INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8190,3,'2021-06-08 19:52:17','2021-06-08 19:52:17','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Measuring bellwether leadership...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, there are certain bellwether stocks, and even full sectors, that have characteristically led the broad market averages at major market tops. At different times over recent decades, these have included stocks like General Motors, IBM, JP Morgan and GE. Yet it is primarily three economically and monetarily sensitive sectors –Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Utilities– that have earned the right to be called true bellwethers.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":7352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Bellwether.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":100} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>These segments of the market have a high sensitivity to the underlying economic conditions, which often causes them to lead the blue chip stock market averages at market tops and outperform coming out of market bottoms.  Watch for a negative divergence in this index versus the S&amp;P 500 as a sign of caution.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bellwether Index','InvesTech\'s Bellwether Index -a group of economically sensitive stocks- is used as a leading indicator for the stock market. ','inherit','closed','closed','','3057-revision-v1','','','2021-06-08 19:52:17','2021-06-08 19:52:17','',3057,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8190',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8193,3,'2021-06-08 19:56:39','2021-06-08 19:56:39','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Technical Anaylsis is a powerful tool in today\'s stock market</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There is no single indicator that can always forecast the market.  At InvesTech Research, we have developed and follow an arsenal of time-proven indicators.  These indicators form the basis of our \"safety-first\" strategy.  Monitor these indicators as they are updated daily.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Indicators Top Text','','inherit','closed','closed','','6667-revision-v1','','','2021-06-08 19:56:39','2021-06-08 19:56:39','',6667,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8193',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8198,3,'2021-06-08 20:51:09','2021-06-08 20:51:09','<!-- wp:shortcode -->\n[woocommerce_one_page_checkout product_ids=\"1205\"]\n<!-- /wp:shortcode -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Subscribe','','inherit','closed','closed','','1421-revision-v1','','','2021-06-08 20:51:09','2021-06-08 20:51:09','',1421,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8198',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8207,3,'2021-06-08 22:29:20','2021-06-08 22:29:20','','Canary-Index','','inherit','','closed','','canary-index-2','','','2021-06-08 22:29:20','2021-06-08 22:29:20','',7976,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Canary-Index.svg',0,'attachment','image/svg+xml',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8208,3,'2021-06-08 22:29:24','2021-06-08 22:29:24','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Asset bubbles have historically unwound in stages, with the areas of greatest speculation falling first. &nbsp;Such was the case in the Tech Bubble during the late 90s, when the dot-com heavy NASDAQ Composite Index sank over -34% in five weeks after its March 2000 peak.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We designed the InvesTech Canary Index to provide a similar early warning that conditions could be getting dicey – just as miners used a canary to warn of dangerous gases when descending into the coal mine in the early 1900s. &nbsp;Our Canary Index is comprised of approximately 20 of the hottest, most speculative, and overvalued stocks in the market, including “story stocks”, hot IPOs, SPACs, and other favorites of the speculative crowd. &nbsp;Despite their extreme valuations, most of these member stocks have never turned a profit and many likely never will. &nbsp;Keep a close eye on our Canary Index, for if it starts to look sickly, it could confirm that the speculative peak is in place.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8207,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Canary-Index.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8207\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Canary Index','','inherit','closed','closed','','7976-revision-v1','','','2021-06-08 22:29:24','2021-06-08 22:29:24','',7976,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8208',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8209,3,'2021-06-08 22:32:24','2021-06-08 22:32:24','','Canary-Index-1','','inherit','','closed','','canary-index-1','','','2021-06-08 22:32:24','2021-06-08 22:32:24','',7976,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Canary-Index-1.svg',0,'attachment','image/svg+xml',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8210,3,'2021-06-08 22:32:27','2021-06-08 22:32:27','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Asset bubbles have historically unwound in stages, with the areas of greatest speculation falling first. &nbsp;Such was the case in the Tech Bubble during the late 90s, when the dot-com heavy NASDAQ Composite Index sank over -34% in five weeks after its March 2000 peak.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We designed the InvesTech Canary Index to provide a similar early warning that conditions could be getting dicey – just as miners used a canary to warn of dangerous gases when descending into the coal mine in the early 1900s. &nbsp;Our Canary Index is comprised of approximately 20 of the hottest, most speculative, and overvalued stocks in the market, including “story stocks”, hot IPOs, SPACs, and other favorites of the speculative crowd. &nbsp;Despite their extreme valuations, most of these member stocks have never turned a profit and many likely never will. &nbsp;Keep a close eye on our Canary Index, for if it starts to look sickly, it could confirm that the speculative peak is in place.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8209,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Canary-Index-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8209\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Canary Index','','inherit','closed','closed','','7976-revision-v1','','','2021-06-08 22:32:27','2021-06-08 22:32:27','',7976,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8210',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8212,3,'2022-02-16 17:55:37','2022-02-16 23:55:37','Track the ups and downs of the U.S. economy for over 90 years on this deluxe 24\" x 34\" Wall Chart. With this easy-to-follow chart, you\'ll see at a glance the effect that inflation, deflation, and key interest rates had on major market averages. This chart is suitable for framing and helps to put today\'s volatile economy into historical perspective.\n\n<strong>Subscribe for 2 or more years and this wall chart will be included in your subscription purchase at no cost to you!  Simply visit our Special Offers, https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/, and select a long-term subscription.  </strong>','InvesTech American Economy Wall Chart','','inherit','closed','closed','','3061-autosave-v1','','','2022-02-16 17:55:37','2022-02-16 23:55:37','',3061,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8212',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8214,3,'2021-06-09 16:26:56','2021-06-09 16:26:56','<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>InvesTech presents our New American Economy Wall Chart</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now you can track the ups and downs of the U.S. economy for over 90 years on this deluxe 24 x 34\" Wall Chart. With this easy-to-follow chart, you\'ll see at a glance the effect that inflation, deflation and key interest rates had on major market averages.  This chart is included FREE when you subscribe for 2 or more years.  Or purchase separately with the following link for $69.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-secondary\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-secondary\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/investechs-american-economy-wall-chart/\">Buy Now</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":7433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-wall-chart-low-res.jpg\" alt=\"Official InvesTech research New American Economy Wall Chart\" class=\"wp-image-7433\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">This deluxe 24 x 34” historic wall chart makes any room a command center of business.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Wall Chart Call to Purchase','','inherit','closed','closed','','6600-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 16:26:56','2021-06-09 16:26:56','',6600,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8214',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (14043,2,'2021-12-17 17:37:34','2021-12-17 23:37:34','','AD-Divergence','','inherit','closed','closed','','ad-divergence-2','','','2021-12-17 17:37:34','2021-12-17 23:37:34','',14041,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/AD-Divergence-1.svg',0,'attachment','image/svg+xml',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (14044,2,'2021-12-17 17:37:43','2021-12-17 23:37:43','','AD-Divergence','','inherit','closed','closed','','ad-divergence-3','','','2021-12-17 17:37:43','2021-12-17 23:37:43','',14041,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/AD-Divergence.svg',0,'attachment','image/svg+xml',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8221,3,'2021-06-09 17:04:17','2021-06-09 17:04:17','','aditya-vyas-7ygsBEajOG0-unsplash','','inherit','closed','closed','','aditya-vyas-7ygsbeajog0-unsplash','','','2021-06-09 17:04:17','2021-06-09 17:04:17','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/aditya-vyas-7ygsBEajOG0-unsplash-1.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (14041,2,'2020-12-17 17:36:48','2020-12-17 23:36:48','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Stock market “breadth” or participation has always been an extremely valuable tool at market tops.&nbsp; As stocks reach overpriced levels, it’s common to see investors become more selective in their stock purchases, especially if inflation fears appear and/or interest rates begin to rise.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Advance-Decline (A-D) Line (cumulative total of daily advancing issues minus declining issues) is the most prevalent tool in monitoring breadth.&nbsp; However, there are two inherent limitations to this tool.&nbsp; First, one must visually compare the line’s divergence with the graph of a market index such as the S&amp;P 500, and accurate measurement can be difficult.&nbsp; Second, the A-D Line became upwardly biased following the implementation of a decimalized pricing system in 2000 (minimum price increments of 0.01 instead of 1/16).&nbsp; As a result, many measures of market breadth that had historically provided early warning, including the A-D Line, now appear to offer less of an advanced signal than in the past.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>One tool that solves for both problems mentioned above is our proprietary A/D Divergence Index.&nbsp; This tool measures what the S&amp;P 500 Index should hypothetically be trading for given the trend in breadth, versus where the Index is actually trading (adjusting for the effects of decimalization).&nbsp; As a result, when this tool is moving sideways, it’s an indication that price and breadth are moving proportionately, which is a positive confirmation for the bull market.&nbsp; However, when this indicator is in steep decline, it shows that breadth is not supportive of S&amp;P 500 performance and is a warning that the market is more vulnerable to a downturn.&nbsp; When this downward trend reaches a historically meaningful level in conjunction with other breadth measures, it becomes an excellent warning of an impending bear market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','AD Divergence','Excerpt goes here.','publish','closed','closed','','ad-divergence','','','2022-01-19 10:05:56','2022-01-19 16:05:56','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?post_type=investech-indicators&#038;p=14041',0,'investech-indicators','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (14042,2,'2021-12-17 17:36:48','2021-12-17 23:36:48','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Text goes here.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','AD Divergence','','inherit','closed','closed','','14041-revision-v1','','','2021-12-17 17:36:48','2021-12-17 23:36:48','',14041,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=14042',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8227,3,'2021-06-09 17:09:10','2021-06-09 17:09:10','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Asset bubbles have historically unwound in stages, with the areas of greatest speculation falling first. &nbsp;Such was the case in the Tech Bubble during the late 90s, when the dot-com heavy NASDAQ Composite Index sank over -34% in five weeks after its March 2000 peak.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We designed the InvesTech Canary Index to provide a similar early warning that conditions could be getting dicey – just as miners used a canary to warn of dangerous gases when descending into the coal mine in the early 1900s. &nbsp;Our Canary Index is comprised of approximately 20 of the hottest, most speculative, and overvalued stocks in the market, including “story stocks”, hot IPOs, SPACs, and other favorites of the speculative crowd. &nbsp;Despite their extreme valuations, most of these member stocks have never turned a profit and many likely never will. &nbsp;Keep a close eye on our Canary Index, for if it starts to look sickly, it could confirm that the speculative peak is in place.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":8209,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Canary-Index-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8209\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','Canary Index','Asset bubbles have historically unwound in stages, with the areas of greatest speculation falling first.  ','inherit','closed','closed','','7976-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 17:09:10','2021-06-09 17:09:10','',7976,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8227',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8230,2,'2021-06-09 17:14:53','2021-06-09 17:14:53','','bubble-unsplash-1583265555313-9062075c1537','','inherit','closed','closed','','bubble-unsplash-1583265555313-9062075c1537','','','2021-06-09 17:14:53','2021-06-09 17:14:53','',1584,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bubble-unsplash-1583265555313-9062075c1537.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8231,3,'2021-06-09 17:18:57','2021-06-09 17:18:57','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Technical Anaylsis is a powerful tool in today\'s stock market</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There is no single indicator that can always forecast the market.  At InvesTech Research, we have developed and follow an arsenal of time-proven indicators.  These indicators form the basis of our \"safety-first\" strategy.  The following indicators are updated daily so you can monitor them on a real-time basis.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Indicators Top Text','','inherit','closed','closed','','6667-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 17:18:57','2021-06-09 17:18:57','',6667,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8231',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8238,2,'2021-06-09 18:04:11','2021-06-09 18:04:11','','1987-crash-unsplash-1611974789855-9c2a0a7236a3','','inherit','closed','closed','','1987-crash-unsplash-1611974789855-9c2a0a7236a3','','','2021-06-09 18:04:11','2021-06-09 18:04:11','',1582,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/1987-crash-unsplash-1611974789855-9c2a0a7236a3.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8240,3,'2021-06-09 18:11:15','2021-06-09 18:11:15','','performance','','inherit','','closed','','performance','','','2021-06-09 18:11:15','2021-06-09 18:11:15','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8242,3,'2021-06-09 18:12:15','2021-06-09 18:12:15','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8240,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8240\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 464.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 307.6% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through March 31, 2021, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.5% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.8%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 18:12:15','2021-06-09 18:12:15','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8242',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8243,3,'2021-06-09 18:12:37','2021-06-09 18:12:37','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5840,\"width\":202,\"height\":256,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/itperfgraph-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5840\" width=\"202\" height=\"256\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 440.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 283.9% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.4% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.6%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 18:12:37','2021-06-09 18:12:37','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8243',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8244,3,'2021-06-09 18:13:12','2021-06-09 18:13:12','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5840,\"width\":403,\"height\":512,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/itperfgraph-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5840\" width=\"403\" height=\"512\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 440.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 283.9% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.4% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.6%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 18:13:12','2021-06-09 18:13:12','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8244',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8246,3,'2021-06-09 18:15:51','2021-06-09 18:15:51','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8240,\"width\":403,\"height\":512,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8240\" width=\"403\" height=\"512\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 464.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 307.6% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.5% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.8%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 18:15:51','2021-06-09 18:15:51','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8246',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8247,2,'2021-06-09 18:15:54','2021-06-09 18:15:54','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8245,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/flathead-lake/flathead-lake-unsplash01587424670368-de8887d8c719/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/flathead-lake-unsplash01587424670368-de8887d8c719.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8245 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Lake Recreation</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Flathead Lake is a large natural lake in northwest Montana and is the largest natural freshwater lake by surface area that is west of the Mississippi in the contiguous United States. The lake is a remnant of the ancient, massive glacial dammed lake, Lake Missoula of the era of the last interglacial.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Recreation on and around the lake includes sailing, powerboating, waterskiing, swimming, fishing, picnicking, and camping. In the summer, roadside stands along the east shore offer a variety of locally grown cherries, apples, plums, and other fruits. There are numerous motels and rental cabins in addition to public campgrounds scattered all around the shoreline.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit <a href=\"https://discoverkalispell.com/things-to-do/flathead-lake/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Discover Flathead</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->','Flathead Lake','Flathead Lake is a large natural lake in northwest Montana and is the largest natural freshwater lake by surface area that is west of the source of the Missouri River in the contiguous United States. The lake is a remnant of the ancient, massive glacial dammed lake, Lake Missoula of the era of the last interglacial.','inherit','closed','closed','','6903-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 18:15:54','2021-06-09 18:15:54','',6903,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8247',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8251,2,'2021-06-09 19:09:35','2021-06-09 19:09:35','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8250,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/whitefish-chamber-of-commerce/whitefish-mt-unsplash-1539619219399-5dce796f647b/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/whitefish-mt-unsplash-1539619219399-5dce796f647b.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8250 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Welcome</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Whether you’re looking for a great place to raise a family, run a business, enjoy your retirement or simply take a well-deserved vacation, look no further—Whitefish, Montana has something for everyone! </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Founded at the turn of the 20th Century when the Great Northern Railway chose to put its northwestern Montana headquarters here, modern-day Whitefish is an island of commerce and culture, surrounded by an ocean of mountain recreation. Nestled at the northernmost tip of the majestic Flathead Valley, Whitefish offers residents a peaceful—yet active—lifestyle that is the envy of communities near and far. All you have to do is pick your pleasure—from hiking &amp; biking to boating &amp; cycling, from skiing &amp; skating, to floatin’ &amp; fishin’… you’ll find all that (and more!) in Whitefish.&nbsp;</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit <a href=\"https://www.whitefishchamber.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Whitefish Chamber of Commerce.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->','Whitefish Chamber of Commerce','Founded at the turn of the 20th Century when the Great Northern Railway chose to put its northwestern Montana headquarters here, modern-day Whitefish is an island of commerce and culture, surrounded by an ocean of mountain recreation.','inherit','closed','closed','','6900-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 19:09:35','2021-06-09 19:09:35','',6900,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8251',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8253,2,'2021-06-09 19:13:29','2021-06-09 19:13:29','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8252,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/alpine-theatre-project/alpine-theatre-pexels-photo-109669/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/alpine-theatre-pexels-photo-109669.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8252 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Whitefish Theatre</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Alpine Theatre Project has been bringing Broadway talent, production, and education to Flathead Valley residents since 2004. Its artists have performed in over 190 Broadway productions, won 4 Tony Awards, 7 Emmy Awards, 4 Golden Globe Awards, and 1 Academy Award. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since its founding, ATP has become one of the most talked-about and unique cultural institutions in the Inland Northwest, with notices in the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, American Theatre Magazine, and Frommer\'s Budget Travel Magazine, which named ATP as one of the attractions that make Whitefish, Montana \"One of the Top 10 Coolest Small Towns in America.\"</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit <a href=\"https://atpwhitefish.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Alpine Theatre Project</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->','Alpine Theatre Project','Alpine Theatre Project is a 501 nonprofit professional theatre company based in Whitefish, Montana. It presents musicals, plays and concerts. It also provides education and outreach to students in Montana\'s Flathead Valley.','inherit','closed','closed','','6891-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 19:13:29','2021-06-09 19:13:29','',6891,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8253',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8255,2,'2021-06-09 19:22:53','2021-06-09 19:22:53','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8254,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/whitefish-mountain-resort/webcam-whitefish-ski-resort/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/webcam-whitefish-ski-resort.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8254 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Ranked No. 3 Best Resort in the West by SKI Magazine Readers</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Whitefish Mountain Resort is a ski resort in the western United States, located on Big Mountain in northwestern Montana. It is west of Glacier National Park in the Flathead National Forest, 4 miles from the town of Whitefish.   WMR offers four seasons of fun in addition to 3,000+ acres of skiing.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit <a href=\"https://skiwhitefish.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Whitefish Mountain Resort</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->','Whitefish Mountain Resort','Whitefish Mountain Resort is a ski resort in the western United States, located at Big Mountain in northwestern Montana. It is west of Glacier National Park in the Flathead National Forest, 4 miles from the town of Whitefish.','inherit','closed','closed','','6888-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 19:22:53','2021-06-09 19:22:53','',6888,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8255',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8257,2,'2021-06-09 19:26:37','2021-06-09 19:26:37','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8256,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/whitefish-trail/whitefish-trail-pexels-photo-1496373/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/whitefish-trail-pexels-photo-1496373.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8256 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Whitefish Legacy Partners</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Whitefish Trail currently consists of 12 trailheads and 42+ miles of natural surface trail comprised of stacked loops, scenic overlooks, single‐track trails, and gated logging roads.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Whitefish Trail is the gateway for hikers, bikers, runners, skiers, and equestrians to beautiful forests, prime wildlife habitat, sweeping vistas, pristine lakes, and inter-connected recreation areas.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit <a href=\"https://www.whitefishlegacy.org/recreation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Whitefish Legacy Partners</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->','Whitefish Trail','The Whitefish Trail currently consists of 12 trailheads and 42+ miles of natural surface trail comprised of stacked loops, scenic overlooks, single‐track trails, and gated logging roads.','inherit','closed','closed','','6885-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 19:26:37','2021-06-09 19:26:37','',6885,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8257',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8260,3,'2021-06-09 20:36:09','2021-06-09 20:36:09','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:36:09','2021-06-09 20:36:09','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8260',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8262,3,'2021-06-09 20:46:23','2021-06-09 20:46:23','<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":8} -->\n<div style=\"height:8px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Holland, 1636</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\",\"width\":\"60%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\" style=\"flex-basis:60%\"><!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One would suppose that there must have been some great virtue in this flower to have made it so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the perfume of the rose – hardly the beauty of the ‘sweet, sweet-pea;’ neither is it as enduring as either…\"</p><p>\"At last, however, the more prudent began to see that this folly could not last for ever… It was seen that somebody must lose fearfully in the end. As this conviction spread, prices fell, and never rose again. Confidence was destroyed, and a universal panic seized upon the dealers.\"</p><cite>– Tulipomania, Holland, 1636, excerpted from Extraordinary Popular Delusions &amp; the Madness of Crowds, written by Charles Mackay 1841</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4887,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Jan_Brueghel_the_Younger_Satire_Tulip_Mania_1640-1024x655.jpg\" alt=\"Painting, A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel, c. 1640\" class=\"wp-image-4887\"/><figcaption>A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel the Younger (ca. 1640) depicts speculators as brainless monkeys in contemporary upper-class dress.</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Fast forward to 2017: Cryptocurrency Markets</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The quotes above referring to the Tulipomania of the 1600s may seem bizarre and distant to many. However, we see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Wealth Managers Are Being Inundated With Calls About Bitcoin</p><cite>Bloomberg, 11/21/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Someone in 2010 bought 2 pizzas with 10,000 bitcoins – which today would be worth $100 million</p><cite>Business Insider, 11/28/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Owning bitcoin is so much damn fun</p><cite>Yahoo! Finance, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin swings from bull to bear and back in a day </p><cite>Financial Times, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin’s Wildest Ride: Up 40% in 40 Hours </p><cite>Wall Street Journal, 12/7/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin Futures Debut With 26% Rally, Trigger CBOE Trading Halts</p><cite>Bloomberg, 12/11/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin and the Lure of Decentralization</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bitcoin is the most widely-recognized and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Specifically, a cryptocurrency is a digital currency which has no central issuing or regulating authority, but instead uses a decentralized system of computers to record transactions and manage the issuance of new units. The digital asset relies on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions. While over 1,000 unique cryptocurrencies exist today, they all share a common purpose: to enable and serve decentralized applications – a way to create a self-supporting service that no single entity operates or regulates.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Way of the future? It’s complicated…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Cryptocurrencies may sound like the way of the future, but they are incredibly complex and difficult to understand. To illustrate, let’s take a high-level look at a theoretical transaction paid for in Bitcoin, as depicted by the flow chart at the top of page 2. Once the transaction is proposed, independent entities (called “miners”) compete on the open network to time stamp and verify the transaction by performing computationally difficult calculations. The reward for winning the elaborate race to verify and add the transaction to the public digital ledger (the blockchain) is a fraction of the transaction’s value, plus a processing fee, both denominated in Bitcoin. The integrity of the ledger is upheld by the economic self-interest of the miners – pure, unadulterated capitalism.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin vs. Internet Bubble</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4739,\"width\":352,\"height\":416,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs. the Internet Bubble chart via Yahoo! Finance\" class=\"wp-image-4739\" width=\"352\" height=\"416\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although Bitcoin has been in existence since 2009, its ascension to mainstream relevance is far more recent. Originally beloved by a very small group of passionate believers, Bitcoin saw relatively steady price appreciation in its early years while remaining virtually unknown to the general public. Over time, public enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin has crescendoed, with the price of the digital currency rising exponentially, attracting hordes of amateur “investors” and speculators. As a result, the price of one Bitcoin has exploded by an absurd +3960% since the beginning of 2016! The ride has been volatile, including five drawdowns of at least -25% (daily close) during that period. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise dwarfs even the gains seen in the Internet Index at the peak of the notorious Tech Bubble. ➞</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Love at First Bit?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Why has the world seemingly become enamored with the concept of cryptocurrencies? The following are some of the advantages being widely touted by Bitcoin advocates:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Freedom </strong>– It is possible to send and receive Bitcoin payments anywhere in the world at any time, without scrutiny. Users don’t have to worry about third party delays or approvals, banking holidays, transfer limits, or any other laws due to lack of central authority.</li><li><strong>Anonymity </strong>– Anyone, of any age, from anywhere in the world, with access to the Internet can transact with Bitcoins without providing any paperwork or proof of identification. Since personal information is not being tied to transactions, the risk of identity theft is eliminated.</li><li><strong>Low Fees </strong>– Transaction fees for processing Bitcoin payments are relatively low. Additionally, digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) can help merchants process transactions by converting Bitcoins into fiat currency for a fee that is generally lower than most credit card processing fees.</li><li><strong>Less Risk for Merchants </strong>– Because Bitcoin transactions cannot be reversed and do not carry any personal information with them, merchants are protected from potential losses that could occur from credit card fraud.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Despite the increasing hype and number of new Bitcoin advocates, doubters and skeptics abound – and you can count us among them. An asset’s value does not go parabolic (as seen on the previous page) without carrying extreme risk. In addition, there are numerous pitfalls and uncertainties associated with cryptocurrencies:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Price Volatility </strong>– It is impossible for Bitcoin to be a good store of value and a legitimate tool for transacting business when prices change so rapidly. Imagine trying to buy a car with Bitcoin when its value is gyrating by hundreds, or even thousands of dollars over a short period of time.</li><li><strong>Intangible </strong>– Many skeptics take issue with the fact that a Bitcoin is represented by a unique string of numbers stored on a hard drive – there is no physical coin.</li><li><strong>Moral Dilemma</strong> – The anonymity provided by Bitcoin is a double-edged sword, as it makes the digital currency inherently ideal for black market dealings.</li><li><strong>Regulation </strong>– The IRS has begun taxing digital currency gains and payments. Furthermore, there is the potential that certain countries could attempt to ban cryptocurrencies altogether, particularly if terrorist activities are funded by Bitcoin.</li><li><strong>Cybersecurity and Fraud </strong>– Digital currency assets can be stolen by hackers. Additionally, as the demand for cryptocurrencies has grown, scammers and poseurs have created their own bogus digital assets.</li><li><strong>Scalability</strong> – Major digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) have had difficulty handling traffic, which causes scalability and liquidity issues.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Our Perspective</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4742,\"width\":462,\"height\":260,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-3-kings-cartoon.jpg\" alt=\"Cartoon depicting three wise men, one offering bitcoin...\" class=\"wp-image-4742\" width=\"462\" height=\"260\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Throughout history, there have been numerous examples of revolutionary ideas or innovations that turned into dangerous bubbles due to feverish speculation and Wall Street hype ─ regardless of the good intentions of the underlying concept. In our opinion, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are among them. Any dispute regarding the practical applications of Bitcoin matters not to the crazed speculators driving today’s rampant price gains.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many will argue that cryptocurrencies are isolated from other aspects of the economy and financial markets. However, we are concerned that the potential impact of a violent collapse in cryptocurrency prices could be bigger and more far-reaching than anticipated. And we are not alone:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Bitcoin’s Bubble Matters</strong>  <span style=\"font-size: inherit;\">If there’s a price crash in the cryptocurrency, it could hit the tech sector–and more</span></p><cite>Wall Street Journal - 10/8/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><span style=\"font-size: inherit;\"><strong>Deutsche Bank Economist Says a Bitcoin Crash Would Endanger Global Markets</strong></span> </p><cite>Fortune - 12/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Whether speculation is in tulip bulbs, real estate, stocks, sub-prime mortgages, or cryptocurrencies, the pattern is usually the same. For investors, emotions run the gamut from greed, to defiance, to fear at any hint of a disruption in the system. Unless you have a voracious appetite for risk and a high tolerance for loss, today’s cryptocurrency bubble is best left to the speculators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our December 15, 2017 issue.  Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Bitcoin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bitcoin - Tiptoe, through the Tulips...','\"Tulip Mania,\" a speculative craze for tulips, may seem bizarre and distant in the 21st Century. However, we see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.','inherit','closed','closed','','2418-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:46:23','2021-06-09 20:46:23','',2418,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8262',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8263,3,'2021-06-09 20:47:50','2021-06-09 20:47:50','<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":8} -->\n<div style=\"height:8px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Holland, 1636</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\",\"width\":\"60%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\" style=\"flex-basis:60%\"><!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One would suppose that there must have been some great virtue in this flower to have made it so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the perfume of the rose – hardly the beauty of the ‘sweet, sweet-pea;’ neither is it as enduring as either…\"</p><p>\"At last, however, the more prudent began to see that this folly could not last for ever… It was seen that somebody must lose fearfully in the end. As this conviction spread, prices fell, and never rose again. Confidence was destroyed, and a universal panic seized upon the dealers.\"</p><cite>– Tulipomania, Holland, 1636, excerpted from Extraordinary Popular Delusions &amp; the Madness of Crowds, written by Charles Mackay 1841</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4887,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Jan_Brueghel_the_Younger_Satire_Tulip_Mania_1640-1024x655.jpg\" alt=\"Painting, A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel, c. 1640\" class=\"wp-image-4887\"/><figcaption>A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel the Younger (ca. 1640) depicts speculators as brainless monkeys in contemporary upper-class dress.</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Fast forward to 2017: Cryptocurrency Markets</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The quotes above referring to the Tulipomania of the 1600s may seem bizarre and distant to many. However, we see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Wealth Managers Are Being Inundated With Calls About Bitcoin</p><cite>Bloomberg, 11/21/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Someone in 2010 bought 2 pizzas with 10,000 bitcoins – which today would be worth $100 million</p><cite>Business Insider, 11/28/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Owning bitcoin is so much damn fun</p><cite>Yahoo! Finance, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin swings from bull to bear and back in a day </p><cite>Financial Times, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin’s Wildest Ride: Up 40% in 40 Hours </p><cite>Wall Street Journal, 12/7/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin Futures Debut With 26% Rally, Trigger CBOE Trading Halts</p><cite>Bloomberg, 12/11/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin and the Lure of Decentralization</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bitcoin is the most widely-recognized and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Specifically, a cryptocurrency is a digital currency which has no central issuing or regulating authority, but instead uses a decentralized system of computers to record transactions and manage the issuance of new units. The digital asset relies on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions. While over 1,000 unique cryptocurrencies exist today, they all share a common purpose: to enable and serve decentralized applications – a way to create a self-supporting service that no single entity operates or regulates.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Way of the future? It’s complicated…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Cryptocurrencies may sound like the way of the future, but they are incredibly complex and difficult to understand. To illustrate, let’s take a high-level look at a theoretical transaction paid for in Bitcoin, as depicted by the flow chart at the top of page 2. Once the transaction is proposed, independent entities (called “miners”) compete on the open network to time stamp and verify the transaction by performing computationally difficult calculations. The reward for winning the elaborate race to verify and add the transaction to the public digital ledger (the blockchain) is a fraction of the transaction’s value, plus a processing fee, both denominated in Bitcoin. The integrity of the ledger is upheld by the economic self-interest of the miners – pure, unadulterated capitalism.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin vs. Internet Bubble</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4739,\"width\":352,\"height\":416,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs. the Internet Bubble chart via Yahoo! Finance\" class=\"wp-image-4739\" width=\"352\" height=\"416\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although Bitcoin has been in existence since 2009, its ascension to mainstream relevance is far more recent. Originally beloved by a very small group of passionate believers, Bitcoin saw relatively steady price appreciation in its early years while remaining virtually unknown to the general public. Over time, public enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin has crescendoed, with the price of the digital currency rising exponentially, attracting hordes of amateur “investors” and speculators. As a result, the price of one Bitcoin has exploded by an absurd +3960% since the beginning of 2016! The ride has been volatile, including five drawdowns of at least -25% (daily close) during that period. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise dwarfs even the gains seen in the Internet Index at the peak of the notorious Tech Bubble. ➞</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Love at First Bit?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Why has the world seemingly become enamored with the concept of cryptocurrencies? The following are some of the advantages being widely touted by Bitcoin advocates:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Freedom </strong>– It is possible to send and receive Bitcoin payments anywhere in the world at any time, without scrutiny. Users don’t have to worry about third party delays or approvals, banking holidays, transfer limits, or any other laws due to lack of central authority.</li><li><strong>Anonymity </strong>– Anyone, of any age, from anywhere in the world, with access to the Internet can transact with Bitcoins without providing any paperwork or proof of identification. Since personal information is not being tied to transactions, the risk of identity theft is eliminated.</li><li><strong>Low Fees </strong>– Transaction fees for processing Bitcoin payments are relatively low. Additionally, digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) can help merchants process transactions by converting Bitcoins into fiat currency for a fee that is generally lower than most credit card processing fees.</li><li><strong>Less Risk for Merchants </strong>– Because Bitcoin transactions cannot be reversed and do not carry any personal information with them, merchants are protected from potential losses that could occur from credit card fraud.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Despite the increasing hype and number of new Bitcoin advocates, doubters and skeptics abound – and you can count us among them. An asset’s value does not go parabolic (as seen on the previous page) without carrying extreme risk. In addition, there are numerous pitfalls and uncertainties associated with cryptocurrencies:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Price Volatility </strong>– It is impossible for Bitcoin to be a good store of value and a legitimate tool for transacting business when prices change so rapidly. Imagine trying to buy a car with Bitcoin when its value is gyrating by hundreds, or even thousands of dollars over a short period of time.</li><li><strong>Intangible </strong>– Many skeptics take issue with the fact that a Bitcoin is represented by a unique string of numbers stored on a hard drive – there is no physical coin.</li><li><strong>Moral Dilemma</strong> – The anonymity provided by Bitcoin is a double-edged sword, as it makes the digital currency inherently ideal for black market dealings.</li><li><strong>Regulation </strong>– The IRS has begun taxing digital currency gains and payments. Furthermore, there is the potential that certain countries could attempt to ban cryptocurrencies altogether, particularly if terrorist activities are funded by Bitcoin.</li><li><strong>Cybersecurity and Fraud </strong>– Digital currency assets can be stolen by hackers. Additionally, as the demand for cryptocurrencies has grown, scammers and poseurs have created their own bogus digital assets.</li><li><strong>Scalability</strong> – Major digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) have had difficulty handling traffic, which causes scalability and liquidity issues.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Our Perspective</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4742,\"width\":462,\"height\":260,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-3-kings-cartoon.jpg\" alt=\"Cartoon depicting three wise men, one offering bitcoin...\" class=\"wp-image-4742\" width=\"462\" height=\"260\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Throughout history, there have been numerous examples of revolutionary ideas or innovations that turned into dangerous bubbles due to feverish speculation and Wall Street hype ─ regardless of the good intentions of the underlying concept. In our opinion, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are among them. Any dispute regarding the practical applications of Bitcoin matters not to the crazed speculators driving today’s rampant price gains.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many will argue that cryptocurrencies are isolated from other aspects of the economy and financial markets. However, we are concerned that the potential impact of a violent collapse in cryptocurrency prices could be bigger and more far-reaching than anticipated. And we are not alone:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Bitcoin’s Bubble Matters</strong>  <span style=\"font-size: inherit;\">If there’s a price crash in the cryptocurrency, it could hit the tech sector–and more</span></p><cite>Wall Street Journal - 10/8/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><span style=\"font-size: inherit;\"><strong>Deutsche Bank Economist Says a Bitcoin Crash Would Endanger Global Markets</strong></span> </p><cite>Fortune - 12/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Whether speculation is in tulip bulbs, real estate, stocks, sub-prime mortgages, or cryptocurrencies, the pattern is usually the same. For investors, emotions run the gamut from greed, to defiance, to fear at any hint of a disruption in the system. Unless you have a voracious appetite for risk and a high tolerance for loss, today’s cryptocurrency bubble is best left to the speculators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our December 15, 2017 issue.  Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Bitcoin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bitcoin - Tiptoe, through the Tulips...','We see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.','inherit','closed','closed','','2418-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:47:50','2021-06-09 20:47:50','',2418,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8263',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8266,3,'2021-06-09 20:53:52','2021-06-09 20:53:52','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":471,\"height\":231,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"471\" height=\"231\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:53:52','2021-06-09 20:53:52','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8266',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8267,3,'2021-06-09 20:54:55','2021-06-09 20:54:55','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":471,\"height\":231,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"471\" height=\"231\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:54:55','2021-06-09 20:54:55','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8267',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8268,3,'2021-06-09 20:55:22','2021-06-09 20:55:22','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":471,\"height\":231,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"471\" height=\"231\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 20:55:22','2021-06-09 20:55:22','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8268',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8271,3,'2021-06-09 21:14:13','2021-06-09 21:14:13','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:14:13','2021-06-09 21:14:13','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8271',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8272,3,'2021-06-09 21:14:29','2021-06-09 21:14:29','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:14:29','2021-06-09 21:14:29','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8272',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8273,3,'2021-06-09 21:14:44','2021-06-09 21:14:44','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:14:44','2021-06-09 21:14:44','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8273',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8274,3,'2021-06-09 21:15:04','2021-06-09 21:15:04','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:15:04','2021-06-09 21:15:04','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8274',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8275,3,'2021-06-09 21:20:22','2021-06-09 21:20:22','','pexels-MLPs-1112048','','inherit','closed','closed','','pexels-mlps-1112048','','','2021-06-09 21:21:22','2021-06-09 21:21:22','',2474,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/pexels-MLPs-1112048.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8276,3,'2021-06-09 21:21:22','2021-06-09 21:21:22','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The ABCs of MLPs…<br>What you don’t know can hurt you.</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In this era of ultra-low interest rates, investors are inevitably drawn to investments with attractive yields, and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are among the most popular income-generating investments on the market today. These appear to be safe and secure places to invest as MLPs derive their income from revenue generating properties and infrastructure, but there’s more to the story.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>What are Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs)?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the name states, MLPs are limited partnerships which trade on major exchanges like common stock. They consist of a general partner (a sponsoring company in the same industry, which retains control of the business) and limited partners. When investors buy shares or units of the MLP, they become a limited partner in the business.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As partnerships, MLPs are eligible for special tax treatment and avoid “double taxation.” With common stock, dividends are essentially taxed twice – once at the corporate level before dividends are paid and again at the shareholder level, after the dividend is received. Partnerships –including MLPs– are treated as “pass-through” entities where the income and deductions are passed directly to the partners (investors) who pay the taxes. Thus, MLPs are taxed only once at the investor level.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5300,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/AlerianYield-300x166.png\" alt=\"Alerian MLP Index yield\" class=\"wp-image-5300\"/><figcaption>Yield on Alerian MLP Index</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to this favorable tax treatment, the level of distribution or yield for MLPs is generally high and can be very attractive to potential investors. One of the primary benchmarks used to track these publicly traded partnerships is the Alerian MLP Index, which includes 50 of the most prominent MLPs. The yield for this Index over the past 20 years is shown in the graph below. Note that the yield has generally been in the 6-8% range, and has occasionally jumped to over 10%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With yields like this, it’s no surprise that many investors consider MLPs to be a great source of potential income. But they aren’t as safe as commonly perceived, and there are important facts to consider before making an investment decision…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Fact #1: Sector diversification options are limited.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the majority of MLPs are in the energy sector and most are engaged in energy-related transportation, processing, and storage. This makes sector diversification problematic. Current tax regulations require that a publicly traded partnership must receive 90% of its income from specified sources, most of which pertain to natural resources. Thus, there are only a few MLP options outside of energy, and those are mostly in real estate and finance.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Fact #2: Yields can be high, but distributions are not guaranteed.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Most MLPs manage to maintain distributions even in a weak economy. However, they need to have profits to make payouts. In recent downturns, it’s become apparent that distributions can decline or even disappear altogether. Several 2007 members of the Alerian MLP Index were forced to cut distributions significantly in the last recession (and it’s interesting to note that they have since been dropped from the Index).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Atlas Pipeline Partners LP (symbol: APL) is a prime example of the risk in MLP investing. Over the course of the last recession, the price of APL shares dropped more than 90% and distributions ceased. No distributions were made from May 2009 to November 2010.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Fact #3: MLPs mean more work at tax time.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>When you invest in an MLP, you become a limited partner, so the tax picture is more complicated than when you simply own common stock. With stocks, investors pay taxes on dividends received. With MLPs, much of the tax on distribution income is deferred until you sell your shares. Briefly, this is how taxes work with an MLP…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>At year-end you receive a “K1” report from the partnership showing your portion of partnership income minus deductions for depreciation, depletion, etc. Due to these offsetting deductions, the net taxable income for the year is usually much less than the distributions paid out. The difference between the distribution and taxable income is treated as “return of capital” and reduces your cost basis. When you sell the shares, you will be required to pay income taxes on the “return of capital” portion, along with any capital gains above your initial investment. Bottom line, MLP investing requires extra work and forms at tax time, and it can lead to delays in filing as you wait for K1s to be issued.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Fact #4: MLPs are generally not suitable investments for IRAs or pension plans.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are no restrictions on buying MLPs in qualified retirement plans, but they may not be a good investment option. One benefit of owning an MLP is that most taxes are deferred until sale, and that benefit is wasted in a tax deferred IRA. Also, although your retirement plan is tax exempt, it could end up owing taxes on MLP income. The reason is that any tax-exempt entity (like an IRA) that earns income from an outside business is subject to the “Unrelated Business Income Tax” (UBIT) after the first $1,000 of net income. As a partner in an MLP, your retirement plan could be considered to earn this sort of income.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Fact #5: MLPs carry unknown risks.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s important to remember that these investments are not like bonds or preferred stocks which have a set par value. The price of MLP shares fluctuates like common stock. MLPs tend to be especially vulnerable to rising interest rates as they face increased competition from other income investments such as bonds or CDs. Higher interest rates also increase the cost of capital used for maintenance or expansion of MLP assets. In addition, economic swings can have a negative impact since most MLPs derive income from oil and gas properties, and utilization of these assets typically declines in a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5301,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/AlerianMLP-300x202.png\" alt=\"Alerian price index took three years to surpass its peak in the bear market\" class=\"wp-image-5301\"/><figcaption>Alerian MLP Price Index</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This variability in MLP performance is evident in the Alerian MLP Price Index shown at right. Although this Index has generally moved higher over the past 20 years, it hit a major peak in 2007 and again in 2014. Over the course of the last bear market, this MLP Index dropped more than 55% and it took over three years to surpass the 2007 peak.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The trajectory in this Index is also particularly worrisome. As investors have flocked to these popular investments, this Index has soared and valuations have climbed. Even with the sell-off in energy stocks, the average P/E ratio of the Alerian Index constituents is now 30x compared to an average P/E of 20.7x for the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><strong>Also, although MLPs currently enjoy tax favored status, be aware that tax rules can change at the stroke of a legislative pen.</strong> </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This has happened before. In the early 1980s, the first MLPs were a far more diverse group than they are today. Under the tax laws at the time, firms in a variety of energy and consumer industries were able to take advantage of this tax favored status including restaurants, hotels and cable TV. Even the Boston Celtics traded as an MLP at one time. In 1987 the tax code tightened, and under the new rules many of these partnerships no longer qualified for the tax advantages.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also, in a more recent example, Canada’s 2006 Tax Fairness Plan implemented a new tax eventually amounting to more than 30% on most Canadian Income Trusts, which are similar tax-advantaged entities. The intention, of course, was to capture more tax revenue and make this form of business less attractive to existing corporations. Keep in mind that the U.S. government is seeking ways to generate more tax revenue right now and MLPs are currently exempt from paying corporate taxes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Though MLPs offer an attractive yield, they do carry risks and can lose value. It’s important to recognize these are not simply safe, dividend paying alternatives to stocks or bonds. The risks in these MLPs are particularly acute today with continued demand for high-yield instruments, volatility in oil prices, and the likelihood of rising interest rates in the future.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>At this point in time, we do not view MLPs as a “safety-first” alternative, and advise following these guidelines if investing in MLPs today:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Limit allocation to no more than 10% of the portfolio.</li><li>Diversify among MLPs so you are not invested in just a single partnership.</li><li>Generally avoid buying MLPs in IRAs or other tax-exempt accounts.</li><li>Do your research, just as you would in selecting stocks. Study the partnership before investing and look for strong financial position (including stability of the general partner) and any hidden liabilities, as well as growth potential.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":36} -->\n<div style=\"height:36px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":36} -->\n<div style=\"height:36px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research Special Report also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MLPs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Investing in MLPs: The Rest of the Story','In this era of ultra-low interest rates, investors are inevitably drawn to investments with attractive yields, and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are among the most popular income-generating investments on the market today. Learn the ABCs of MLPs… what you don’t know can hurt you. ','inherit','closed','closed','','2474-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:21:22','2021-06-09 21:21:22','',2474,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8276',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8278,3,'2021-06-09 21:28:09','2021-06-09 21:28:09','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:28:09','2021-06-09 21:28:09','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8278',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8279,3,'2021-06-09 21:28:11','2021-06-09 21:28:11','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:28:11','2021-06-09 21:28:11','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8279',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8280,3,'2021-06-09 21:29:57','2021-06-09 21:29:57','','bear_shutterstock_122551600','','inherit','closed','closed','','bear_shutterstock_122551600','','','2021-06-09 21:34:57','2021-06-09 21:34:57','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/bear_shutterstock_122551600.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8281,3,'2021-06-09 21:34:57','2021-06-09 21:34:57','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:34:57','2021-06-09 21:34:57','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8281',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8282,3,'2021-06-09 21:35:13','2021-06-09 21:35:13','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:35:13','2021-06-09 21:35:13','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8282',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8284,3,'2021-06-09 21:45:28','2021-06-09 21:45:28','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines or a wall of worry\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite selling vacuum reaching +50 while the distribution component hit -100.\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":375,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline breaking to a new high\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"375\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index just starting to turn upward\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA just turning from being oversold.  \" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index overlaid on the internet index.  They appear to be mirror images.\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation showing median family homes dropping almost as low as the consumer price index\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey, reading of 14\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Hits Highest Levels Since Crisis Began</p><cite>Reuters - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>As stocks rebound, corporate insiders ramp up selling</p><cite>Los Angeles - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007</p><cite>Bloomberg - 4/24/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"James B Stack signature\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published May 8, 2009.  Also, available to read in its original PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','Archived Issue from May 8, 2009 - Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%. In this issue, we provide the historical answers to these questions... more.','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:45:28','2021-06-09 21:45:28','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8284',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8285,3,'2021-06-09 21:49:57','2021-06-09 21:49:57','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines or a wall of worry\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite selling vacuum reaching +50 while the distribution component hit -100.\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":375,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline breaking to a new high\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"375\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index just starting to turn upward\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA just turning from being oversold.  \" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index overlaid on the internet index.  They appear to be mirror images.\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation showing median family homes dropping almost as low as the consumer price index\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey, reading of 14\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Hits Highest Levels Since Crisis Began</p><cite>Reuters - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>As stocks rebound, corporate insiders ramp up selling</p><cite>Los Angeles - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007</p><cite>Bloomberg - 4/24/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":6180,\"width\":381,\"height\":44,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/JBS.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6180\" width=\"381\" height=\"44\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published May 8, 2009.  Also, available to read in its original PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','Archived Issue from May 8, 2009 - Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%. In this issue, we provide the historical answers to these questions... more.','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:49:57','2021-06-09 21:49:57','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8285',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8286,3,'2021-06-09 21:50:17','2021-06-09 21:50:17','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines or a wall of worry\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite selling vacuum reaching +50 while the distribution component hit -100.\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":375,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline breaking to a new high\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"375\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index just starting to turn upward\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA just turning from being oversold.  \" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index overlaid on the internet index.  They appear to be mirror images.\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation showing median family homes dropping almost as low as the consumer price index\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey, reading of 14\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Hits Highest Levels Since Crisis Began</p><cite>Reuters - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>As stocks rebound, corporate insiders ramp up selling</p><cite>Los Angeles - 4/27/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007</p><cite>Bloomberg - 4/24/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":6180,\"width\":381,\"height\":44,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/JBS.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6180\" width=\"381\" height=\"44\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":39} -->\n<div style=\"height:39px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published May 8, 2009.  Also, available to read in its original PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','Archived Issue from May 8, 2009 - Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%. In this issue, we provide the historical answers to these questions... more.','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:50:17','2021-06-09 21:50:17','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8286',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8287,3,'2021-06-09 21:56:11','2021-06-09 21:56:11','','pexels-bubble-1329285','','inherit','closed','closed','','pexels-bubble-1329285','','','2021-06-09 21:56:48','2021-06-09 21:56:48','',2497,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/pexels-bubble-1329285.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8288,3,'2021-06-09 21:56:48','2021-06-09 21:56:48','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Is Wall Street in a \'New Paradigm Era\'... or merely an \'Old Bubble\' carried to New Extremes?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Santayana, an early 20th Century philosopher, once said, “Those who do not learn from the past, are doomed to repeat it.” And Sir Isaac Newton, who lost the equivalent of over $1,000,000 investing in the South Sea bubble of 1720,  remarked, “I can measure the motions of bodies, but I cannot measure human folly.” However to this day, analysts cannot agree as to what constitutes a bubble… or how to recognize a bubble before the inevitable washout and aftermath.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is widely perceived that the U.S. economy and stock market have embarked on a “New Paradigm Era” in which old rules no longer apply and traditional barriers have been broken. Yet as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Congress on February 26th 1997, “Regrettably, history is strewn with visions of such ‘new eras’ that, in the end, have proven to be a mirage.” This is an insight into one such likely mirage…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>What Constitutes A Bubble?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left\"><p>That the free enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed… This process, once it is recognized, is clearly evident, and especially so after the fact. So also, if more subjectively, are the basic attitudes of the participants. These take two forms. There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to stay up and go up, perhaps indefinitely… Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally fewer in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course… For built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both of the groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Something, it matters little –although it will always be debated– triggers the ultimate reversal.<br></p><cite><strong>A Short History of Financial Euphoria<br></strong>John Kenneth Galbraith</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historically, bubbles have always been a part of the lessons of investing. There was the Japanese stock market and real estate bubble which popped in 1989. In domestic real estate, there was the not so “recession-proof” California, as well as the price deflation or washouts of condominiums in Hawaii… residences in the Northeast… commercial office space in the oil belt… and numerous other regions in the 1980’s. Many investors may also remember $850 gold… $50 silver… $37 oil… numismatics… baseball cards… and the list goes on.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In the stock market, bubbles are usually limited to individual sectors which ride high on excessively exuberant expectations – only to plunge back to earth later. Yet history has left several notable eras which were recognized as “bubbles” only in the eventual and inevitable devastation. Seasoned investors may remember the “Nifty Fifty” era… the “Go-Go Fund” era… or even the “Investment Trust” era of the 1920’s.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A Short History of Financial Euphoria</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In essence, a bubble is created when objectivity, reasoning, and valuation give way to greed and the desire for profits. In “A Short History of Financial Euphoria,” author Galbraith describes the common seeds of past manias that inevitably give way to disastrous consequences:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"ordered\":true} -->\n<ol><li>The basic premise that investing involves a trade-off between risk/reward is lost as investors are “captured by the wondrous satisfaction from accruing wealth. The very increase in values thus captures the thoughts and minds of those being rewarded.”</li><li>The belief that “some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control” – that there is “something new in the world” that justifies a permanently higher level of valuation.</li><li>The illusion that, except for temporary setbacks, “values are going up permanently and indefinitely.”</li><li>The “condemnation at those who express doubt or dissent. … because of defective imagination or other mental inadequacy they are unable to grasp the new and rewarding circumstances.”</li></ol>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Healthy Bull Market to Dangerous Bubble</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yet only in the aftermath, is a “bubble” identified as a bubble. While in progress, it can only be recognized by its symptoms which are common with speculative eras of the past. At what point does a healthy bull market turn into a bubble ripe for the popping? Here are a few differences:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5946,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/marketbubble-1024x308.jpg\" alt=\"Table detailing the characteristics of a healthy bull market and the characteristics when it swings to a dangerous bubble.\" class=\"wp-image-5946\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Time For A Reality Check...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5953,\"width\":356,\"height\":351,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/overvaluation-extremes-300x296.jpg\" alt=\"Overvalutaion dot chart showing the extremes present at historic market tops.\" class=\"wp-image-5953\" width=\"356\" height=\"351\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Wall Street consensus is that the U.S. has entered a “new era” of tame inflation, low interest rates, and rising productivity that will carry economic prosperity well into the new millennium. If so, say pundits, then today’s extreme valuation levels in the stock market are justified. Just how extreme is stock overvaluation? The figure below shows the S&amp;P 500 Price-to-Dividend Ratio on the vertical scale, and the S&amp;P Industrials Price-to-Book Value Ratio on the horizontal scale. Simply, the higher on the chart, or the farther to the right a year appears, the more overvalued it is. Clearly, when compared to overvaluation at some of the most historic market tops such as 1929, 1968, 1972, and 1987… today (1998) is off-the-chart!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Consensus on Wall Street is also that today’s investor is smarter, better informed, more patient, and longer-term oriented than in the past. Consequently, it is believed that today’s mutual fund holder will never panic in a bear market. However, not all agree with this consensus:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":37} -->\n<div style=\"height:37px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p><strong>Investors may overreact to a downturn, SEC warns</strong><br>Inexperienced investors who have known only the bull market of the last decade could react ‘precipitously’ to a downturn and ‘at great cost to themselves and our markets’, Mr. Arthur Levitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission<br>warned yesterday.</p><cite>London Financial Times – Feb 26, 1997</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>And Federal Reserve officials also appear nervous as evidenced by this Congressional Testimony in early 1997:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default\"><p>History demonstrates that participants in financial markets are susceptible to waves of optimism… Excessive optimism sows the seeds of its own reversal in the form of imbalances that tend to grow over time. When unwarranted expectations ultimately are not realized, the unwinding of these financial excesses can act to amplify a downturn</p><cite>Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan<br>– Feb 26, 1997</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Meanwhile, the cold fact remains that the assets in equity mutual funds now total $3,164 Billion, as compared to $226 Billion in October 1990 at the start of this bull market. Quite simply, 93% of the money in stock mutual funds has not experienced a bear market or even a -15% correction in blue chip averages!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Perhaps more ominously, an overwhelming majority of fund investors believe they never will experience such a decline. This late 1996 Lou Harris poll reveals that 85% expect the next 10 years to be as spectacular or better than the past decade. 78% are not expecting a mild bear market of -20%. And almost half think that minor -10% corrections are a thing of the past:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5954,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/surveyfundinvestors-1024x224.jpg\" alt=\"survey of fund investors expectations and the actual risk since 1900.\" class=\"wp-image-5954\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Just how far out of touch are these investor expectations with reality?</strong> Compare the “actual risk” for all the years of this century (above right). A -10% correction has occurred in 65 years, or once every 1.5yrs on average – yet 7 years have lapsed since the last. A -20% decline has triggered every 2.5yrs – again, over 7 years since the last. A -30% bear hits every 4.6yrs – last seen during the ’87 Crash. And a major bear, with -40% losses, strikes about every 8.7yrs… last felt by investors 23 years ago!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Is it a contest to see who can forecast the highest level for the stock market? No… more likely it’s just a not-so-mild case of “irrational exuberance” feared by the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5959,\"width\":414,\"height\":305,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/dow10000-300x221.jpg\" alt=\"Newspaper clipping of When and How the Dow may hit 20,000 by 2007.\" class=\"wp-image-5959\" width=\"414\" height=\"305\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":20} -->\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":7533,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/assets.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7533\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":163} -->\n<div style=\"height:163px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Public investment funds placed with the nation’s largest discount brokerage firm have risen over 19-fold in less than a decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since 1981, the number of mutual funds have multiplied at a rate far above any historical experience… far above the “Go-Go Fund” era of the 1960’s… and far above the “Investment Trust” era of the 1920’s.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":222} -->\n<div style=\"height:222px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5963,\"width\":273,\"height\":349,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/mutualfunds.jpg\" alt=\"Bar chart of mutual funds increasing year over year.\" class=\"wp-image-5963\" width=\"273\" height=\"349\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5967,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/investmentsclubs-294x300.jpg\" alt=\"Bar chart of investment clubs surpassing the Go-Go Fund era.  \" class=\"wp-image-5967\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The number of investment clubs has increased over 5-fold in the current bull market. Today, more than 1 in 3 adults own mutual funds – a 66% increase in four years. That easily surpasses the “Go-Go Fund” era in which 1 in 4 adults owned stocks when the washout began in 1969.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Market historians note that stock market bubbles have been accompanied by a “bubble” in the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. In March 1998, a seat sold for a cool $2.0 million – far above the peak prior to the 1987 Crash. Also note the 1929 and 1966-69 peaks… which will become relevant in the next section of this report.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5972,\"width\":269,\"height\":371,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/nyse-seat.jpg\" alt=\"Bar chart of cost of seat on NYSE soaring in 1998.\" class=\"wp-image-5972\" width=\"269\" height=\"371\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":5973,\"width\":382,\"height\":378,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/nasdaq-pe-ratio-300x297.jpg\" alt=\"NASDAQ P/E Ratio up to 81.2 in 1998.\" class=\"wp-image-5973\" width=\"382\" height=\"378\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Safety in diversification? Certainly not in small-caps. The cumulative P/E ratio of all domestic NASDAQ stocks has been hitting unprecedented, frothy levels. It would require a decline of over -75% to take the NASDAQ P/E ratio back to where it started this bull market in October 1990.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5978,\"width\":387,\"height\":334,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/mergers-300x258.jpg\" alt=\"Mergers &amp; Acquisitions line chart also increasing in late 90s.\" class=\"wp-image-5978\" width=\"387\" height=\"334\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Mergers and acquisitions? Since 1996, there’s been no “deal” too big, too expensive, or too leveraged for Wall Street to piece together.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":5979,\"width\":392,\"height\":316,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/margin-debt66-300x242.jpg\" alt=\"Margin debt graph soaring to record levels in the late 90s.\" class=\"wp-image-5979\" width=\"392\" height=\"316\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Margin debt (money borrowed to purchase stocks) has soared to record levels – even relative to the size of the economy. Note how far it is above the dangerous peaks in 1987, 1972, and 1968… just prior to the three biggest bear markets of the past half century. And of course, this doesn’t include the second mortgages, refinancings, or record credit card debt that has been used to divert funds into the stock market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4><strong><em>Reality Check: Bull or Bubble?</em></strong></h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":51} -->\n<div style=\"height:51px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The Inevitable Questions:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>What has driven stocks to such overvalued extremes?</strong></li><li><strong>Why do the SEC and our Federal Reserve seem so worried?</strong></li><li><strong>Why are investor expectations so out-of-touch with reality?</strong></li><li><strong>What has created so many symptoms of a dangerous “bubble”?</strong></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TODAY: The Not So “New Paradigm Bubble”</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many reasons, excuses, and theories have been postulated for Wall Street’s exuberance today. They range from advances in technology, to increases in productivity, to changing demographics (aging baby-boomers). Yet these all miss the mark in explaining how Wall Street arrived at DJIA 9000 from DJIA 800 in 1982. In 1981 when President Reagan took office, interest rates were above 13%, gold had recently hit $850/oz, the DJIA was at the same level as in 1966, and real estate was considered by all to be the safest, best long-term investment. What happened? What changed public opinion so dramatically?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>The answer is “disinflation”. </strong>As inflation receded over the past 16 years, so did the fear or expectations of inflation. Gold lost its luster. Real estate washouts in the oil belt, California, and the Northeast removed its “safe haven” perception. And as interest rates slipped year after year, thrifty CD and money market fund savers were pushed to seek other alternatives… the stock market. A “Disinflation Era” is not new… and neither is the dangerous bubble which it can create. Let’s examine historical precedent:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5988,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/90s-inflation-rate-300x298.jpg\" alt=\"5 year inflation rate graph over the djia increasing.\" class=\"wp-image-5988\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>THE INVESTMENT TRUST ’20s</strong><br><strong>Start:</strong> August 1921 – as the high inflation of World War I receded.<br><strong>Stocks:</strong> DJIA up 6-fold in 8 years.<br><strong>THE GO-GO FUND ’60s</strong><br><strong>Start:</strong> June 1949 – as the high inflation of World War II (and the Korean War) receded.<br><strong>Stocks:</strong> DJIA up 6-fold in 17 years (with subsequent tops in 1968 and 1973).<br><strong>THE MUTUAL FUND MANIA ’90s</strong><br><strong>Start:</strong> August 1982 – as the high inflation of the Vietnam War and the 1970s receded.<br><strong>Stocks:</strong> DJIA up 11-fold in 16 years.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Here are the ominous parallels and sequence of events in these “Disinflation Eras”:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5989,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1-correctionless-market-1024x167.jpg\" alt=\"Correctionless market contains an image with headlines from 1929, 1966, and today.\" class=\"wp-image-5989\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5990,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2-mutual-fund-mania-1024x577.jpg\" alt=\"Mutual Fund Mania with headlines from 1929, 1966, and today.\" class=\"wp-image-5990\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5991,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/3-extreme-overvaluation-1024x235.jpg\" alt=\"Extreme overvaluation with headlines.\" class=\"wp-image-5991\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5992,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/4-old-rules-1024x442.jpg\" alt=\"Old Rules no longer apply headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5992\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5993,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/5-unparalleled-stability-1024x266.jpg\" alt=\"Unparalleled stability headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5993\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5994,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/6-supply-demand-1024x314.jpg\" alt=\"Supply and demand imbalance headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5994\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5995,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/7-riskless-attitude-1024x258.jpg\" alt=\"Riskless attitude headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5995\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5996,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/8-perpetual-prosperity-1024x442.jpg\" alt=\"Perpetual economic prosperity headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5996\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5997,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/9-new-era-hype-1024x452.jpg\" alt=\"New era hype headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5997\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5998,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/10-11-1024x567.jpg\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Censure and scolding the federal reserve headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5998\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5999,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/washout-1024x269.jpg\" alt=\"Inevitable washout headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5999\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>What the Future Holds...</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>A stock market bubble can be prevented, but it can’t be corrected…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Painful recessions and periodic bear markets can usually prevent the valuation extremes and sentiment excesses that create a dangerous bubble. Yet tragically, this simple, historic fact must be relearned every time. For example, after the Japanese stock market and real estate collapse, the former head of the Bank of Japan lamented:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Looking back, we now feel that we should have applied the brakes on the excessive boom much earlier… However, back in those days, as [consumer] prices were not rising, it was difficult to obtain people’s understanding for a policy aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth by monetary tightening.</p><cite>Yasushi Mieno, Former Governor, Bank of Japan</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The historical truth that bubbles can be prevented but not corrected even appears obvious to those involved in creating the current bubble, as evidenced by this 1996 quote from the former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>It’s very hard to surgically prick a balloon. You may let out a lot more air than you bargained for.</p><cite>Alan Blinder, Former Vice Chairman, Federal Reserve</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>And in an article from 30 years ago, the current Federal Reserve Chairman wrote this critique of the 1929 Crash:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market – triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence.</p><cite>Alan Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom”, 1966</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yet the mere presence of a bubble, even with all the overvaluation and extremes, rarely pops itself. It may continue to inflate, transparent to those inside the bubble, until some external event causes the initial pinhole. As John Galbraith noted about past bubbles, “Something, it matters little –although it will always be debated–  triggers the ultimate reversal.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>From whence could the pin or trigger come?…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":6002,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/global-disc-rates-289x300.jpg\" alt=\"Global discount rates graph dropping\" class=\"wp-image-6002\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Global economic and financial turmoil offer a number of potential sources. Recessions in Germany and Japan have driven interest rates down to 1/3 of levels in 1991-92 (or 1/12 in the case of Japan). However, the frenzied effort to jumpstart foreign economies has instead pushed excess liquidity into the U.S. financial markets.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":6003,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/net-foreign-purchases-300x211.jpg\" alt=\"Net foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury Bonds and Notes\" class=\"wp-image-6003\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As a result, purchasing of U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors and central banks has soared to unprecedented levels. The short-term benefits have funded our trade deficit, supported the Dollar, and sloshed liquidity into Wall Street. The obvious danger is what might happen now that this trend shows signs of reversing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":6004,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/global-derivatives-207x300.jpg\" alt=\"Global derivatives market bar chart increasing\" class=\"wp-image-6004\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Another potential trigger resides in the global derivatives market. It’s assumed by today’s young gun-slinging money managers that such leveraged derivatives are as liquid as cash – even in a falling market or financial crisis. However, note that the face value of these global derivatives now totals over $41 trillion… 6 times larger than in the last U.S. recession… and 17 times larger than when liquidity disappeared during the 1987 Crash. That $41 trillion has never experienced a true global recession or liquidity crisis. What happens if speculators all want out at the same time?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":6005,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/household-credit-300x292.jpg\" alt=\"Household credit as a percentage of disposable personal income\" class=\"wp-image-6005\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Liquidity could also prove a problem for today’s consumers. Household debt (even as a percentage of income) continues to rise to record levels. Personal bankruptcies are also at record levels – even in this 8th year of economic expansion. With consumer spending accounting for 2/3’s of GDP growth, how long can households keep heading the wrong way down a oneway street?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":6006,\"width\":374,\"height\":182,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ici-liquid-300x146.jpg\" alt=\"ICI liquid asset ratio decreasing to 5.1%\" class=\"wp-image-6006\" width=\"374\" height=\"182\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If illiquidity is the trigger, mutual funds are sitting on the target. Cash reserves, tracked by ICI, have been reduced to the lowest levels of this 16-year disinflation bull. Meanwhile, nervous fund families, including Fidelity and Vanguard, have requested permission from the SEC to borrow from money market funds to meet redemptions if necessary. Some are even “investing” cash reserves in stock index futures. Is it confidence, ignorance, or recklessness that leads mutual funds down the same path as in the Go-Go Fund 1960’s, or as the Investment Trusts of the late 1920’s?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Threat of a Crash…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>l This 7.8 years without a -15% correction in the DJIA is virtually double the previous record. Among the 5 longest such periods… are the 1929 Crash and 1987 Crash. Coincidence?</li><li>l This 16th year without the DJIA dropping under the previous year’s low is double the previous record of 8 years… which ended in the 1929 Crash. Coincidence?</li><li>l Intraday volatility (daily high-to-low) is averaging over 2% (~180 DJIA points) for 1997-98. Among the 3 previous records… again, 1929 and 1987. Coincidence?</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Historical precedent paints a foreboding picture. A “crash” is always a possibility in a correctionless, overvalued stock market. And none have been as correctionless or as overvalued as this one. Wall Street confidence relies heavily on the Federal Reserve and its ability to control or halt a meltdown scenario. Media has publicized the “un”official Plunge Protection Team, comprised of the Federal Reserve, Treasury, SEC, and CFTC – all of whom are “thinking carefully about how they would respond to the unthinkable” on Wall Street. Only time will tell if such confidence is misplaced…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Plunge Protection Team<br></strong>White House Group Shapes Plans to Ensure<br>Any Market Free Fall Is Contained</p><cite>The Washington Post</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Weighing the Dangers…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today’s parallels with history, and repeated warnings from the SEC and the Federal Reserve carry ominous overtones. A correctionless bull market, record overvaluation, plus public exuberance all add up to unprecedented risk – for the stock market, as well as the U.S. economy. By July 1998, stock market capitalization (in relation to GDP) has reached over twice the peak before the last recession or prior to the 1987 stock market crash. Simply stated, even a mild bear market of -25% from today’s lofty levels, would wipe out $2.8 trillion – with more economic impact than any bear market of the past 60 years!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":6010,\"width\":358,\"height\":344,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/stock-market-capitalization-300x288.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6010\" width=\"358\" height=\"344\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To Alan Greenspan, who wrote so astutely of the lessons of 1929, the threat must  weigh heavily. The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming that Wall Street is in some type of bubble – a mania where valuations and expectations have disconnected from reality. If that is indeed the case, then what lies ahead is inevitable. And the downside risk is grossly underestimated by today’s investor. With valuations based on the broad S&amp;P 500 Index (but downside risk expressed in more familiar DJIA point terms), the table below shows how far today’s stock market could tumble before hitting 70-year average valuations. NOTE: This is only to average valuation levels since 1928, not the extreme lows that are typical in most bear markets!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":6012,\"width\":380,\"height\":166,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/valuation-risk-300x130.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6012\" width=\"380\" height=\"166\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In one sense, it doesn’t matter whether today’s bubble unwinds in a deflationary crisis as in 1929, or in a series of protracted bear markets as in the late 60’s. The consequences for the average investor were the same. Those who blindly followed a buy-&amp;-hold strategy were devastated, both financially and psychologically. Meanwhile, those investors who recognized the dangers and took evasive action weathered the fallout – or even profited handsomely in the years that followed.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It also matters little, if it is a bubble, what circumstance or event is blamed for “pricking” the overinflated balloon. Inevitably, the fact remains that much of the fault must lie with Wall Street itself. If not for the sirens and aggressive marketing in an overextended, overheated, overvalued bull market, then the excesses and speculation couldn’t reach such extremes. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The purpose of this special report is not to frighten or build the case for a crash. Our sole objective is to educate. It is a dangerous, perhaps even financially fatal assumption to think the next 5 years will be a repeat of the recent past. But historical precedent cannot be ignored. The 1980’s and 90’s are not the first era where investors have been pushed away from inflation hedges, real estate, bonds, and cash. And, as revealed inside, it would not be the first such bubble created by these disinflation forces. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Only time, and 20/20 hindsight, will reveal if today’s “new era” is a mirage – merely  an old era carried to new levels of excess. Unfortunately, the symptoms are present and warning flags are flying high. <strong>Yet even if Wall Street is in a bubble destined to deflate, one must also remember that the devastation which followed the late 20’s and late 60’s created tremendous profit opportunities for those astute investors who understood and perceived what was happening. The historical perspective and evidence presented in this report serve as a vital step in that direction.</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The New Paradigm... Era -or- Bubble?','A critical look at the unprecedented events that unfolded on Wall Street during the high-tech bubble of the late 1990s. Was it a New Era? Or was history repeating itself? What were the danger signs every investor should have known?','inherit','closed','closed','','2497-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 21:56:48','2021-06-09 21:56:48','',2497,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8288',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8290,3,'2021-06-09 22:10:49','2021-06-09 22:10:49','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8240,\"width\":403,\"height\":512,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8240\" width=\"403\" height=\"512\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 464.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 307.6% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.5% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.8%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 22:10:49','2021-06-09 22:10:49','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8290',0,'revision','',0);
