','2021-06-29 21:48:08','',2507,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8896',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8898,2,'2021-06-29 21:49:07','2021-06-29 21:49:07','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring the real quality of internal leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Selling Vacuum</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The top half of our NLC, or what we call the bullish Selling Vacuum, rises as downside leadership evaporates. More often than not, the height <em>and </em>duration of this Selling Vacuum helps to indicate how strong a new bull market is - and how long it will last. For example, the instances when this index has climbed to very strong readings of +60 or +70, it confirmed the onset of a new multi-year bull market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Distribution</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Obviously, this Negative Leadership Composite doesn\'t provide signals very often. When Distribution (shaded region) is present, it\'s time to be more cautious and carry a higher cash reserve. But when a Selling Vacuum appears (especially after 6+ months of Distribution), it\'s time to take notice and get ready to jump on a charge new bull market in stocks. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The bottom (shaded) half of our NLC, also known as bearish Distribution, measures the rate of acceleration in downside leadership. This is the most vulnerable, dangerous region for the stock market... it is when bear markets can strike.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Negative Leadership Composite','The Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has served as one of InvesTech Research\'s most reliable tools over our 40-year history for navigating bull and bear markets alike. ','inherit','closed','closed','','2507-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:49:07','2021-06-29 21:49:07','',2507,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8898',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8900,3,'2021-06-29 21:53:31','2021-06-29 21:53:31','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumers optimism emerges, but it\'s not all good news…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer optimism has been held down by the pandemic over the past year, but attitudes have started to improve as COVID-19 disruptions begin to fade.&nbsp; Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan jumped to the highest level in over a year in April –due in large part to improvements in the labor market– which should be supportive of the economic recovery in the months ahead.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While the rebound in Consumer Sentiment is a positive development, the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have climbed to an 8-year high is a major concern.&nbsp; The University of Michigan expressed their concern over this trend by stating that “<em>contingency plans are urgently needed to avoid declining inflation-adjusted incomes and surging interest costs.</em>” In other words, the Federal Reserve and the federal government should be prepared to combat rising inflation as it is becoming a greater possibility.&nbsp; We concur.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":7941,\"width\":742,\"height\":489,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/insight.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7941\" width=\"742\" height=\"489\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer optimism emerges, yet inflation lurks','Consumer optimism has been held down by the pandemic over the past year, but attitudes have started to improve as COVID-19 disruptions begin to fade. ','inherit','closed','closed','','7727-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:53:31','2021-06-29 21:53:31','',7727,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8900',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8901,3,'2021-06-29 21:53:47','2021-06-29 21:53:47','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer optimism emerges, yet inflation lurks</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer optimism has been held down by the pandemic over the past year, but attitudes have started to improve as COVID-19 disruptions begin to fade.&nbsp; Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan jumped to the highest level in over a year in April –due in large part to improvements in the labor market– which should be supportive of the economic recovery in the months ahead.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While the rebound in Consumer Sentiment is a positive development, the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have climbed to an 8-year high is a major concern.&nbsp; The University of Michigan expressed their concern over this trend by stating that “<em>contingency plans are urgently needed to avoid declining inflation-adjusted incomes and surging interest costs.</em>” In other words, the Federal Reserve and the federal government should be prepared to combat rising inflation as it is becoming a greater possibility.&nbsp; We concur.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":7941,\"width\":742,\"height\":489,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/insight.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7941\" width=\"742\" height=\"489\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer optimism emerges, yet inflation lurks','Consumer optimism has been held down by the pandemic over the past year, but attitudes have started to improve as COVID-19 disruptions begin to fade. ','inherit','closed','closed','','7727-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 21:53:47','2021-06-29 21:53:47','',7727,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8901',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8902,3,'2021-06-29 22:22:17','2021-06-29 22:22:17','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but… at a cost</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher. &nbsp;Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by favorable views of the labor market. &nbsp;Over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record. &nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that may lead to prolonged wage inflation. &nbsp;Additionally, concerns about inflation are being compounded by the fact that consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high. &nbsp;This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 22:22:17','2021-06-29 22:22:17','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8902',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8903,3,'2024-01-16 15:11:17','2021-06-29 22:30:20',' ','','','publish','closed','closed','','8903','','','2024-01-16 15:11:17','2024-01-16 21:11:17','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8903',7,'nav_menu_item','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8905,3,'2021-06-29 22:36:51','2021-06-29 22:36:51','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Indicators are updated Daily</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Technical Anaylsis is a powerful tool in today\'s stock market</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There is no single indicator that can always forecast the market.  At InvesTech Research, we have developed and follow an arsenal of time-proven indicators.  These indicators form the basis of our \"safety-first\" strategy.  The following indicators are updated daily so you can monitor them on a real-time basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Indicators Top Text','','inherit','closed','closed','','6667-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 22:36:51','2021-06-29 22:36:51','',6667,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8905',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8907,3,'2021-06-29 22:38:43','2021-06-29 22:38:43','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Technical Anaylsis is a powerful tool in today\'s stock market</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There is no single indicator that can always forecast the market.  At InvesTech Research, we have developed and follow an arsenal of time-proven indicators.  These indicators form the basis of our \"safety-first\" strategy.  The following indicators are updated daily so you can monitor them on a real-time basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Indicators Top Text','','inherit','closed','closed','','6667-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 22:38:43','2021-06-29 22:38:43','',6667,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8907',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8908,3,'2021-06-29 22:39:57','2021-06-29 22:39:57','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.&nbsp; Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by more favorable views of the labor market.&nbsp; In fact, over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that could lead to persistent wage inflation.&nbsp; According to the Conference Board’s survey, concerns about inflation are already present as consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.&nbsp; This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 22:39:57','2021-06-29 22:39:57','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8908',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8910,2,'2021-06-29 22:55:29','2021-06-29 22:55:29','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In the late 1990s, an increasingly fewer number of stocks were responsible for the majority of the gains in the stock market. To capture this phenomenon, we created the Gorilla Index, a group of only 17 stocks that accounted for over 25% of the market-capitalization of the S&amp;P 500. We warned that a breakdown in this group of stocks would be a red flag that a bear market may have begun. This index broke through key support levels in May 2000, just two months after the market peak. <br><br>Today, a similar dynamic has developed, except for <em>even fewer</em> stocks account for an <em>even greater</em> share of the S&amp;P 500\'s market-capitalization. And as was the case in the Tech Bubble, where these stocks go, the rest of the market will undoubtedly follow...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Gorilla Index','Our InvesTech Gorilla Index tracks the mega-cap momentum stocks that the stock market has become increasingly dependent on for the past 5 years. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3048-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 22:55:29','2021-06-29 22:55:29','',3048,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8910',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8911,3,'2021-06-18 12:30:43','2021-06-18 12:30:43','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A leading inflation indicator points higher</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.&nbsp; As shown in the graph below, the FIBER LII has historically led turning points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. While certain elements of today’s inflation will likely moderate in the months ahead, this historically reliable forecasting model indicates that inflation is likely to continue higher in the near term.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":9079,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/FIBER-LII-CPI.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9079\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":50} -->\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->','Leading inflation indicator points higher','Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.','publish','closed','closed','','a-leading-inflation-indicator-points-higher','','','2021-10-20 12:06:56','2021-10-20 18:06:56','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-library&#038;p=8911',0,'investech-library','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8913,3,'2021-06-29 23:30:43','2021-06-29 23:30:43','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.  As shown in the graph below, the FIBER LII has historically led turning points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. While certain elements of today’s inflation will likely moderate in the months ahead, this historically reliable tool indicates that inflationary pressures as a whole could be more lasting.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8912,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/FIBER-LII-CPI.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8912\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Leading inflation indicators point higher','','inherit','closed','closed','','8911-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 23:30:43','2021-06-29 23:30:43','',8911,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8913',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8914,3,'2021-06-29 23:30:46','2021-06-29 23:30:46','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.  As shown in the graph below, the FIBER LII has historically led turning points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. While certain elements of today’s inflation will likely moderate in the months ahead, this historically reliable tool indicates that inflationary pressures as a whole could be more lasting.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8912,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/FIBER-LII-CPI.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8912\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Leading inflation indicators point higher','','inherit','closed','closed','','8911-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 23:30:46','2021-06-29 23:30:46','',8911,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8914',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8915,3,'2021-06-29 23:32:29','2021-06-29 23:32:29','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.&nbsp; As shown in the graph below, the FIBER LII has historically led turning points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. While certain elements of today’s inflation will likely moderate in the months ahead, this historically reliable tool indicates that inflationary pressures as a whole could be more lasting.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8912,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/FIBER-LII-CPI.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8912\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Leading inflation indicators point higher','Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.','inherit','closed','closed','','8911-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 23:32:29','2021-06-29 23:32:29','',8911,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8915',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8916,3,'2021-06-29 23:35:14','2021-06-29 23:35:14','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.  This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.  While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-29 23:35:14','2021-06-29 23:35:14','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8916',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8924,3,'2021-06-30 15:44:22','2021-06-30 15:44:22','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.&nbsp; Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by more favorable views of the labor market.&nbsp; In fact, over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that could lead to persistent wage inflation.&nbsp; According to the Conference Board’s survey, concerns about inflation are already present as consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.&nbsp; This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 15:44:22','2021-06-30 15:44:22','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8924',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8925,3,'2021-06-30 15:46:17','2021-06-30 15:46:17','','20210629confidence','','inherit','closed','closed','','20210629confidence','','','2021-06-30 15:46:17','2021-06-30 15:46:17','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/20210629confidence.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8926,3,'2021-06-30 15:46:39','2021-06-30 15:46:39','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.&nbsp; Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by more favorable views of the labor market.&nbsp; In fact, over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that could lead to persistent wage inflation.&nbsp; According to the Conference Board’s survey, concerns about inflation are already present as consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.&nbsp; This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/20210629confidence.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 15:46:39','2021-06-30 15:46:39','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8926',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8927,3,'2021-06-30 15:46:42','2021-06-30 15:46:42','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Consumer Confidence rebounds, but at what cost?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.&nbsp; This month’s report showed broad strength, with both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components climbing higher.&nbsp; Gains in the Present Situation component were driven by more favorable views of the labor market.&nbsp; In fact, over 54% of consumers view jobs as “plentiful” versus only 11% who see them as “hard to get”, one of the widest differentials on record.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>While this bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead, it highlights that there is a shortage of labor that could lead to persistent wage inflation.&nbsp; According to the Conference Board’s survey, concerns about inflation are already present as consumers’ inflation expectations have surged to a 13-year high.&nbsp; This will be a key development to watch going forward, as the longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk of inflationary psychology taking hold.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8870,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Consumer-Confidence-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8870\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/20210629confidence.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Consumer Confidence rebounds, but...','Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.','inherit','closed','closed','','8852-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 15:46:42','2021-06-30 15:46:42','',8852,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8927',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8929,3,'2021-06-30 16:03:08','2021-06-30 16:03:08','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:03:08','2021-06-30 16:03:08','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8929',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8930,3,'2021-06-30 16:03:11','2021-06-30 16:03:11','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:03:11','2021-06-30 16:03:11','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8930',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8931,3,'2021-06-30 16:03:35','2021-06-30 16:03:35','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:03:35','2021-06-30 16:03:35','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8931',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8932,2,'2021-06-30 16:04:11','2021-06-30 16:04:11','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Webcam of Big Mountain</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking north from our office in Whitefish, we have an incredible view of Big Mountain, which stands just west of Glacier National Park and is part of the Flathead National Forest.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:html -->\n<img src=\"https://www.investech.com/webcamimg.php\">\n<!-- /wp:html -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Our Favorite Photos</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the clouds have rolled in or the sun has set, then you can also browse some of our favorite photos taken.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"ids\":[2230,2229,2228,2227,2226,1669],\"linkTo\":\"file\",\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-3 is-cropped\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2230\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-1/\" class=\"wp-image-2230\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2229\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-5/\" class=\"wp-image-2229\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2228\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-4/\" class=\"wp-image-2228\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2227\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-3/\" class=\"wp-image-2227\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2226\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-2-2/\" class=\"wp-image-2226\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"1669\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/big-mt-webcam/\" class=\"wp-image-1669\"/></a></figure></li></ul></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"100%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>About InvesTech Research</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dedicated to bringing sophisticated analysis of the stock market to the average investor, InvesTech Research began national circulation of its <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter in December 1982. Today, InvesTech publishes the InvesTech Research Market Newsletter and the Interim Bulletin, which has earned widespread recognition for its time-proven risk allocation strategy, as well as its in-depth analysis of the Federal Reserve. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/about-us/\">Learn more about us here.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Webcam','','inherit','closed','closed','','862-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:04:11','2021-06-30 16:04:11','',862,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8932',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8934,3,'2021-06-30 16:05:13','2021-06-30 16:05:13','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>No relief on the inflation front</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.  This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.  While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:05:13','2021-06-30 16:05:13','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8934',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8935,3,'2021-06-30 16:06:03','2021-06-30 16:06:03','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>No relief on the inflation front</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:06:03','2021-06-30 16:06:03','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8935',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8936,3,'2021-06-30 16:07:38','2021-06-30 16:07:38','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>No relief on the inflation front</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.&nbsp; Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.&nbsp; This was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for the second straight month, and as a result, it has started to pressure Fed officials to scale back on their stimulus efforts.&nbsp; While the debate rages on as to the persistence of today’s pricing pressures, as long as the leading inflation gauges are moving higher (see last Friday’s <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/leading-inflation-indicators-point-higher/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report</a>), any inflationary surprises will likely continue to be to the upside.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8825,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Core-PCE-2.jpg\" alt=\"Core personal expenditures graph shows highest reading since 1992.  \" class=\"wp-image-8825\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":52} -->\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/mi-inflation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">PDF format.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','No relief on the inflation front','Inflation is continuing to heat up according to today’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.  Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.4% in May – the highest level since 1992.','inherit','closed','closed','','8813-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:07:38','2021-06-30 16:07:38','',8813,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8936',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8937,2,'2021-06-30 16:08:36','2021-06-30 16:08:36','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Webcam of Big Mountain</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking north from our office in Whitefish, we have an incredible view of Big Mountain, which stands just west of Glacier National Park and is part of the Flathead National Forest.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:html -->\n<img src=\"https://www.investech.com/webcamimg.php\">\n<!-- /wp:html -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Our Favorite Photos</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the clouds have rolled in or the sun has set, then you can also browse some of our favorite photos taken.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"ids\":[2230,2229,2228,2227,2226,1669],\"linkTo\":\"file\",\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery columns-3 is-cropped\"><ul class=\"blocks-gallery-grid\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2230\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-1.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-1/\" class=\"wp-image-2230\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2229\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-5.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-5/\" class=\"wp-image-2229\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2228\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-4.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-4/\" class=\"wp-image-2228\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2227\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-3.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-3/\" class=\"wp-image-2227\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2226\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Webcam-2.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/webcam-2-2/\" class=\"wp-image-2226\"/></a></figure></li><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam.jpg\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"1669\" data-full-url=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/big-mt-webcam.jpg\" data-link=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/big-mt-webcam/\" class=\"wp-image-1669\"/></a></figure></li></ul></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:group -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>About InvesTech Research</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dedicated to bringing sophisticated analysis of the stock market to the average investor, InvesTech Research began national circulation of its <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter in December 1982. Today, InvesTech publishes the InvesTech Research Market Newsletter and the Interim Bulletin, which has earned widespread recognition for its time-proven risk allocation strategy, as well as its in-depth analysis of the Federal Reserve. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/about-us/\">Learn more about us here.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Webcam','','inherit','closed','closed','','862-revision-v1','','','2021-06-30 16:08:36','2021-06-30 16:08:36','',862,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8937',0,'revision','',0);
