INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8291,3,'2021-06-09 22:12:30','2021-06-09 22:12:30','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8240,\"width\":403,\"height\":512,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8240\" width=\"403\" height=\"512\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 464.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 307.6% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.5% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.8%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-09 22:12:30','2021-06-09 22:12:30','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8291',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8292,3,'2021-06-10 22:21:52','2021-06-10 22:21:52','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:21:52','2021-06-10 22:21:52','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8292',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8293,3,'2021-06-10 22:22:13','2021-06-10 22:22:13','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":284,\"height\":241,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"284\" height=\"241\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:22:13','2021-06-10 22:22:13','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8293',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8295,3,'2021-06-10 22:22:44','2021-06-10 22:22:44','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":314,\"height\":266,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"314\" height=\"266\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":395,\"height\":290,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"395\" height=\"290\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:22:44','2021-06-10 22:22:44','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8295',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8296,3,'2021-06-10 22:23:12','2021-06-10 22:23:12','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":338,\"height\":286,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"338\" height=\"286\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":428,\"height\":314,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"428\" height=\"314\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:23:12','2021-06-10 22:23:12','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8296',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8298,3,'2021-06-10 22:23:41','2021-06-10 22:23:41','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":359,\"height\":304,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"359\" height=\"304\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:23:41','2021-06-10 22:23:41','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8298',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8299,3,'2021-06-10 22:28:49','2021-06-10 22:28:49','','SBLs','','inherit','closed','closed','','sbls-2','','','2021-06-10 22:28:49','2021-06-10 22:28:49','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8300,3,'2021-06-10 22:29:06','2021-06-10 22:29:06','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":359,\"height\":304,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"359\" height=\"304\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:29:06','2021-06-10 22:29:06','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8300',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8301,3,'2021-06-10 22:29:09','2021-06-10 22:29:09','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":359,\"height\":304,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"359\" height=\"304\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:29:09','2021-06-10 22:29:09','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8301',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8302,3,'2021-06-10 22:29:59','2021-06-10 22:29:59','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":359,\"height\":304,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"359\" height=\"304\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"width\":336,\"height\":226,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\" width=\"336\" height=\"226\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:29:59','2021-06-10 22:29:59','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8302',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8303,3,'2021-06-10 22:30:01','2021-06-10 22:30:01','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":359,\"height\":304,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"359\" height=\"304\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"width\":336,\"height\":226,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\" width=\"336\" height=\"226\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:30:01','2021-06-10 22:30:01','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8303',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8304,3,'2021-06-10 22:30:28','2021-06-10 22:30:28','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":366,\"height\":310,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"366\" height=\"310\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"width\":346,\"height\":233,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\" width=\"346\" height=\"233\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:30:28','2021-06-10 22:30:28','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8304',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8305,3,'2021-06-10 22:30:30','2021-06-10 22:30:30','<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:heading {\"className\":\"unclear\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"unclear\">Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":8264,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iceberg-4ReskwNsh68-unsplash-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8264\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong> - Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The article goes on to say, <em>\"Some of (this leverage) is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.\"</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Innovative Lending Practices Make a Come-back</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong></p><cite><em>Investment News, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong></p><cite><em>Reuters, 7/27/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans</strong></p><cite><em>Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":483,\"height\":237,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushleft\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushleft\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"483\" height=\"237\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":366,\"height\":310,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"366\" height=\"310\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":435,\"height\":319,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\",\"className\":\"pushright\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image pushright\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"435\" height=\"319\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"width\":346,\"height\":233,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\" width=\"346\" height=\"233\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>So, where’s the risk with SBLs?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Backed Loans','Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?\n\nAging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:30:30','2021-06-10 22:30:30','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8305',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8308,3,'2021-06-10 22:45:05','2021-06-10 22:45:05','<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":8} -->\n<div style=\"height:8px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Holland, 1636</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\",\"width\":\"60%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\" style=\"flex-basis:60%\"><!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One would suppose that there must have been some great virtue in this flower to have made it so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the perfume of the rose – hardly the beauty of the ‘sweet, sweet-pea;’ neither is it as enduring as either…\"</p><p>\"At last, however, the more prudent began to see that this folly could not last for ever… It was seen that somebody must lose fearfully in the end. As this conviction spread, prices fell, and never rose again. Confidence was destroyed, and a universal panic seized upon the dealers.\"</p><cite>– Tulipomania, Holland, 1636, excerpted from Extraordinary Popular Delusions &amp; the Madness of Crowds, written by Charles Mackay 1841</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4887,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Jan_Brueghel_the_Younger_Satire_Tulip_Mania_1640-1024x655.jpg\" alt=\"Painting, A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel, c. 1640\" class=\"wp-image-4887\"/><figcaption>A Satire of Tulip Mania by Jan Brueghel the Younger (ca. 1640) depicts speculators as brainless monkeys in contemporary upper-class dress.</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Fast forward to 2017: Cryptocurrency Markets</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The quotes above referring to the Tulipomania of the 1600s may seem bizarre and distant to many. However, we see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Wealth Managers Are Being Inundated With Calls About Bitcoin</p><cite>Bloomberg, 11/21/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Someone in 2010 bought 2 pizzas with 10,000 bitcoins – which today would be worth $100 million</p><cite>Business Insider, 11/28/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Owning bitcoin is so much damn fun</p><cite>Yahoo! Finance, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin swings from bull to bear and back in a day </p><cite>Financial Times, 11/30/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin’s Wildest Ride: Up 40% in 40 Hours </p><cite>Wall Street Journal, 12/7/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p>Bitcoin Futures Debut With 26% Rally, Trigger CBOE Trading Halts</p><cite>Bloomberg, 12/11/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin and the Lure of Decentralization</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bitcoin is the most widely-recognized and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Specifically, a cryptocurrency is a digital currency which has no central issuing or regulating authority, but instead uses a decentralized system of computers to record transactions and manage the issuance of new units. The digital asset relies on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions. While over 1,000 unique cryptocurrencies exist today, they all share a common purpose: to enable and serve decentralized applications – a way to create a self-supporting service that no single entity operates or regulates.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Way of the future? It’s complicated…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Cryptocurrencies may sound like the way of the future, but they are incredibly complex and difficult to understand. To illustrate, let’s take a high-level look at a theoretical transaction paid for in Bitcoin, as depicted by the flow chart at the below. Once the transaction is proposed, independent entities (called “miners”) compete on the open network to time stamp and verify the transaction by performing computationally difficult calculations. The reward for winning the elaborate race to verify and add the transaction to the public digital ledger (the blockchain) is a fraction of the transaction’s value, plus a processing fee, both denominated in Bitcoin. The integrity of the ledger is upheld by the economic self-interest of the miners – pure, unadulterated capitalism.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8307,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/bitcoinflowchart.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8307\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Bitcoin vs. Internet Bubble</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4739,\"width\":352,\"height\":416,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs. the Internet Bubble chart via Yahoo! Finance\" class=\"wp-image-4739\" width=\"352\" height=\"416\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Although Bitcoin has been in existence since 2009, its ascension to mainstream relevance is far more recent. Originally beloved by a very small group of passionate believers, Bitcoin saw relatively steady price appreciation in its early years while remaining virtually unknown to the general public. Over time, public enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin has crescendoed, with the price of the digital currency rising exponentially, attracting hordes of amateur “investors” and speculators. As a result, the price of one Bitcoin has exploded by an absurd +3960% since the beginning of 2016! The ride has been volatile, including five drawdowns of at least -25% (daily close) during that period. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise dwarfs even the gains seen in the Internet Index at the peak of the notorious Tech Bubble. ➞</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Love at First Bit?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Why has the world seemingly become enamored with the concept of cryptocurrencies? The following are some of the advantages being widely touted by Bitcoin advocates:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Freedom </strong>– It is possible to send and receive Bitcoin payments anywhere in the world at any time, without scrutiny. Users don’t have to worry about third party delays or approvals, banking holidays, transfer limits, or any other laws due to lack of central authority.</li><li><strong>Anonymity </strong>– Anyone, of any age, from anywhere in the world, with access to the Internet can transact with Bitcoins without providing any paperwork or proof of identification. Since personal information is not being tied to transactions, the risk of identity theft is eliminated.</li><li><strong>Low Fees </strong>– Transaction fees for processing Bitcoin payments are relatively low. Additionally, digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) can help merchants process transactions by converting Bitcoins into fiat currency for a fee that is generally lower than most credit card processing fees.</li><li><strong>Less Risk for Merchants </strong>– Because Bitcoin transactions cannot be reversed and do not carry any personal information with them, merchants are protected from potential losses that could occur from credit card fraud.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Despite the increasing hype and number of new Bitcoin advocates, doubters and skeptics abound – and you can count us among them. An asset’s value does not go parabolic without carrying extreme risk. In addition, there are numerous pitfalls and uncertainties associated with cryptocurrencies:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Price Volatility </strong>– It is impossible for Bitcoin to be a good store of value and a legitimate tool for transacting business when prices change so rapidly. Imagine trying to buy a car with Bitcoin when its value is gyrating by hundreds, or even thousands of dollars over a short period of time.</li><li><strong>Intangible </strong>– Many skeptics take issue with the fact that a Bitcoin is represented by a unique string of numbers stored on a hard drive – there is no physical coin.</li><li><strong>Moral Dilemma</strong> – The anonymity provided by Bitcoin is a double-edged sword, as it makes the digital currency inherently ideal for black market dealings.</li><li><strong>Regulation </strong>– The IRS has begun taxing digital currency gains and payments. Furthermore, there is the potential that certain countries could attempt to ban cryptocurrencies altogether, particularly if terrorist activities are funded by Bitcoin.</li><li><strong>Cybersecurity and Fraud </strong>– Digital currency assets can be stolen by hackers. Additionally, as the demand for cryptocurrencies has grown, scammers and poseurs have created their own bogus digital assets.</li><li><strong>Scalability</strong> – Major digital currency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) have had difficulty handling traffic, which causes scalability and liquidity issues.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Our Perspective</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4742,\"width\":462,\"height\":260,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bitcoin-3-kings-cartoon.jpg\" alt=\"Cartoon depicting three wise men, one offering bitcoin...\" class=\"wp-image-4742\" width=\"462\" height=\"260\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Throughout history, there have been numerous examples of revolutionary ideas or innovations that turned into dangerous bubbles due to feverish speculation and Wall Street hype ─ regardless of the good intentions of the underlying concept. In our opinion, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are among them. Any dispute regarding the practical applications of Bitcoin matters not to the crazed speculators driving today’s rampant price gains.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many will argue that cryptocurrencies are isolated from other aspects of the economy and financial markets. However, we are concerned that the potential impact of a violent collapse in cryptocurrency prices could be bigger and more far-reaching than anticipated. And we are not alone:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Why Bitcoin’s Bubble Matters</strong>  <span style=\"font-size: inherit;\">If there’s a price crash in the cryptocurrency, it could hit the tech sector–and more</span></p><cite>Wall Street Journal - 10/8/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><span style=\"font-size: inherit;\"><strong>Deutsche Bank Economist Says a Bitcoin Crash Would Endanger Global Markets</strong></span> </p><cite>Fortune - 12/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Whether speculation is in tulip bulbs, real estate, stocks, sub-prime mortgages, or cryptocurrencies, the pattern is usually the same. For investors, emotions run the gamut from greed, to defiance, to fear at any hint of a disruption in the system. Unless you have a voracious appetite for risk and a high tolerance for loss, today’s cryptocurrency bubble is best left to the speculators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our December 15, 2017 issue.  Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Bitcoin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Bitcoin - Tiptoe, through the Tulips...','We see striking similarities between the investor psychology that once surrounded those antiquated tulip bulbs and that which is driving the current mania in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.','inherit','closed','closed','','2418-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:45:05','2021-06-10 22:45:05','',2418,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8308',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8310,3,'2021-06-10 22:56:38','2021-06-10 22:56:38','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-10 22:56:38','2021-06-10 22:56:38','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8310',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8312,3,'2021-06-11 14:19:25','2021-06-11 14:19:25','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/Bare-Necessities.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:19:25','2021-06-11 14:19:25','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8312',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8313,3,'2021-06-11 14:20:34','2021-06-11 14:20:34','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BearFund.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:20:34','2021-06-11 14:20:34','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8313',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8314,3,'2021-06-11 14:20:36','2021-06-11 14:20:36','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BearFund.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:20:36','2021-06-11 14:20:36','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8314',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8316,3,'2021-06-11 14:21:54','2021-06-11 14:21:54','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list below, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BearFund.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:21:54','2021-06-11 14:21:54','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8316',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8317,3,'2021-06-11 14:21:56','2021-06-11 14:21:56','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns.  With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation to cash, bear fund, and long funds.\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Can you provide a list of bear fund alternatives?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list below, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"alternatives to bear market funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BearFund.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. \n','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:21:56','2021-06-11 14:21:56','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8317',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8318,3,'2021-06-11 14:25:19','2021-06-11 14:25:19','','InvesTech Performance Letter','','inherit','closed','closed','','investech-performance-letter','','','2021-06-11 14:25:19','2021-06-11 14:25:19','',0,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8319,3,'2021-06-11 14:25:47','2021-06-11 14:25:47','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Strategy and Performance</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. Over the past 40 years, InvesTech has earned a widely respected reputation for our objective analysis and safety-first investment philosophy. While profits are important, we know that earning profits is only half the picture. Preserving one’s portfolio (and profits) through a severe bear market like 2000-02 or 2007-09 can make the difference between a comfortable retirement or financial disaster.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech\'s time-proven strategy involves measuring market risk – and taking maximum advantage of those investment opportunities when risk is the lowest. Our objective is to contain losses in a bear market to less than half of the decline of the broad market averages and to capture at least 80% of the upside during bull markets. Historically, we have been successful in achieving this goal which not only outperforms market averages over the long-term, but also significantly reduces volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Hulbert Ranking</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The final issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest, published in February 2016, included the ranking of top mutual fund newsletters and showed that InvesTech Research was #1 in long-term performance –both for risk adjusted and unadjusted performance– with an annualized gain of 8.7% per year… almost double the Wilshire 5000\'s annual return over the same period.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4522,\"width\":768,\"height\":394,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Hulbert-1024x525.png\" alt=\"Clipping from Hulbert Financial Digest ranking InvesTech against other top mutual fund newsletters.\" class=\"wp-image-4522\" width=\"768\" height=\"394\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>InvesTech’s Performance (2000 – current)</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8240,\"width\":403,\"height\":512,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/performance-806x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8240\" width=\"403\" height=\"512\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Back-to-back devastating bear markets in 2000-02 and 2007-09 have left most investors questioning the viability of a buy-and-hold strategy. At InvesTech we do not follow a buy-and-hold investment philosophy. Instead, we adjust equity exposure according to our assessment of market risk. This judgment is made based on InvesTech\'s time-tested proprietary technical indicators, historical analysis, and current economic and political forces.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Our safety-first investment philosophy led investors safely through the bear market of 2000-02. During this period, our defensive holdings and high-cash position protected subscribers from devastating bear market losses and kept our Model Portfolio essentially intact. In the 2007-09 bear market we achieved our objective of limiting losses to less than half the decline of the market averages (graph at right). In April 2009, just weeks after the official bear market low, we once again began increasing our invested allocation in anticipation of a new bull market. Since January 2000, the InvesTech Model Portfolio has gained 464.5%, while the S&amp;P 500 is up only 307.6% (including dividends). During the period January 1, 2000 through September 30, 2020, annualized performance of the InvesTech Model Portfolio was +8.5% compared to the S&amp;P 500 Total Return Index gain of +6.8%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>During the Bubble Years (1996-1999)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech’s technical indicators were among the first to confirm the U.S. stock market had embarked on a dangerous valuation bubble. That placed our safety-first philosophy in direct conflict with the mania on Wall Street. We made a very difficult decision during this period to step aside from the bubble. While we did not track our Model Portfolio performance prior to 2000, Hulbert Financial Digest data showed our total return for 1996 closely approximated that of a money market fund.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In defense of our high-cash position, we do not come across bubbles every day on Wall Street. This one, along with 1929, had been the only two clearly definable bubbles of the century. While we have developed new technical tools that will, hopefully, allow us to take part in and profit from similar situations in the future, we will never abandon the principles of our safety-first philosophy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Performance Prior to the Bubble (pre-1996)</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 1996, InvesTech was recognized as one of only six financial advisory newsletters to have beaten the market on a risk-adjusted basis since inception in the early 1980s. And an October 1995 Forbes article described InvesTech’s long-term portfolio performance as “more or less impervious to declines.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The reason is simple: InvesTech has an established reputation for maximizing safety-first profits. But reducing risk from major bear markets can be even more important, as shown in 1987 when InvesTech received widespread recognition from USA Today, The Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times for moving to a 100% cash position just prior to the October Crash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As an experienced investor, you must decide what performance means to you. Someone who is willing to wait 10 years or more to recover after losing two-thirds of their portfolio in a generational bear market, may not agree with our safety-first approach. On the other hand, if you have a deep respect for market risk and the impact that a devastating bear market can have on your portfolio or emotional well-being, then InvesTech Research offers what you are looking for… a risk-averse strategy and the ability to identify and take advantage of the best profit opportunities when they appear.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":5838,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/perf-table-533x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5838\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-dots\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/InvesTech-Performance-Letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Model Fund Portfolio Performance','As an investor in today’s volatile markets, you naturally have questions about our strategy and the historical performance of our Model Portfolio. ','inherit','closed','closed','','5821-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:25:47','2021-06-11 14:25:47','',5821,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8319',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8320,3,'2021-06-11 14:28:30','2021-06-11 14:28:30','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:28:30','2021-06-11 14:28:30','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8320',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8322,3,'2021-06-11 14:42:55','2021-06-11 14:42:55','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments.  We’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Dark Side of Passive Investing – Live by the Index, Die by the Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As noted, history shows that index investing reaches the highest level of popularity in aging bull markets or near market peaks. The reason for this is that any type of “risk management” during a bull market tends to reduce or moderate a fund manager’s return. Consequently, it is not uncommon for a fully invested S&amp;P 500 Index fund to outperform most actively managed mutual funds and money managers when measured solely over the duration of a bull market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are multiple reasons index or passive investing becomes more popular in an aging bull market. First, it is more comfortable. One doesn’t have the burden of making decisions about which stocks to invest in, or when to sell a stock if it rises or falls precipitously. Indexing also tends to remove the regret from bad decisions, because any loss can be attributed entirely to the market. Lastly, investing in an index fund is the cheapest and easiest way to take advantage of the market’s stellar gains which seem likely to continue. Yet before jumping into the indexing mania today, consider these inherent risks in passive investing…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:code -->\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>By definition, index funds also guarantee that you will suffer 100% of the next bear market’s decline.  Regardless of which index you are matching, the index fund is required to stay fully invested regardless of market risk or volatility. \n\nAssets flowing into the most popular index funds are funneling investments into the largest and most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them higher.  The S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money invested into these popular index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks.  Rather, the largest companies by market cap receive a disproportionate amount of the investment.  As a result, investors must take the good with the bad and favor the largest companies within the basket of 500 stocks, regardless of valuation and financial strength (or lack thereof).\n\nMarket volatility increases when interest narrows to the index heavyweights.  Only 50 stocks account for nearly 50% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and one-half of an index fund’s portfolio.  Additionally, the top 10 largest stocks comprise over 20% of the Index.  As a result, downside risk in the next bear market could increase if selling pressure hits the largest stocks at the same time. The increased focus on index investing of late may very well increase both the size of, and speed at which the next bear market decline occurs. \n\nIntraday liquidity for ETFs can experience dramatic structural challenges in times of market distress.   For example, during the market dislocation on August 24, 2015 the liquidity of most ETFs all but dried up just as the market opened.  A confluence of problems –including circuit breakers, an obscure NYSE rule allowing market makers to delay posting prices, and a lack of futures data for large hedgers– all combined to take the bid out of the ETF space.  Even large, well-established ETFs like the $116 billion iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) saw unprecedented declines.  As shown on the graph below, IVV fell -26% on the open, far more than the -5.3% drop of the underlying S&amp;P 500.  As a result of this liquidity hiccup, or “flash crash” as it was called at the time,  investors with outstanding market orders and stop-loss orders sold their shares in IVV for far less than their worth.</code></pre>\n<!-- /wp:code -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:42:55','2021-06-11 14:42:55','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8322',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8325,3,'2021-06-11 14:49:21','2021-06-11 14:49:21','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments.  We’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Dark Side of Passive Investing – Live by the Index, Die by the Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As noted, history shows that index investing reaches the highest level of popularity in aging bull markets or near market peaks. The reason for this is that any type of “risk management” during a bull market tends to reduce or moderate a fund manager’s return. Consequently, it is not uncommon for a fully invested S&amp;P 500 Index fund to outperform most actively managed mutual funds and money managers when measured solely over the duration of a bull market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are multiple reasons index or passive investing becomes more popular in an aging bull market. First, it is more comfortable. One doesn’t have the burden of making decisions about which stocks to invest in, or when to sell a stock if it rises or falls precipitously. Indexing also tends to remove the regret from bad decisions, because any loss can be attributed entirely to the market. Lastly, investing in an index fund is the cheapest and easiest way to take advantage of the market’s stellar gains which seem likely to continue. Yet before jumping into the indexing mania today, consider these inherent risks in passive investing…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>By definition, index funds also guarantee that you will suffer 100% of the next bear market’s decline. Regardless of which index you are matching, the index fund is required to stay fully invested regardless of market risk or volatility.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Assets flowing into the most popular index funds are funneling investments into the largest and most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them higher. The S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money invested into these popular index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Rather, the largest companies by market cap receive a disproportionate amount of the investment. As a result, investors must take the good with the bad and favor the largest companies within the basket of 500 stocks, regardless of valuation and financial strength (or lack thereof).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Market volatility increases when interest narrows to the index heavyweights. Only 50 stocks account for nearly 50% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and one-half of an index fund’s portfolio. Additionally, the top 10 largest stocks comprise over 20% of the Index. As a result, downside risk in the next bear market could increase if selling pressure hits the largest stocks at the same time. The increased focus on index investing of late may very well increase both the size of, and speed at which the next bear market decline occurs.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8324,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iShares-Core-SP-500-ETF.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8324\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Intraday liquidity for ETFs can experience dramatic structural challenges in times of market distress. For example, during the market dislocation on August 24, 2015 the liquidity of most ETFs all but dried up just as the market opened. A confluence of problems –including circuit breakers, an obscure NYSE rule allowing market makers to delay posting prices, and a lack of futures data for large hedgers– all combined to take the bid out of the ETF space. Even large, well-established ETFs like the $116 billion iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) saw unprecedented declines. As shown on the graph below, IVV fell -26% on the open, far more than the -5.3% drop of the underlying S&amp;P 500. As a result of this liquidity hiccup, or “flash crash” as it was called at the time, investors with outstanding market orders and stop-loss orders sold their shares in IVV for far less than their worth.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bottom Line</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The broad diversification and implied liquidity offered by index ETFs gives many investors a false sense of security. When passively investing in an index, devoid of risk management, investors are still subject to varying degrees of valuation and liquidity risk, and they bear the full brunt of cyclical market risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Risk Management is Vital to any Strategy – <em>Ignore at your own peril!</em></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many actively managed mutual funds and money managers take some steps to mitigate portfolio risk – at times to the detriment of bull market performance. Although passive indexing may appear to be easier and is also perceived to reduce risk, it ends up having the opposite effect during major downturns as it guarantees an investor will experience all of the losses in the corresponding market index. Remember, long-term performance is dependent not only on how much you make in the bull markets, but also how much you give back in the bear markets. Investments that are weighted toward the largest, most overvalued stocks and sectors are exactly the opposite of what might be used in a strategy that manages risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index investing proponents generally downplay stock market cycles, but bear market survivability is a very real issue for many investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement. The decision to hold the course on an investment strategy usually depends on the severity of bear market losses and how long one’s portfolio remains underwater… in other words, how much time it takes to recover those losses.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To effectively demonstrate this concept, the Ulcer Index was developed in 1987 by Peter Martin to measure the depth and duration of drawdowns from earlier highs in one’s portfolio. It provides a graphic illustration of the level of stress and ulcers (hence the name) that can emerge from suffering deep, prolonged losses in one’s retirement savings.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Shown at right are the comparative Ulcer Index graphs of the InvesTech Model Portfolio versus the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), which is the largest and most popular fund on the market today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The starts of the last two bear markets are noted in March 2000 and October 2007, as well as their subsequent market bottoms in October 2002 and March 2009. The green dashed lines illustrate the number of months required after the market bottom for one’s portfolio to recover the losses. Above all, the red shaded areas designate how long, and how deep one’s portfolio was underwater. These are the so-called “ulcer” zones when an investor must wait and wonder how long it will be before his portfolio is whole again.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As you’ll note, InvesTech’s “risk management” strategy dramatically reduced the stress of the last two generational bear markets by limiting the time spent in the “ulcer” zones. While the InvesTech Model Portfolio didn’t outperform the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund in the bull markets, our ability to manage and reduce risk provided a long-term return which more than doubled that of the Vanguard index fund. More importantly, InvesTech subscribers lost significantly less and recovered much more quickly during bear markets, avoiding the urge to panic out of the market at the wrong time.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is this combination of achieving safe returns and managing downside risk that matters most in the long-term performance of one’s portfolio… and in the survivability of bear markets.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:49:21','2021-06-11 14:49:21','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8325',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8327,3,'2021-06-11 14:51:29','2021-06-11 14:51:29','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments.  We’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Dark Side of Passive Investing – Live by the Index, Die by the Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As noted, history shows that index investing reaches the highest level of popularity in aging bull markets or near market peaks. The reason for this is that any type of “risk management” during a bull market tends to reduce or moderate a fund manager’s return. Consequently, it is not uncommon for a fully invested S&amp;P 500 Index fund to outperform most actively managed mutual funds and money managers when measured solely over the duration of a bull market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are multiple reasons index or passive investing becomes more popular in an aging bull market. First, it is more comfortable. One doesn’t have the burden of making decisions about which stocks to invest in, or when to sell a stock if it rises or falls precipitously. Indexing also tends to remove the regret from bad decisions, because any loss can be attributed entirely to the market. Lastly, investing in an index fund is the cheapest and easiest way to take advantage of the market’s stellar gains which seem likely to continue. Yet before jumping into the indexing mania today, consider these inherent risks in passive investing…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>By definition, index funds also guarantee that you will suffer 100% of the next bear market’s decline. Regardless of which index you are matching, the index fund is required to stay fully invested regardless of market risk or volatility.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Assets flowing into the most popular index funds are funneling investments into the largest and most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them higher. The S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money invested into these popular index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Rather, the largest companies by market cap receive a disproportionate amount of the investment. As a result, investors must take the good with the bad and favor the largest companies within the basket of 500 stocks, regardless of valuation and financial strength (or lack thereof).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Market volatility increases when interest narrows to the index heavyweights. Only 50 stocks account for nearly 50% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and one-half of an index fund’s portfolio. Additionally, the top 10 largest stocks comprise over 20% of the Index. As a result, downside risk in the next bear market could increase if selling pressure hits the largest stocks at the same time. The increased focus on index investing of late may very well increase both the size of, and speed at which the next bear market decline occurs.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8324,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iShares-Core-SP-500-ETF.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8324\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Intraday liquidity for ETFs can experience dramatic structural challenges in times of market distress. For example, during the market dislocation on August 24, 2015 the liquidity of most ETFs all but dried up just as the market opened. A confluence of problems –including circuit breakers, an obscure NYSE rule allowing market makers to delay posting prices, and a lack of futures data for large hedgers– all combined to take the bid out of the ETF space. Even large, well-established ETFs like the $116 billion iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) saw unprecedented declines. As shown on the graph below, IVV fell -26% on the open, far more than the -5.3% drop of the underlying S&amp;P 500. As a result of this liquidity hiccup, or “flash crash” as it was called at the time, investors with outstanding market orders and stop-loss orders sold their shares in IVV for far less than their worth.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bottom Line</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The broad diversification and implied liquidity offered by index ETFs gives many investors a false sense of security. When passively investing in an index, devoid of risk management, investors are still subject to varying degrees of valuation and liquidity risk, and they bear the full brunt of cyclical market risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Risk Management is Vital to any Strategy – <em>Ignore at your own peril!</em></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many actively managed mutual funds and money managers take some steps to mitigate portfolio risk – at times to the detriment of bull market performance. Although passive indexing may appear to be easier and is also perceived to reduce risk, it ends up having the opposite effect during major downturns as it guarantees an investor will experience all of the losses in the corresponding market index. Remember, long-term performance is dependent not only on how much you make in the bull markets, but also how much you give back in the bear markets. Investments that are weighted toward the largest, most overvalued stocks and sectors are exactly the opposite of what might be used in a strategy that manages risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index investing proponents generally downplay stock market cycles, but bear market survivability is a very real issue for many investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement. The decision to hold the course on an investment strategy usually depends on the severity of bear market losses and how long one’s portfolio remains underwater… in other words, how much time it takes to recover those losses.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To effectively demonstrate this concept, the Ulcer Index was developed in 1987 by Peter Martin to measure the depth and duration of drawdowns from earlier highs in one’s portfolio. It provides a graphic illustration of the level of stress and ulcers (hence the name) that can emerge from suffering deep, prolonged losses in one’s retirement savings.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Shown at right are the comparative Ulcer Index graphs of the InvesTech Model Portfolio versus the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), which is the largest and most popular fund on the market today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The starts of the last two bear markets are noted in March 2000 and October 2007, as well as their subsequent market bottoms in October 2002 and March 2009. The green dashed lines illustrate the number of months required after the market bottom for one’s portfolio to recover the losses. Above all, the red shaded areas designate how long, and how deep one’s portfolio was underwater. These are the so-called “ulcer” zones when an investor must wait and wonder how long it will be before his portfolio is whole again.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As you’ll note, InvesTech’s “risk management” strategy dramatically reduced the stress of the last two generational bear markets by limiting the time spent in the “ulcer” zones. While the InvesTech Model Portfolio didn’t outperform the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund in the bull markets, our ability to manage and reduce risk provided a long-term return which more than doubled that of the Vanguard index fund. More importantly, InvesTech subscribers lost significantly less and recovered much more quickly during bear markets, avoiding the urge to panic out of the market at the wrong time.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is this combination of achieving safe returns and managing downside risk that matters most in the long-term performance of one’s portfolio… and in the survivability of bear markets.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/inline-notice {\"block_id\":\"04328f4a\",\"noticeContent\":\"\\u003cp\\u003ePast performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  \\u003c/p\\u003e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-inline-notice uagb-inline_notice__outer-wrap uagb-inline_notice__align-left uagb-block-04328f4a\"><h4 class=\"uagb-notice-title\">Important Disclosure Information</h4><div class=\"uagb-notice-text\"><p>Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  </p></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/inline-notice -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:51:29','2021-06-11 14:51:29','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8327',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8330,3,'2021-06-11 14:57:17','2021-06-11 14:57:17','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments.  We’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Dark Side of Passive Investing – Live by the Index, Die by the Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As noted, history shows that index investing reaches the highest level of popularity in aging bull markets or near market peaks. The reason for this is that any type of “risk management” during a bull market tends to reduce or moderate a fund manager’s return. Consequently, it is not uncommon for a fully invested S&amp;P 500 Index fund to outperform most actively managed mutual funds and money managers when measured solely over the duration of a bull market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are multiple reasons index or passive investing becomes more popular in an aging bull market. First, it is more comfortable. One doesn’t have the burden of making decisions about which stocks to invest in, or when to sell a stock if it rises or falls precipitously. Indexing also tends to remove the regret from bad decisions, because any loss can be attributed entirely to the market. Lastly, investing in an index fund is the cheapest and easiest way to take advantage of the market’s stellar gains which seem likely to continue. Yet before jumping into the indexing mania today, consider these inherent risks in passive investing…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>By definition, index funds also guarantee that you will suffer 100% of the next bear market’s decline. Regardless of which index you are matching, the index fund is required to stay fully invested regardless of market risk or volatility.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Assets flowing into the most popular index funds are funneling investments into the largest and most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them higher. The S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money invested into these popular index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Rather, the largest companies by market cap receive a disproportionate amount of the investment. As a result, investors must take the good with the bad and favor the largest companies within the basket of 500 stocks, regardless of valuation and financial strength (or lack thereof).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Market volatility increases when interest narrows to the index heavyweights. Only 50 stocks account for nearly 50% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and one-half of an index fund’s portfolio. Additionally, the top 10 largest stocks comprise over 20% of the Index. As a result, downside risk in the next bear market could increase if selling pressure hits the largest stocks at the same time. The increased focus on index investing of late may very well increase both the size of, and speed at which the next bear market decline occurs.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8324,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iShares-Core-SP-500-ETF.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8324\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Intraday liquidity for ETFs can experience dramatic structural challenges in times of market distress. For example, during the market dislocation on August 24, 2015 the liquidity of most ETFs all but dried up just as the market opened. A confluence of problems –including circuit breakers, an obscure NYSE rule allowing market makers to delay posting prices, and a lack of futures data for large hedgers– all combined to take the bid out of the ETF space. Even large, well-established ETFs like the $116 billion iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) saw unprecedented declines. As shown on the graph below, IVV fell -26% on the open, far more than the -5.3% drop of the underlying S&amp;P 500. As a result of this liquidity hiccup, or “flash crash” as it was called at the time, investors with outstanding market orders and stop-loss orders sold their shares in IVV for far less than their worth.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bottom Line</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The broad diversification and implied liquidity offered by index ETFs gives many investors a false sense of security. When passively investing in an index, devoid of risk management, investors are still subject to varying degrees of valuation and liquidity risk, and they bear the full brunt of cyclical market risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Risk Management is Vital to any Strategy – <em>Ignore at your own peril!</em></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many actively managed mutual funds and money managers take some steps to mitigate portfolio risk – at times to the detriment of bull market performance. Although passive indexing may appear to be easier and is also perceived to reduce risk, it ends up having the opposite effect during major downturns as it guarantees an investor will experience all of the losses in the corresponding market index. Remember, long-term performance is dependent not only on how much you make in the bull markets, but also how much you give back in the bear markets. Investments that are weighted toward the largest, most overvalued stocks and sectors are exactly the opposite of what might be used in a strategy that manages risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index investing proponents generally downplay stock market cycles, but bear market survivability is a very real issue for many investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement. The decision to hold the course on an investment strategy usually depends on the severity of bear market losses and how long one’s portfolio remains underwater… in other words, how much time it takes to recover those losses.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To effectively demonstrate this concept, the Ulcer Index was developed in 1987 by Peter Martin to measure the depth and duration of drawdowns from earlier highs in one’s portfolio. It provides a graphic illustration of the level of stress and ulcers (hence the name) that can emerge from suffering deep, prolonged losses in one’s retirement savings.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Shown below are the comparative Ulcer Index graphs of the InvesTech Model Portfolio versus the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), which is the largest and most popular fund on the market today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8329,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/IT-Portfolio-vs-Vanguard-Ulcer-Index.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8329\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The starts of the last two bear markets are noted in March 2000 and October 2007, as well as their subsequent market bottoms in October 2002 and March 2009. The green dashed lines illustrate the number of months required after the market bottom for one’s portfolio to recover the losses. Above all, the red shaded areas designate how long, and how deep one’s portfolio was underwater. These are the so-called “ulcer” zones when an investor must wait and wonder how long it will be before his portfolio is whole again.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As you’ll note, InvesTech’s “risk management” strategy dramatically reduced the stress of the last two generational bear markets by limiting the time spent in the “ulcer” zones. While the InvesTech Model Portfolio didn’t outperform the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund in the bull markets, our ability to manage and reduce risk provided a long-term return which more than doubled that of the Vanguard index fund. More importantly, InvesTech subscribers lost significantly less and recovered much more quickly during bear markets, avoiding the urge to panic out of the market at the wrong time.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is this combination of achieving safe returns and managing downside risk that matters most in the long-term performance of one’s portfolio… and in the survivability of bear markets.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/inline-notice {\"block_id\":\"04328f4a\",\"noticeContent\":\"\\u003cp\\u003ePast performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  \\u003ca href=\\u0022http://Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.\\u0022 target=\\u0022_blank\\u0022 rel=\\u0022noreferrer noopener\\u0022\\u003eRead full Disclosures here.\\u003c/a\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-inline-notice uagb-inline_notice__outer-wrap uagb-inline_notice__align-left uagb-block-04328f4a\"><h4 class=\"uagb-notice-title\">Important Disclosure Information</h4><div class=\"uagb-notice-text\"><p>Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  <a href=\"http://Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read full Disclosures here.</a></p></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/inline-notice -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 14:57:17','2021-06-11 14:57:17','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8330',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (8332,3,'2021-06-11 15:15:29','2021-06-11 15:15:29','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":8270,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/rollercoaster-qac9q3pwhwg-unsplash/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":38} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 38%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/rollercoaster-qac9Q3pWHWg-unsplash-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8270 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? </h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong></p><cite>MarketWatch, 1/31/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> </p><cite>LA Times, 4/9/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> </p><cite>Financial Times, 5/10/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong></p><cite>Barron\'s, 5/3/17</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph below, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So, why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip Back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The late 1990s: </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong></p><cite> Fortune, 11/9/98</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong></p><cite>Business Week 2/22/99</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In <strong>March 1999</strong>, InvesTech Research published the issue shown at right, <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/subscriber-library/lemming-principle/\">comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings</a>. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>Fast-forward to 2006-07:</strong> Index investing was even <em>more</em> popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Research newsletter, &quot;The Lemming Principle,&quot; March 12, 1999\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Research newsletter, \"The Lemming Principle,\" March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong></p><cite>The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong></p><cite>Boston Globe, 2/27/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:quote {\"className\":\"is-style-headline-highlight\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-headline-highlight\"><p><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong></p><cite>USA Today, 7/20/07</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:block {\"ref\":5343} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments.  We’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Dark Side of Passive Investing – Live by the Index, Die by the Index</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As noted, history shows that index investing reaches the highest level of popularity in aging bull markets or near market peaks. The reason for this is that any type of “risk management” during a bull market tends to reduce or moderate a fund manager’s return. Consequently, it is not uncommon for a fully invested S&amp;P 500 Index fund to outperform most actively managed mutual funds and money managers when measured solely over the duration of a bull market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are multiple reasons index or passive investing becomes more popular in an aging bull market. First, it is more comfortable. One doesn’t have the burden of making decisions about which stocks to invest in, or when to sell a stock if it rises or falls precipitously. Indexing also tends to remove the regret from bad decisions, because any loss can be attributed entirely to the market. Lastly, investing in an index fund is the cheapest and easiest way to take advantage of the market’s stellar gains which seem likely to continue. Yet before jumping into the indexing mania today, consider these inherent risks in passive investing…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>By definition, index funds also guarantee that you will suffer 100% of the next bear market’s decline. Regardless of which index you are matching, the index fund is required to stay fully invested regardless of market risk or volatility.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Assets flowing into the most popular index funds are funneling investments into the largest and most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them higher. The S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money invested into these popular index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Rather, the largest companies by market cap receive a disproportionate amount of the investment. As a result, investors must take the good with the bad and favor the largest companies within the basket of 500 stocks, regardless of valuation and financial strength (or lack thereof).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Market volatility increases when interest narrows to the index heavyweights. Only 50 stocks account for nearly 50% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and one-half of an index fund’s portfolio. Additionally, the top 10 largest stocks comprise over 20% of the Index. As a result, downside risk in the next bear market could increase if selling pressure hits the largest stocks at the same time. The increased focus on index investing of late may very well increase both the size of, and speed at which the next bear market decline occurs.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":8324,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/iShares-Core-SP-500-ETF.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8324\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list {\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<ul class=\"is-style-default\"><li>Intraday liquidity for ETFs can experience dramatic structural challenges in times of market distress. For example, during the market dislocation on August 24, 2015 the liquidity of most ETFs all but dried up just as the market opened. A confluence of problems –including circuit breakers, an obscure NYSE rule allowing market makers to delay posting prices, and a lack of futures data for large hedgers– all combined to take the bid out of the ETF space. Even large, well-established ETFs like the $116 billion iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV) saw unprecedented declines. As shown on the graph below, IVV fell -26% on the open, far more than the -5.3% drop of the underlying S&amp;P 500. As a result of this liquidity hiccup, or “flash crash” as it was called at the time, investors with outstanding market orders and stop-loss orders sold their shares in IVV for far less than their worth.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bottom Line</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The broad diversification and implied liquidity offered by index ETFs gives many investors a false sense of security. When passively investing in an index, devoid of risk management, investors are still subject to varying degrees of valuation and liquidity risk, and they bear the full brunt of cyclical market risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Risk Management is Vital to any Strategy – <em>Ignore at your own peril!</em></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many actively managed mutual funds and money managers take some steps to mitigate portfolio risk – at times to the detriment of bull market performance. Although passive indexing may appear to be easier and is also perceived to reduce risk, it ends up having the opposite effect during major downturns as it guarantees an investor will experience all of the losses in the corresponding market index. Remember, long-term performance is dependent not only on how much you make in the bull markets, but also how much you give back in the bear markets. Investments that are weighted toward the largest, most overvalued stocks and sectors are exactly the opposite of what might be used in a strategy that manages risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index investing proponents generally downplay stock market cycles, but bear market survivability is a very real issue for many investors, particularly those in or nearing retirement. The decision to hold the course on an investment strategy usually depends on the severity of bear market losses and how long one’s portfolio remains underwater… in other words, how much time it takes to recover those losses.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To effectively demonstrate this concept, the Ulcer Index was developed in 1987 by Peter Martin to measure the depth and duration of drawdowns from earlier highs in one’s portfolio. It provides a graphic illustration of the level of stress and ulcers (hence the name) that can emerge from suffering deep, prolonged losses in one’s retirement savings.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Shown below are the comparative Ulcer Index graphs of the InvesTech Model Portfolio versus the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), which is the largest and most popular fund on the market today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":8329,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/IT-Portfolio-vs-Vanguard-Ulcer-Index.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8329\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The starts of the last two bear markets are noted in March 2000 and October 2007, as well as their subsequent market bottoms in October 2002 and March 2009. The green dashed lines illustrate the number of months required after the market bottom for one’s portfolio to recover the losses. Above all, the red shaded areas designate how long, and how deep one’s portfolio was underwater. These are the so-called “ulcer” zones when an investor must wait and wonder how long it will be before his portfolio is whole again.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As you’ll note, InvesTech’s “risk management” strategy dramatically reduced the stress of the last two generational bear markets by limiting the time spent in the “ulcer” zones. While the InvesTech Model Portfolio didn’t outperform the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund in the bull markets, our ability to manage and reduce risk provided a long-term return which more than doubled that of the Vanguard index fund. More importantly, InvesTech subscribers lost significantly less and recovered much more quickly during bear markets, avoiding the urge to panic out of the market at the wrong time.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is this combination of achieving safe returns and managing downside risk that matters most in the long-term performance of one’s portfolio… and in the survivability of bear markets.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/inline-notice {\"block_id\":\"04328f4a\",\"noticeContent\":\"\\u003cp\\u003ePast performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  \\u003ca href=\\u0022http://Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.\\u0022 target=\\u0022_blank\\u0022 rel=\\u0022noreferrer noopener\\u0022\\u003eRead full Disclosures here.\\u003c/a\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-inline-notice uagb-inline_notice__outer-wrap uagb-inline_notice__align-left uagb-block-04328f4a\"><h4 class=\"uagb-notice-title\">Important Disclosure Information</h4><div class=\"uagb-notice-text\"><p>Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  <a href=\"http://Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by InvesTech Research) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read full Disclosures here.</a></p></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/inline-notice -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":33} -->\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format: <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top! In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public.','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-06-11 15:15:29','2021-06-11 15:15:29','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=8332',0,'revision','',0);
