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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (16778,2,'2023-02-14 13:44:30','2023-02-14 19:44:30','<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:uagb/call-to-action {\"classMigrate\":true,\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"titleColor\":\"#008585\",\"descColor\":\"\",\"descSpace\":20,\"block_id\":\"999c02e5\",\"buttonAlign\":\"\",\"ctaIcon\":\"calendar-days\",\"ctaIconPosition\":\"before\",\"ctaText\":\"Economic Trends\",\"contentWidth\":60,\"ctaBtnLinkColor\":\"\",\"stack\":\"desktop\",\"ctaTopPadding\":10,\"ctaBottomPadding\":10,\"ctaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaTopPadding\":10,\"secondCtaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaBottomPadding\":10,\"secondCtaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaBorderWidth\":\"\",\"ctaBorderRadius\":\"\",\"ctaBorderColor\":\"\",\"ctaBorderStyle\":\"\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderTopLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderTopRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-call-to-action uagb-block-999c02e5 wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-cta__wrap\"><h3 class=\"uagb-cta__title\">New to InvesTech Research - <em>Economic Trends</em></h3><p class=\"uagb-cta__desc\">Stay up to date with the latest economic trends! This new feature tracks important indicators you should be watching. Economic Trends are available from our menu or the button here.<br><br><strong>This new service is FREE, so you are welcome to share with friends and family!</strong></p></div><div class=\"uagb-cta__buttons\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"uagb-cta__button-link-wrapper wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M160 32V64H288V32C288 14.33 302.3 0 320 0C337.7 0 352 14.33 352 32V64H400C426.5 64 448 85.49 448 112V160H0V112C0 85.49 21.49 64 48 64H96V32C96 14.33 110.3 0 128 0C145.7 0 160 14.33 160 32zM0 192H448V464C448 490.5 426.5 512 400 512H48C21.49 512 0 490.5 0 464V192zM64 304C64 312.8 71.16 320 80 320H112C120.8 320 128 312.8 128 304V272C128 263.2 120.8 256 112 256H80C71.16 256 64 263.2 64 272V304zM192 304C192 312.8 199.2 320 208 320H240C248.8 320 256 312.8 256 304V272C256 263.2 248.8 256 240 256H208C199.2 256 192 263.2 192 272V304zM336 256C327.2 256 320 263.2 320 272V304C320 312.8 327.2 320 336 320H368C376.8 320 384 312.8 384 304V272C384 263.2 376.8 256 368 256H336zM64 432C64 440.8 71.16 448 80 448H112C120.8 448 128 440.8 128 432V400C128 391.2 120.8 384 112 384H80C71.16 384 64 391.2 64 400V432zM208 384C199.2 384 192 391.2 192 400V432C192 440.8 199.2 448 208 448H240C248.8 448 256 440.8 256 432V400C256 391.2 248.8 384 240 384H208zM320 432C320 440.8 327.2 448 336 448H368C376.8 448 384 440.8 384 432V400C384 391.2 376.8 384 368 384H336C327.2 384 320 391.2 320 400V432z\"></path></svg>Economic Trends</a></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/call-to-action --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":14420,\"width\":268,\"height\":80,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BARRONS-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14420\" width=\"268\" height=\"80\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3,\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h3 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\">Read what InvesTech &amp; Jim Stack were saying BEFORE the market peaked and started falling…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>“Preparing for a Bear Market”</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dec. 17, 2021 –&nbsp;<em>Barron’s&nbsp;</em>interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today’s high-risk market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>full article</strong></a>&nbsp;to see what steps investors should be taking to navigate this market safely.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":14855,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/v22i02thumb/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":26} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 26%\"><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"med-grey\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-med-grey-color has-text-color\">Don’t miss this essential issue as the Fed heads toward a monetary showdown…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><em>On Collision Course with a Bear Market</em></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Before volatility returned with a vengeance, InvesTech published its February issue, where we laid out the path of a (probable) bear market. With warning flags dropping into place, lofty levels of speculation and overvaluation, and increasingly entrenched inflation pressures, this has begun to resemble one of the most significant bull market tops in history. Download this <em>free </em>issue to learn how ultra-accommodative monetary policies from the Fed have led to a speculative frenzy, the similarities of this market to the unwinding of the Tech Bubble, the potential downside risk ahead, and how to safely navigate this dangerous environment.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/marketing-button {\"block_id\":\"eebf05c8\",\"classMigrate\":true,\"link\":\"/free-important-issue/\",\"linkTarget\":true,\"backgroundColor\":\"#a60d0d\",\"backgroundHoverColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"titleColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"titleHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"iconColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"iconHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"prefixColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"prefixHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\",\"className\":\"uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-marketing-button uagb-marketing-btn__align-center uagb-marketing-btn__align-text-center uagb-marketing-btn__icon-after uagb-block-eebf05c8 wp-block-button uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"><a href=\"/free-important-issue/\" class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__link wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__title\">Free Important Issue</span><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M384 320c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v96H64V160h96c17.67 0 32-14.32 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32L64 96c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64V448c0 35.34 28.65 64 64 64h288c35.35 0 64-28.66 64-64v-96C416 334.3 401.7 320 384 320zM488 0H352c-12.94 0-24.62 7.797-29.56 19.75c-4.969 11.97-2.219 25.72 6.938 34.88L370.8 96L169.4 297.4c-12.5 12.5-12.5 32.75 0 45.25C175.6 348.9 183.8 352 192 352s16.38-3.125 22.62-9.375L416 141.3l41.38 41.38c9.156 9.141 22.88 11.84 34.88 6.938C504.2 184.6 512 172.9 512 160V24C512 10.74 501.3 0 488 0z\"></path></svg><p class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__prefix\">Get access to this valuable issue immediately!</p></a></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/marketing-button --></div><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/V22I02thumb-768x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14855 size-full\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Why-Subscribe\">Why Subscribe to InvesTech Research?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research is governed by a “Safety-First” investment strategy which is committed to helping you preserve capital and identify tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>We have a proven track record.</strong> For 40 years, we have successfully navigated volatile markets with our “Safety-First” strategy, providing valuable insights to our subscribers.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Over 120 years of data inform our publications.</strong> InvesTech has developed one of the largest private databases in the industry including technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data. Through this wealth of market information, we\'re able to spot trends and detect patterns that most other research firms miss.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Time-proven proprietary indicators and tools.</strong> We are unique in our ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>InvesTech provides 100% independent, objective analysis.</strong> We sell no investment products. We provide fiercely independent research that you will not get from brokers, mutual fund advisors, and even many investment newsletters.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item --></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/free-sample/\">Request Free Sample</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"className\":\"redBtn\",\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons redBtn\"><!-- wp:button /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Subscriber-Services\">As a Subscriber, You Will Receive:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4934,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/pub-icon.svg\" alt=\"Publications\" class=\"wp-image-4934\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"publications\">InvesTech Issues </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The <strong><em>monthly</em></strong> <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter contains both monetary and technical analysis and unique research.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5759,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/knight.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5759\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"investech-indicators\">InvesTech Indicators</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Follow InvesTech\'s proprietary technical indicators <strong><em>daily </em></strong>to watch for important breakouts or warning flags.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":7871,\"width\":90,\"height\":90,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/compass-328cc1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7871\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em> </em></strong>up with <strong><em>weekly </em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5490,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutual-fund-port.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5490\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"model-fund-portfolio\">Model Fund Portfolio</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>View the <strong><em>current </em></strong>investment allocation in our Model ETF portfolio and access the latest trades as they happen.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4931,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/fin-data-icon.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4931\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"daily-data\">Daily Data</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>Daily </em></strong>access to a wide range of stock market metrics, including market indexes, breadth/volume data, and short-term indicators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5760,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/library-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5760\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"subscriber-library\">Subscriber Library</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Explore our library of Special Reports and past issues on important topics of a timeless and historically significant nature.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/\">Become a Subscriber</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\">InvesTech\'s 42-year Track Record Speaks for Itself!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is frequently quoted in the news.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/example-1/\">Read more...</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/testimonial {\"test_item_count\":9,\"classMigrate\":true,\"test_block\":[{\"description\":\"\\u003cem\\u003eMar. 13, 2009\\u003c/em\\u003e - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \\u0022heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the \\u003cbr\\u003ebear market bottom!\",\"name\":\"A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime\",\"company\":\"InvesTech 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InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \"heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the <br>bear market bottom!</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001</em> - \"In all probability, it is a new bull market.\"  InvesTech\'s growing confidence in the market also may stem from its past successes in calling critical turns.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Former bear warming to bullish possibilities</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch-300x150.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Sept. 6, 2007</em>  - ‘Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die from deterioration and economic imbalances, and we are seeing economic imbalances now.’”</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Newsletter editor gets defensive</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">MarketWatch</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>July 27, 2007</em> - InvesTech was one of the first to call the devastating bear market in <br>2007-2009.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Bear Market Warning Flags!</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001 </em>- Jim Stack was a bear on the stock market—an angry, snarling bear—Today, he is rightly considered a hero for warning subscribers... away from stocks as they climbed toward their peaks and then careened into the worst decline in a generation.  </div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Easy to understand technical analysis.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbr-300x102.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 1, 2002</em> - Paul Kangas:</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Jim Stack of InvesTech was the only panelist to correctly predict both a recession and bear market in 2001.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Nightly Business Report</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/dallas-1-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Aug. 19, 2001</em> - Mr. Stack has often been the lonely voice.  More significantly, he\'s often been right.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">From Afar, An Analyst Gets It Right</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Bill Deener, Staff Writer</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/washington-1-300x104.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Oct. 22, 1987</em> - The last stock in [InvesTech\'s] model portfolio was sold October 16, three days before the crash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Only five newsletters predicted plunge</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">The Washington Post</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 4, 1988</em> - InvesTech foresaw the stock market crash of Oct. 19. On Sept. 30, the <em>InvesTech </em>newsletter told stock investors to move to 94% cash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Expert Advice On Investing</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Dennis Cauchon, USA Today</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/testimonial -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"><!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5104,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/award-cup.svg\" alt=\"A magnificent trophy\" class=\"wp-image-5104\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"45%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:45%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\" id=\"kiplinger\"><strong>Kiplinger</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"rated-best-source-of-investment-advice-by-kiplinger-personal-finance-magazine\">Rated Best Source of Investment Advice by Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"red-caps\"} -->\n<p class=\"red-caps\"><strong>Best Stock Market Letter</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"em-red\"} -->\n<p class=\"em-red\">InvesTech Research, which promises ‘safety-first profits,’ has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations. <em>– Kiplinger Personal Finance</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"15%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"investech-research-is-frequently-quoted-in-the-following\">InvesTech Research is Frequently Quoted in the Following:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"linkTo\":\"none\",\"className\":\"multiply\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped multiply\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":15982,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/forbes-1-1024x513.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15982\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":15981,\"width\":846,\"height\":423,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NYT-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15981\" width=\"846\" height=\"423\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit our <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/in-the-news/\">In The News</a> to read more.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong>up with&nbsp;<strong><em>weekly&nbsp;</em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\"name\":\"acf/subscriber-content-teaser\",\"data\":{\"post_to_show\":[\"9498\",\"9722\",\"8813\"],\"_post_to_show\":\"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\"post_type_to_show\":\"investech-library\",\"_post_type_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\"number_to_show\":\"3\",\"_number_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"},\"mode\":\"edit\"} /-->','Home Page - Logged Out','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2023-02-14 13:44:30','2023-02-14 19:44:30','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=16778',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (16776,2,'2023-02-14 13:44:01','2023-02-14 19:44:01','<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:uagb/call-to-action {\"classMigrate\":true,\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"titleColor\":\"#008585\",\"descColor\":\"\",\"descSpace\":20,\"block_id\":\"999c02e5\",\"buttonAlign\":\"\",\"ctaIcon\":\"calendar-days\",\"ctaIconPosition\":\"before\",\"ctaText\":\"Economic Trends\",\"contentWidth\":60,\"ctaBtnLinkColor\":\"\",\"stack\":\"desktop\",\"ctaTopPadding\":10,\"ctaBottomPadding\":10,\"ctaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaTopPadding\":10,\"secondCtaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaBottomPadding\":10,\"secondCtaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaBorderWidth\":\"\",\"ctaBorderRadius\":\"\",\"ctaBorderColor\":\"\",\"ctaBorderStyle\":\"\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderTopLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderTopRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-call-to-action uagb-block-999c02e5 wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-cta__wrap\"><h3 class=\"uagb-cta__title\">New to InvesTech Research - <em>Economic Trends</em></h3><p class=\"uagb-cta__desc\">Stay up to date with the latest economic trends! This new feature tracks important indicators you should be watching. Economic Trends are available from our Menu or the button here.<br><br><strong>This new service is FREE, so you are welcome to share with friends and family!</strong></p></div><div class=\"uagb-cta__buttons\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"uagb-cta__button-link-wrapper wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M160 32V64H288V32C288 14.33 302.3 0 320 0C337.7 0 352 14.33 352 32V64H400C426.5 64 448 85.49 448 112V160H0V112C0 85.49 21.49 64 48 64H96V32C96 14.33 110.3 0 128 0C145.7 0 160 14.33 160 32zM0 192H448V464C448 490.5 426.5 512 400 512H48C21.49 512 0 490.5 0 464V192zM64 304C64 312.8 71.16 320 80 320H112C120.8 320 128 312.8 128 304V272C128 263.2 120.8 256 112 256H80C71.16 256 64 263.2 64 272V304zM192 304C192 312.8 199.2 320 208 320H240C248.8 320 256 312.8 256 304V272C256 263.2 248.8 256 240 256H208C199.2 256 192 263.2 192 272V304zM336 256C327.2 256 320 263.2 320 272V304C320 312.8 327.2 320 336 320H368C376.8 320 384 312.8 384 304V272C384 263.2 376.8 256 368 256H336zM64 432C64 440.8 71.16 448 80 448H112C120.8 448 128 440.8 128 432V400C128 391.2 120.8 384 112 384H80C71.16 384 64 391.2 64 400V432zM208 384C199.2 384 192 391.2 192 400V432C192 440.8 199.2 448 208 448H240C248.8 448 256 440.8 256 432V400C256 391.2 248.8 384 240 384H208zM320 432C320 440.8 327.2 448 336 448H368C376.8 448 384 440.8 384 432V400C384 391.2 376.8 384 368 384H336C327.2 384 320 391.2 320 400V432z\"></path></svg>Economic Trends</a></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/call-to-action --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"25px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":14420,\"width\":268,\"height\":80,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BARRONS-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14420\" width=\"268\" height=\"80\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3,\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h3 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\">Read what InvesTech &amp; Jim Stack were saying BEFORE the market peaked and started falling…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>“Preparing for a Bear Market”</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dec. 17, 2021 –&nbsp;<em>Barron’s&nbsp;</em>interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today’s high-risk market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>full article</strong></a>&nbsp;to see what steps investors should be taking to navigate this market safely.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":14855,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/v22i02thumb/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":26} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 26%\"><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"med-grey\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-med-grey-color has-text-color\">Don’t miss this essential issue as the Fed heads toward a monetary showdown…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><em>On Collision Course with a Bear Market</em></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Before volatility returned with a vengeance, InvesTech published its February issue, where we laid out the path of a (probable) bear market. With warning flags dropping into place, lofty levels of speculation and overvaluation, and increasingly entrenched inflation pressures, this has begun to resemble one of the most significant bull market tops in history. Download this <em>free </em>issue to learn how ultra-accommodative monetary policies from the Fed have led to a speculative frenzy, the similarities of this market to the unwinding of the Tech Bubble, the potential downside risk ahead, and how to safely navigate this dangerous environment.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/marketing-button {\"block_id\":\"eebf05c8\",\"classMigrate\":true,\"link\":\"/free-important-issue/\",\"linkTarget\":true,\"backgroundColor\":\"#a60d0d\",\"backgroundHoverColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"titleColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"titleHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"iconColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"iconHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"prefixColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"prefixHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\",\"className\":\"uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-marketing-button uagb-marketing-btn__align-center uagb-marketing-btn__align-text-center uagb-marketing-btn__icon-after uagb-block-eebf05c8 wp-block-button uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"><a href=\"/free-important-issue/\" class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__link wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__title\">Free Important Issue</span><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M384 320c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v96H64V160h96c17.67 0 32-14.32 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32L64 96c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64V448c0 35.34 28.65 64 64 64h288c35.35 0 64-28.66 64-64v-96C416 334.3 401.7 320 384 320zM488 0H352c-12.94 0-24.62 7.797-29.56 19.75c-4.969 11.97-2.219 25.72 6.938 34.88L370.8 96L169.4 297.4c-12.5 12.5-12.5 32.75 0 45.25C175.6 348.9 183.8 352 192 352s16.38-3.125 22.62-9.375L416 141.3l41.38 41.38c9.156 9.141 22.88 11.84 34.88 6.938C504.2 184.6 512 172.9 512 160V24C512 10.74 501.3 0 488 0z\"></path></svg><p class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__prefix\">Get access to this valuable issue immediately!</p></a></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/marketing-button --></div><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/V22I02thumb-768x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14855 size-full\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Why-Subscribe\">Why Subscribe to InvesTech Research?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research is governed by a “Safety-First” investment strategy which is committed to helping you preserve capital and identify tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>We have a proven track record.</strong> For 40 years, we have successfully navigated volatile markets with our “Safety-First” strategy, providing valuable insights to our subscribers.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Over 120 years of data inform our publications.</strong> InvesTech has developed one of the largest private databases in the industry including technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data. Through this wealth of market information, we\'re able to spot trends and detect patterns that most other research firms miss.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Time-proven proprietary indicators and tools.</strong> We are unique in our ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>InvesTech provides 100% independent, objective analysis.</strong> We sell no investment products. 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class=\"wp-image-5760\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"subscriber-library\">Subscriber Library</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Explore our library of Special Reports and past issues on important topics of a timeless and historically significant nature.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/\">Become a Subscriber</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\">InvesTech\'s 42-year Track Record Speaks for Itself!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is frequently quoted in the news.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/example-1/\">Read more...</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/testimonial {\"test_item_count\":9,\"classMigrate\":true,\"test_block\":[{\"description\":\"\\u003cem\\u003eMar. 13, 2009\\u003c/em\\u003e - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \\u0022heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the \\u003cbr\\u003ebear market bottom!\",\"name\":\"A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime\",\"company\":\"InvesTech 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InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \"heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the <br>bear market bottom!</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001</em> - \"In all probability, it is a new bull market.\"  InvesTech\'s growing confidence in the market also may stem from its past successes in calling critical turns.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Former bear warming to bullish possibilities</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch-300x150.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Sept. 6, 2007</em>  - ‘Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die from deterioration and economic imbalances, and we are seeing economic imbalances now.’”</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Newsletter editor gets defensive</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">MarketWatch</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>July 27, 2007</em> - InvesTech was one of the first to call the devastating bear market in <br>2007-2009.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Bear Market Warning Flags!</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001 </em>- Jim Stack was a bear on the stock market—an angry, snarling bear—Today, he is rightly considered a hero for warning subscribers... away from stocks as they climbed toward their peaks and then careened into the worst decline in a generation.  </div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Easy to understand technical analysis.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbr-300x102.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 1, 2002</em> - Paul Kangas:</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Jim Stack of InvesTech was the only panelist to correctly predict both a recession and bear market in 2001.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Nightly Business Report</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/dallas-1-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Aug. 19, 2001</em> - Mr. Stack has often been the lonely voice.  More significantly, he\'s often been right.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">From Afar, An Analyst Gets It Right</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Bill Deener, Staff Writer</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/washington-1-300x104.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Oct. 22, 1987</em> - The last stock in [InvesTech\'s] model portfolio was sold October 16, three days before the crash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Only five newsletters predicted plunge</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">The Washington Post</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 4, 1988</em> - InvesTech foresaw the stock market crash of Oct. 19. On Sept. 30, the <em>InvesTech </em>newsletter told stock investors to move to 94% cash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Expert Advice On Investing</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Dennis Cauchon, USA Today</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/testimonial -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"><!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5104,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/award-cup.svg\" alt=\"A magnificent trophy\" class=\"wp-image-5104\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"45%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:45%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\" id=\"kiplinger\"><strong>Kiplinger</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"rated-best-source-of-investment-advice-by-kiplinger-personal-finance-magazine\">Rated Best Source of Investment Advice by Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"red-caps\"} -->\n<p class=\"red-caps\"><strong>Best Stock Market Letter</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"em-red\"} -->\n<p class=\"em-red\">InvesTech Research, which promises ‘safety-first profits,’ has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations. <em>– Kiplinger Personal Finance</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"15%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"investech-research-is-frequently-quoted-in-the-following\">InvesTech Research is Frequently Quoted in the Following:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"linkTo\":\"none\",\"className\":\"multiply\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped multiply\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":15982,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/forbes-1-1024x513.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15982\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":15981,\"width\":846,\"height\":423,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NYT-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15981\" width=\"846\" height=\"423\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit our <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/in-the-news/\">In The News</a> to read more.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong>up with&nbsp;<strong><em>weekly&nbsp;</em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\"name\":\"acf/subscriber-content-teaser\",\"data\":{\"post_to_show\":[\"9498\",\"9722\",\"8813\"],\"_post_to_show\":\"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\"post_type_to_show\":\"investech-library\",\"_post_type_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\"number_to_show\":\"3\",\"_number_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"},\"mode\":\"edit\"} /-->','Home Page - Logged Out','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2023-02-14 13:44:01','2023-02-14 19:44:01','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=16776',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5353,3,'2021-02-01 23:35:44','2021-02-01 23:35:44','','coppock-table','','inherit','open','closed','','coppock-table','','','2021-02-01 23:35:44','2021-02-01 23:35:44','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5354,3,'2021-02-01 23:36:22','2021-02-01 23:36:22','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with<br>the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting<br>bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has<br>been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:36:22','2021-02-01 23:36:22','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5357,3,'2021-02-01 23:38:49','2021-02-01 23:38:49','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with<br>the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting<br>bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has<br>been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:38:49','2021-02-01 23:38:49','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5359,3,'2021-02-01 23:40:49','2021-02-01 23:40:49','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:40:49','2021-02-01 23:40:49','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5361,3,'2021-02-01 23:44:02','2021-02-01 23:44:02','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:44:02','2021-02-01 23:44:02','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5363,3,'2021-02-01 23:45:27','2021-02-01 23:45:27','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:45:27','2021-02-01 23:45:27','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5364,3,'2021-02-01 23:46:29','2021-02-01 23:46:29','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding<br>the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:46:29','2021-02-01 23:46:29','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5365,3,'2021-02-01 23:47:08','2021-02-01 23:47:08','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:47:08','2021-02-01 23:47:08','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5366,3,'2021-02-01 23:47:33','2021-02-01 23:47:33','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:47:33','2021-02-01 23:47:33','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5368,3,'2021-02-01 23:47:54','2021-02-01 23:47:54','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is<br>the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock<br>Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most<br>devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important,<br>lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying<br>opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and<br>then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:47:54','2021-02-01 23:47:54','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5370,3,'2021-02-01 23:49:35','2021-02-01 23:49:35','<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>This little-known indicator has a remarkable 93-year track record of<br>signaling the best, low-risk buying opportunities in the stock market.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Edwin S. Coppock</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide or Curve was originally developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. It’s been described as a “barometer of the market’s emotional state,” methodically tracking the ebb and flow of equity markets from one extreme to another. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In simpler terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of this, it reverses direction when the momentum or rate of change in the market reaches a peak or a trough.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>The historical value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low-risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on graph below). And since market bottoms are usually sudden or “spiked” reversals, the Coppock Guide works amazingly well – as it did immediately after the bottom in 2009.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Once the Coppock Guide drops to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. The only four false signals under this guideline were in 1938, 1941, 1947 and November 2001.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5352,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5352\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>However, the Coppock Guide has never been noted for timely sell signals. The reason is that market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum (and the Coppock) peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. <em>Except, that is, in a few cases…</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Double-Tops</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. <strong>When a double-top occurs without the Coppock falling to ‘0’, it identifies a bull market where corrections haven’t driven out nervous investors or cleansed excesses from the market. </strong>When those psychological excesses are not washed out, the nervousness can continue to build and extremes can multiply… with the result that the next downturn can become severe as everyone heads for the exits.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5353,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock-table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5353\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So there is a critical historical aspect to double-tops: They can result in nasty bears! Double-tops have occurred only 7 times in 93 years – with 5 of them accompanying the start of the most notorious bear markets of the 20th century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000 and 2007.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The table at right shows the month of the second peak, along with the start of the S&amp;P 500 bear market. And a glance at those resulting bear markets reveals why the double-top in the Coppock Guide has been nicknamed a “Killer Wave.” The average decline (excluding the -86% loss in 1929) was almost -42%!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In summary, there are two critical lessons in this model. First is the inherent danger that accompanies a double-top in the Coppock Guide. Such a formation often precedes the biggest and most devastating bear markets. The second, and perhaps most important, lesson is the knowledge that the safest and most profitable buying opportunities appear after this Guide declines to (or below) ‘0’ and then turns upward.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>With its remarkable track record, the Coppock Guide should be a key tool in any investment strategy. When used with our other indicators, it can provide the discipline and patience to avoid treacherous bear market rallies and wait for the best buying opportunities that occur only a couple times each decade.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This special report is also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppock.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Coppock Guide - Double Tops','','inherit','closed','closed','','2476-revision-v1','','','2021-02-01 23:49:35','2021-02-01 23:49:35','',2476,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5373,3,'2021-02-02 00:00:51','2021-02-02 00:00:51','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%. In this issue, we provide the historical answers to these questions... more.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:00:51','2021-02-02 00:00:51','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5375,3,'2021-02-02 00:06:54','2021-02-02 00:06:54','','bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','bull','','','2021-02-02 00:06:54','2021-02-02 00:06:54','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/bull.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5376,3,'2021-02-02 00:07:27','2021-02-02 00:07:27','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%. In this issue, we provide the historical answers to these questions... more.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:07:27','2021-02-02 00:07:27','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5378,3,'2021-02-02 00:12:19','2021-02-02 00:12:19','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question<br>– which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be<br>the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:12:19','2021-02-02 00:12:19','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5380,3,'2021-02-02 00:15:19','2021-02-02 00:15:19','','V09I05pg2','','inherit','open','closed','','v09i05pg2','','','2021-02-02 00:15:19','2021-02-02 00:15:19','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5381,3,'2021-02-02 00:15:49','2021-02-02 00:15:49','','V09I05pg2table','','inherit','open','closed','','v09i05pg2table','','','2021-02-02 00:15:49','2021-02-02 00:15:49','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5382,3,'2021-02-02 00:15:57','2021-02-02 00:15:57','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question<br>– which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be<br>the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:15:57','2021-02-02 00:15:57','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5383,3,'2021-02-02 00:16:30','2021-02-02 00:16:30','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question<br>– which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:16:30','2021-02-02 00:16:30','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5384,3,'2021-02-02 00:16:46','2021-02-02 00:16:46','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-02 00:16:46','2021-02-02 00:16:46','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5397,3,'2021-02-04 22:56:24','2021-02-04 22:56:24','','usnews','','inherit','open','closed','','usnews','','','2021-02-04 22:56:24','2021-02-04 22:56:24','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5398,3,'2021-02-04 22:57:04','2021-02-04 22:57:04','','fortune','','inherit','open','closed','','fortune','','','2021-02-04 22:57:04','2021-02-04 22:57:04','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5399,3,'2021-02-04 22:57:35','2021-02-04 22:57:35','','businessweek','','inherit','open','closed','','businessweek','','','2021-02-04 22:57:35','2021-02-04 22:57:35','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5400,3,'2021-02-04 22:57:59','2021-02-04 22:57:59','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and<br>there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 22:57:59','2021-02-04 22:57:59','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5401,3,'2021-02-04 23:01:24','2021-02-04 23:01:24','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and<br>there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:01:24','2021-02-04 23:01:24','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5403,3,'2021-02-04 23:11:08','2021-02-04 23:11:08','','top-20','','inherit','open','closed','','top-20','','','2021-02-04 23:11:08','2021-02-04 23:11:08','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5404,3,'2021-02-04 23:12:20','2021-02-04 23:12:20','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and<br>there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold<br>(752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned<br>into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>STRATEGY:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:12:20','2021-02-04 23:12:20','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5406,3,'2021-02-04 23:16:09','2021-02-04 23:16:09','','mutualfundperf','','inherit','open','closed','','mutualfundperf','','','2021-02-04 23:16:09','2021-02-04 23:16:09','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5407,3,'2021-02-04 23:16:25','2021-02-04 23:16:25','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold<br>(752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned<br>into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>STRATEGY:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:16:25','2021-02-04 23:16:25','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5408,3,'2021-02-04 23:19:04','2021-02-04 23:19:04','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold<br>(752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned<br>into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>STRATEGY:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:19:04','2021-02-04 23:19:04','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5410,3,'2021-02-04 23:25:34','2021-02-04 23:25:34','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned<br>into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:25:34','2021-02-04 23:25:34','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5411,3,'2021-02-04 23:26:19','2021-02-04 23:26:19','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned<br>into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:26:19','2021-02-04 23:26:19','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5412,3,'2021-02-04 23:26:54','2021-02-04 23:26:54','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:26:54','2021-02-04 23:26:54','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5413,3,'2021-02-04 23:27:15','2021-02-04 23:27:15','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:27:15','2021-02-04 23:27:15','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5414,3,'2021-02-04 23:30:50','2021-02-04 23:30:50','<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:30:50','2021-02-04 23:30:50','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5415,3,'2021-02-04 23:31:20','2021-02-04 23:31:20','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:31:20','2021-02-04 23:31:20','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5416,3,'2021-02-04 23:31:56','2021-02-04 23:31:56','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:31:56','2021-02-04 23:31:56','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5417,3,'2021-02-04 23:33:56','2021-02-04 23:33:56','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Indexing Craze</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5398,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/fortune.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5398\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The indexing craze… it’s sure to be remembered as a hallmark of the 1990s! What has made investing in the S&amp;P 500 so popular these days? If you buy into a recent Business Week article, “Index funds are cheap, easy–and they’re changing the way Americans invest.” A value investor might disagree, since index funds are holding a group of stocks which are at their most overvalued levels in history.  However, in a sense, they are “cheap”… you don’t have to pay a fund manager to search for attractive stocks, and there are few transaction fees when the portfolio doesn’t change much from year to year. As for “easy,” that’s a different story. Our October 23, 1998 issue of the InvesTech Mutual Fund Advisor devoted considerable space to dispelling some of the myths of easy profits and safety that enthusiasts claim for these funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5399,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/businessweek.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5399\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The popularity of investing in a large-cap index is a phenomenon of long-running bull markets, especially in the latter stages like today. There are several reasons for this. After years of positive gains in the stock market, new investors latch on to the implied idea that making money is simple. It’s also assumed that index funds are safer than other mutual funds because many S&amp;P 500 stocks have widely recognized names. And finally, index funds are the obvious choice for novice investors who tend to be drawn in during late stage bull markets. [Just try to talk a non-investor into putting money into the stock market in the depths of a recession when bull markets are typically born!] During the longest running bull markets, like today, index funds appear attractive even to more experienced investors, simply because that’s when they outperform other funds.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5397,\"width\":564,\"height\":269,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/usnews.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5397\" width=\"564\" height=\"269\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They may be at the height of popularity now, but index funds aren’t just a phenomenon of the 1990’s. If you were investing in 1975 you would have seen this announcement in U.S. News &amp; World Report:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Index funds were a hot new concept in 1975, just in time to dramatically UNDERperform the majority of stocks. Over the next seven years, the smallest 20% of NYSE issues outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by more than 5-fold (752% versus 150%). After this less-than-spectacular start, the popularity of index funds came and went with the market cycles for the next decade. They really started to proliferate only when the current bull market turned into a large-cap bonanza beginning in 1994.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Last year, index funds attracted nearly 19% of all money invested in mutual funds. And Vanguard Index 500 with $74 billion is close to passing #1 Fidelity Magellan in net assets. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, as the<br>majority of mutual funds are now investing in the “big 50 ” –the 50 largest-cap stocks in the S&amp;P 500– simply to keep pace with that index’s momentum. This flow of money into a handful of large stocks affects not only the market averages, but it can have long-term repercussions for the<br>market as well as your future investment strategy.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>The Impact</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here’s the current, and potential, impact as we see it…<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investor psychology is distorted. Many novices view index funds as a type of variable rate CD. In Canada, one of our readers reports roadside billboards are promoting a guaranteed principle type of market index investment over GICs (the Canadian equivalent of a CD). What happens when index funds fail to return that expected 11%, or worse, when a major bear market wipes out 40-50%. Someone’s going to be left holding the bag.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5403,\"width\":374,\"height\":611,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/top-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5403\" width=\"374\" height=\"611\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>More and more “non-index” funds are actually indexing a large part of their portfolios. As index funds have been the only ones to keep pace with market averages in recent years, the natural reaction is for fund managers to change strategy. The philosophy seems to be, “If I can’t outperform the market, at least try to imitate it.” The result is an increasing number of equity funds that look like mini-index fund clones as managers are dragged into the same stocks. Any fund wanting to match or beat the averages must hold at least some of the “big 50 ” of the S&amp;P 500. To make this point, we looked at the portfolios of the ten top performing “non-index” growth funds for the past 12 months. On  Average, 5 of the top 10 holdings in each portfolio are among the 20 largest stocks in the S&amp;P.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>As an example, take the Fidelity Dividend Growth fund which, by its very name, seems to imply conservative growth with a focus on dividends. But there’s nothing conservative about an annual portfolio turnover rate exceeding 105% for each of the last 5 years. And its dividend yield is only 0.4% – less than one-third the dismal yield of the S&amp;P 500.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Investments in momentum related funds are funneling into the most overvalued stocks in the market, driving them even higher. Remember, the S&amp;P 500 is a capitalization weighted index, so money going into index funds is not evenly distributed in all 500 stocks. Only fifty stocks account for 55% of S&amp;P 500 capitalization and 55% of an index fund portfolio. That leaves the other 450 stocks to split the rest. Indexing contributes to explosive run-up and overvaluation in these top 50 stocks. Microsoft today is valued at 1.4 times the total capitalization of GE, Intel, Merck, Wal-Mart, Pfizer, Exxon, Coca-Cola, IBM, Cisco, AND Microsoft in December of 1990 at the start of this bull market. And America Online, which has yet to show any significant earnings, is now valued at more than ANY of the ten largest companies in the U.S. in 1990!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Market volatility increases whenever interest narrows to just a few stocks. All eyes are on the same select group (the largest companies in the S&amp;P 500). Any news or earnings surprises can cause wild gyrations in price as funds scramble to dump or pile into hot movers. No wonder the intraday volatility in 1999 is running the highest for any bull market year since 1929!</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Finally, indexing amplifies the technical distortion in the markets. The current issue of the InvesTech Market Analyst takes an insightful look at what’s really happening in breadth and other technical divergences. With support from the “big-50\" stocks of the S&amp;P, the closely watched indexes like the DJIA and NASDAQ simply don’t reflect these divergences. For a broader view of the market, take a close look at the Russell 2000 Index (premier small cap index) or the Value-Line Composite Index (an equally weighted index of 1700 stocks).</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>STRATEGY:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, we advise that you examine the individual stock holdings in any mutual fund you own – especially for any funds that have “performed” well over the last couple years. Ask yourself, “How ‘indexed’ is this fund?” We’ve listed the 20 largestcap stocks of the S&amp;P 500 in the table shown here. If you find more than 3 or 4 of these stocks in the top 20 portfolio holdings of your fund, then take heed – your fund is nibbling on indexing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, avoid judging a future fund by its 1997-98 performance. If a fund was near the top of the performance list for these past two years, chances are it was momentum investing. Blue chip stocks are often the last to peak in a long-running bull market, benefitting from a “flight to safety” as other stocks falter. Unfortunately, when they fall from overvalued heights, they can be the last to recover from a recession.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5406,\"width\":514,\"height\":530,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutualfundperf.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5406\" width=\"514\" height=\"530\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This past bull market illustrates our point. Index funds have enjoyed the run up in blue chip stocks, handily beating most actively managed funds over the last few years. Since 1994, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has more than doubled the total return of the average small stock fund, and provided 1.6 times the return of the average value fund. This performance may seem unbeatable, but it’s only part of the story. This graph 1 reveals the comparative performance of the Vanguard 500 during the first three years of this bull market… the safest years to be invested. Note that the average “value” fund outperformed by a factor of 1.4…and the average small company fund literally doubled the return of the Vanguard 500 Index fund. From the perspective of risk management now (and future profits later), it’s never been more critical to know your mutual fund or prospective mutual fund. We firmly believe the big-cap leaders of today will again become the laggards after the next bear market washout. If that is the case, then you don’t want to find your portfolio indexed to under-performance at what may become one of the best buying opportunities of our lifetime.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":46} -->\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/InvesTech-V99I04-Indexing.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Lemming Principle','Just as relevant today as in the Tech Bubble of the 1990s, this issue (originally published in March 1999) is particularly enlightening in view of today\'s infatuation with passive and index investing. Instead of falling off a cliff, these lemmings fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s!','inherit','closed','closed','','2470-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:33:56','2021-02-04 23:33:56','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2470-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5420,3,'2021-02-04 23:43:43','2021-02-04 23:43:43','','nlcV09I05','','inherit','open','closed','','nlcv09i05','','','2021-02-04 23:43:43','2021-02-04 23:43:43','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5421,3,'2021-02-04 23:45:13','2021-02-04 23:45:13','','advdecv09i05','','inherit','open','closed','','advdecv09i05','','','2021-02-04 23:45:13','2021-02-04 23:45:13','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5422,3,'2021-02-04 23:46:05','2021-02-04 23:46:05','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:46:05','2021-02-04 23:46:05','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5424,3,'2021-02-04 23:47:27','2021-02-04 23:47:27','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>NLC: Now Bullish</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:47:27','2021-02-04 23:47:27','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5426,3,'2021-02-04 23:50:29','2021-02-04 23:50:29','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>NLC: Now Bullish</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:50:29','2021-02-04 23:50:29','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5430,3,'2021-02-04 23:56:08','2021-02-04 23:56:08','<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>NLC: Now Bullish</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>Consumer Confidence:</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":4} -->\n<h4>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h4>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-04 23:56:08','2021-02-04 23:56:08','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5434,3,'2021-02-05 00:01:47','2021-02-05 00:01:47','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 00:01:47','2021-02-05 00:01:47','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5435,3,'2021-02-05 00:02:16','2021-02-05 00:02:16','','nahbv09i05','','inherit','open','closed','','nahbv09i05','','','2021-02-05 00:02:16','2021-02-05 00:02:16','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5436,3,'2021-02-05 00:02:23','2021-02-05 00:02:23','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 00:02:23','2021-02-05 00:02:23','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5438,3,'2021-02-05 18:58:32','2021-02-05 18:58:32','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 18:58:32','2021-02-05 18:58:32','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
