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INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5442,3,'2021-02-05 19:07:30','2021-02-05 19:07:30','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":481,\"height\":602,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"481\" height=\"602\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":1274,\"width\":256,\"height\":29,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"256\" height=\"29\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:07:30','2021-02-05 19:07:30','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5444,3,'2021-02-05 19:09:43','2021-02-05 19:09:43','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":321,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"321\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":256,\"height\":29,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"256\" height=\"29\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:09:43','2021-02-05 19:09:43','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5445,3,'2021-02-05 19:10:00','2021-02-05 19:10:00','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":321,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"321\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":512,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"512\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:10:00','2021-02-05 19:10:00','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5446,3,'2021-02-05 19:10:19','2021-02-05 19:10:19','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":321,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"321\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:10:19','2021-02-05 19:10:19','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5447,3,'2021-02-05 19:10:41','2021-02-05 19:10:41','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":321,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"321\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:10:41','2021-02-05 19:10:41','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5449,3,'2021-02-05 19:13:40','2021-02-05 19:13:40','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":321,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline line over S&amp;P 500 index\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"321\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"James B Stack signature\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:13:40','2021-02-05 19:13:40','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5450,3,'2021-02-05 19:14:35','2021-02-05 19:14:35','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":375,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline line over S&amp;P 500 index\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"375\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other<br>words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"James B Stack signature\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:14:35','2021-02-05 19:14:35','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5451,3,'2021-02-05 19:15:28','2021-02-05 19:15:28','<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>\"How do I hate thee?  Let me count the ways...\"</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Without a doubt, this is already one of the most hated bull markets in history! Both analysts and the media are finding countless things wrong with the rally, the U.S. economy, and –it seems– the outlook for the entire world:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Global Recession Deepens, Adding to U.S. Woes</p><cite>The Kiplinger Letter – 5/4/09</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From the swine flu outbreak, to soaring bankruptcies and foreclosures, to weak trading volume and ominous selling by corporate insiders, Wall Street investors have no shortage of worries on their minds. So why does the market continue to move relentlessly higher?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Inside this issue, we provide the historical answer to that question – which our more seasoned subscribers know already. Just eight weeks ago, our March 13 issue laid out the technical arguments for an important market bottom…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>…and thus far, the low that week (at DJIA 6547) has proven to be the bear market low.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><br><strong>The ultimate question: What now?</strong></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are we in a new bull market or is it a bear market rally? If it is a new bull market, will it be a cyclical bull that is destined to a short life span or fail to reach old highs? And is it too late to buy, with the market already rebounding over 25%? All of these worries simply add to headlines now weighing on investors’ shoulders.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>So let’s tackle some of these major concerns…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Climbing a Wall of Worry</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Every seasoned investor knows that bull markets climb a proverbial “wall of worry” during their early months of existence. Yet each and every time, it doesn’t get any easier. There is always an emotional tug-of-war between gloomy media headlines, and the slow methodical improvement in the technical outlook…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5380,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2-1024x752.png\" alt=\"DJIA with worrisome media headlines\" class=\"wp-image-5380\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But with all the blocks in place for a potential “best buy” opportunity in stocks [see table below], we need to pay close attention to the technical outlook – which is dramatically changing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5381,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05pg2table.png\" alt=\"Bearish conditions that precede the &quot;best buy&quot; opportunities in stocks\" class=\"wp-image-5381\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>NLC: Now Bullish</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most dramatic technical change since our last issue has been a strong and steady increase in the bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [[1] from our  Negative Leadership Composite. Designed to measure the absence of downside or bear market leadership, this kind of +50 reading is  synonymous with past bull market launching pads (see dashed arrows). Note there have been only 2 false signals (greater than +20) from our NLC Selling Vacuum in the past 42 years – and both occurred at significantly lower levels. We also want to point out that the lingering “DISTRIBUTION” [[2 –lower half] is not a problem from a technical viewpoint. Internal calculations show that bear market Distribution ended on the March 9 low, and has not been “added to” since then. On climactic V-shaped bottoms, it is not unusual to see a lag in this component. For example, at the end of the 1973-74 bear market, there was a 14-week residual lag between the market bottom and when Distribution left its -100 reading. In 1987, there was an 11- week lag. Currently, we’re only 8 weeks past the March 9 bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5420,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nlcV09I05-1024x736.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s negative leadership composite\" class=\"wp-image-5420\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>BREADTH: Positive Divergence</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5421,\"width\":375,\"height\":402,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/advdecv09i05.png\" alt=\"Advance-decline line over S&amp;P 500 index\" class=\"wp-image-5421\" width=\"375\" height=\"402\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Throughout the lengthy 1929-32 bear market, as well as the 1973-74 bear market, there was never a “positive divergence” in market breadth. In other words, the advance-decline line [cumulative sum of daily advancing issues minus declining issues] led the bear market path every step of the way down. So to see a positive divergence today is yet another confirmation this bear market may be over. The A-D Line has broken well above its January rally high, thus leading the S&amp;P 500 upward since the March bottom. Some will argue this breadth gauge is less reliable since more ETFs and closed-end bond funds are traded on the NYSE. Perhaps. But we’ll simply let history speak for itself and give this technical tool our benefit of doubt until proven wrong.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>COPPOCK GUIDE: Is a Buy Signal Imminent?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>If recent market gains hold, then a “Buy Signal” appears imminent in the Coppock Guide this month.</em></strong> </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Coppock Guide was developed over 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock. Its historical value lies in signaling or confirming the best, low-risk buying opportunities in history – and it is one of the few technical tools that would have kept anxious investors from stepping  prematurely into the middle of the record 1929-32 debacle or the 1973-74 bear market. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This index is actually the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. In mathematical terms, it’s really just a momentum oscillator. Because of  this, it reverses direction when the long-term momentum or velocity in the market peaks. After dropping to ‘0’ or below, a mere 1-point upturn in this index can usually be treated as an excellent buying opportunity. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Some of the best (most important) buying opportunities have appeared when the Coppock Guide bottomed at a negative extreme below -20, including 1921, 1932, 1970, 1974 and 2003. And often, the more negative the Coppock Guide is when it turns upward, the more impressive the profits ahead. Under this guideline, only two false signals in 88 years have been recorded – once in 1941 and again in November 2001. </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today, the Coppock Guide is at its most oversold level since the bear markets of the 1930s – over 70 years ago. As a monthly indicator, we won’t know for certain whether a formal buy signal has been triggered until the end of the month. However, forward testing –based on current data– reveals the Coppock will turn upward from below ‘0’ if the market stabilizes near present levels or continues rising.  <em>Remember – this is a projection, not necessarily a certainty. <strong>So stay tuned…</strong></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5427,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/coppockV09I05-1024x784.png\" alt=\"Coppock guide over the S&amp;P 500 Index\" class=\"wp-image-5427\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>TWO MORE important shifts underway…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Consumer Confidence:</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p> After hitting a record 42-year low in February, Consumer Confidence just registered its largest monthly rebound in almost four years. While no guarantee of an economic recovery ahead, this is clearly a move in the right direction. More importantly, the majority of that confidence rebound came in the “future expectations” component of this gauge – representing consumers’ outlook six months ahead. And our tracking of the “future minus present” surveys now shows a clear uptrend … strikingly similar to the path that has typically led out of past recessions.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>RSI (Relative Strength Index):</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Here is what we said in our March 13 issue…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>One of the technical gauges of oversold (or overbought) extremes in the stock market is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by Welles Wilder. A long-term (18-month) version of this RSI has proven a valuable<br>tool in helping to identify potential market bottoms –or the best buying opportunities for investors. Basically, the Relative Strength Index compares the cumulative upward price changes over a defined period relative to the cumulative downward price changes. Here, once again, extremes in oversold conditions on Wall Street inevitably create the best buying opportunities. And the most oversold conditions can sometimes create a buying opportunity of a lifetime – at market levels that are never seen again!</p><cite>InvesTech Market Analyst – March 13, 2009</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since then, this Relative Strength Index has turned decisively upward in response to the latest rally. Notice that no upturn of this magnitude from this level has proven to be a false signal in the past 109 years! It’s just one more cumulative piece of evidence that the stock market low eight weeks ago may have been an important bottom.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5429,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/rsiv09i05-1024x627.png\" alt=\"Relative Strength Index over DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5429\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Housing – Light at the end of the tunnel</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5432,\"width\":402,\"height\":377,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/bubblev09i05.png\" alt=\"InvesTech\'s housing bubble bellwether index\" class=\"wp-image-5432\" width=\"402\" height=\"377\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Don’t count us among the raging bulls. If anything, we might be called a “cautious bull with some residual concerns about systemic mortgage risk.” But there, too, the outlook seems to be improving… </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First, our Housing Bubble Bellwether Index –which forewarned us in 2005 of the housing debacle ahead– is coming off a double-bottom, in which the March 9 low was not significantly lower than the low late last year. Even to this day, the parallel path of these housing-related stocks to the bursting of the 1990s Internet Bubble has been amazing!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In addition, much of the excess price inflation in housing appears to have been resolved. Nationally, the median family home price has fallen an unprecedented -29% since mid-2005, as shown in this graphic:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5433,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/pricingv09i05.png\" alt=\"Housing prices versus inflation\" class=\"wp-image-5433\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>That does not mean that home prices won’t continue lower or overshoot the long-term inflation trend before hitting bottom in 2010. However, it suggests to us that the majority of damage is over. [And we reserve judgment on those areas of the country that peaked late, like Whitefish, Montana.]</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also encouraging to see an upturn in the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) surveys on both Builder Confidence and the traffic of prospective buyers. With inventories now down to pre-bubble levels, we believe this upturn will have more staying ability than the temporary rebound in 2006.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5435,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/nahbv09i05.png\" alt=\"NAHB Builder Confidence Survey\" class=\"wp-image-5435\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\">Battling the Bears</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Frankly, we can come up with all sorts of reasons to remain a bit cautious about the market. Yet our objectivity compels us to gradually move our allocation in the direction of the evidence – and right now that is to the bullish side. Here’s what is not influencing our decisions, and why…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Volume is too light for this to be a new bull market!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is an argument that we’ve heard more than once, and has some historical validity. Volume on this rally, and particularly on big “up” days has been disappointingly average. But one of the reasons for this is that most bear market bottoms are accompanied by a dramatic shift in Fed policy, accompanied by interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed has no interest rate cards left to play. So regardless of when this bear market bottom occurs (or if it has already occurred), we expect volume to lag.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Sentiment never shifts bullish this fast – except on bear market rallies.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’re heard this statement from several noted analysts, however, we don’t see any factual basis for it. In fact, we continue to see a lot of skepticism and doubt (see “Wall of Worry” headlines on page 2). And currently at 8 weeks after the March bottom, the AAII survey shows only 36% of individual investors are bullish – compared to 49% bullish at the same time after the last bear market’s double-bottom in March 2003.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><br>Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence survey shows only 40% of advisory services have turned bullish. That compares to 48% bullish at 8 weeks after the March 2003 low, 37% bullish at 8 weeks after the 1982 bottom, and 53% bullish at 8 weeks after the December 1974 bottom. Bottom line: there  seems to be more doubt than bullishness today.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Insiders are already selling – so it must be a bear market rally.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":5440,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05-headlines-1024x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5440\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":5441,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/insider-trading.png\" alt=\"Chart of Insider Trading sales versus buys over the DJIA\" class=\"wp-image-5441\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To us, this is the worst argument to make, and history clearly supports us! As a group, corporate insiders usually make the worst investors. They often want to buy their stock when the market is falling (before a recession is recognized): i.e., 1973-74, and 1999-2000 at the dot-com peak. And even worse – their heaviest selling in history has occurred after early bull market run-ups in 1982 [1], 1985 [2], and 2003 [3]. <em>So if insiders are heavy sellers today, it’s not on our worry list.</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>This is only a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Secular? Cyclical? Forget the semantics. And let’s just focus on the technical facts!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":24} -->\n<div style=\"height:24px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":1274,\"width\":400,\"height\":59,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/JBS_SM-1024x117.png\" alt=\"James B Stack signature\" class=\"wp-image-1274\" width=\"400\" height=\"59\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/V09I05.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The Unloved Bull','','inherit','closed','closed','','2478-revision-v1','','','2021-02-05 19:15:28','2021-02-05 19:15:28','',2478,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2478-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5573,3,'2021-02-08 16:00:21','2021-02-08 16:00:21','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. With a safety-first investment strategy, the first line of defense for protecting assets is to selectively take profits off the table and hold the proceeds in cash. Adjusting stock and sector weightings toward more resilient areas of the market can also fortify a portfolio. When bear market warning flags begin to wave, adding a bear fund can further reduce exposure to downside market movements and lower portfolio volatility.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Bear Fund Fundamentals</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A bear fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to increase in value as the market drops. Conversely, the fund will lose value when the market rises. The original bear market mutual funds have been around since the mid-1990s, and several bear fund ETFs following the same principles were incepted just over a decade ago, prior to the last bear market. At InvesTech Research, the primary reason for using a bear fund is as an “insurance policy” to offset potential losses in core holdings of the portfolio during market declines. Our recommendation to add a bear fund to the Model Fund Portfolio has raised some questions from our subscribers. The most frequently asked questions –some simple, some more complex– are addressed below.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why use a bear fund instead of selling positions and raising cash?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Increasing cash in the portfolio is an important part of a defensive strategy, but there are several reasons for maintaining select long positions and partially offsetting them with the “insurance policy” of a bear market fund:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Diversification</strong>: Bear fund insurance allows you to hold onto more stocks in a portfolio, thus maintaining greater diversification while counteracting the impact of a stock or sector that doesn’t perform as anticipated.</li><li><strong>Lower portfolio volatility</strong>: Market volatility usually increases as risks rise. A strategy that manages risk is inherently less volatile, and by “neutralizing” a portion of the portfolio, volatility is reduced.</li><li><strong>Dividends</strong>: Dividend payments continue for the positions that are maintained in a portfolio.</li><li><strong>Reduce capital gains tax</strong>: In taxable accounts, selling stocks can create sizeable realized gains. Limiting sales can lessen the tax bite.</li><li><strong>Prepare for the next bull market</strong>: When risks begin to resolve and the time is right to increase market allocation, new additions for the portfolio must be properly vetted prior to purchase. In the meantime, exposure can be quickly increased by removing the bear fund, which “de-neutralizes” a portion of the portfolio to participate in the market recovery without delay.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What do we mean by a “net” long position?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4803,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ModelPortfolioBarChart.png\" alt=\"InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation\" class=\"wp-image-4803\"/><figcaption>InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio Allocation</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The “net” long position in the Model Fund Portfolio is currently 55%. But how does this all add up?</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As illustrated in the chart at right, current holdings include 63% long funds (blue), 8% short bear fund (red), and 29% cash (yellow). The bear fund effectively “neutralizes” or offsets the impact of an equivalent position of long holdings (shaded blue area). In other words, if the long position moves down, the bear fund moves up and the return on that combination should be negligible for the day. Therefore, the net long position, or overall exposure to the equity market, is the 63% long position minus the 8% short position which is equal to a 55% “net” long position.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why is the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 ETF (SH) a good choice for the Model Fund Portfolio?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We recommended SH for a number of reasons. Our portfolio holdings are based on S&amp;P 500 sectors, so it’s appropriate to select an inverse index fund correlated to this broad market Index. ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 was incepted in 2006 and has a solid track record through the last bear market. It is the largest and most liquid inverse S&amp;P 500 fund, currently holding over $1.6B in assets. We also like some of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds such as lower expense ratios and the ability to trade throughout the day.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, this fund is passively managed to inversely correlate to the Index’s daily returns. Actively managed funds typically focus on profiting from shorting individual stocks, frequently use resource holdings, and may concentrate on attempts to time the market. Performance can vary depending on the manager’s ability to pick the right stocks to short. Thus, for a safety-first strategy, a more predictable passive fund is the best choice for our purposes.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4801,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/bear_market_funds2.png\" alt=\"Bear Market Alternative Funds\" class=\"wp-image-4801\"/><figcaption><strong>Bear Market Alternatives</strong></figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We’ve assembled a list of some of the larger funds that have longer track records, including both ETFs and mutual funds. Before purchasing any on the list above, you should perform your own due diligence to determine the suitability for your portfolio. Reasons for providing these additional choices include:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Some retirement accounts are limited to mutual fund investments only.</li><li>When using a passively managed fund, it’s best to choose one based on an index that most closely matches your portfolio holdings.</li><li>If you are willing to accept the added risk that comes with an actively managed fund, you may want to consider one of the total return alternatives.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>If a passive bear fund offsets the market on a daily basis, what happens over a longer period of time?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Due to the compounding of daily returns, performance over periods longer than one day will likely differ from the inverse of the target index. To demonstrate, let’s look at an exaggerated example of how compounding affects returns.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4802,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SH_SP500_07_10.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007\" class=\"wp-image-4802\"/><figcaption>S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Assume that both ProShares Short S&amp;P 500 (SH) and the S&amp;P 500 start with a value of $100. On Day 1, the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% causing SH to gain 10%. The S&amp;P 500, therefore, ends Day 1 with a price of $90, while SH has grown to $110. If on Day 2 the S&amp;P 500 loses 10% again, its price drops to $81 and SH increases to $121. While achieving perfect correlation on a daily basis, after two days the S&amp;P 500 is down 19% and SH is up 21%.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the stock market continues to decline after purchasing a bear fund, gains can be much more than you might expect due to progressively larger dollar changes based on the increasing value of the investment. On the other hand, if the stock market rises persistently after a bear fund is purchased, the daily percentage changes result in progressively smaller dollar changes as the value of the investment decreases. Hence, investors lose less than they might expect when the fund’s return over the course of the rally is calculated.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This point is illustrated in the graphs at right, which show the S&amp;P 500 and SH after the stock market peak in October 2007. Clearly, bear funds can serve as valuable “insurance” in a declining market, even if the position is held past the market bottom. <strong>One important note:</strong> bear fund performance in trendless, volatile markets is less predictable than in markets persistently trending up or down. In fact, due to compounding effects, an inverse index fund may even decline as the market remains flat.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Why don’t you use a leveraged bear fund?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A leveraged bear fund is designed to go up two or three times as much as its benchmark goes down on a daily basis. “More” might sound better to the average investor; however, trying to time bear markets or corrections rarely works, and one can easily get burned with leveraged funds if the market doesn\'t move as anticipated and the compounding effect is magnified. With this in mind, we’d avoid the leveraged bear market funds due to the increased volatility and risk.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Summary: A Safety-first Approach</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Bear market funds should be used to neutralize portfolio risk and help you sleep at night – not as a tool for speculative short-term trading. With a safety-first investment strategy, an inverse index fund can serve as an effective, low cost insurance offering an efficient way to offset rising market risk and reduce portfolio volatility. When considering a bear fund, the following guidelines should be helpful:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>Use bear funds as an insurance to offset a portion of your portfolio investments.</li><li>Stay with the passively managed bear funds that inversely correlate with the broader indexes.</li><li>Choose the larger more liquid funds with longer track records.</li><li>Gradually implement a bear fund position as a bear market becomes more likely.</li><li>Do not use leveraged funds.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If bear funds are not an option for your portfolio, the alternative is to reduce your long positions to reach the target “net” allocation and hold the balance in cash.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":69} -->\n<div style=\"height:69px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This report is also available to read in PDF format.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Bitcoin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','The \"Bare Necessities\" About Bear Funds','Managing risk in the final stages of a market cycle is vitally important for preserving capital and generating superior long-term investment returns. ','inherit','closed','closed','','2457-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:00:21','2021-02-08 16:00:21','',2457,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2457-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5574,3,'2021-02-08 16:01:45','2021-02-08 16:01:45','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4988,\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/rollercoaster.png\" alt=\"Thrilled people at the top of roller coaster about to plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-4988 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong> - MarketWatch, 1/31/17</li><li><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> - LA Times, 4/9/17</li><li><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> - Financial Times, 5/10/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong> - Barron\'s, 5/3/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaId\":4831,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":56} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:56% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The late 1990s: As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong> - Fortune, 11/9/98</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong> - Business  Week 2/22/99</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In March 1999, we published the issue shown at right, comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>2006-07: Index investing was even more popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong> - The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong> - Boston Globe, 2/27/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong> - USA Today, 7/20/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":56} -->\n<div style=\"height:56px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:01:45','2021-02-08 16:01:45','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2468-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5575,3,'2021-02-08 16:04:49','2021-02-08 16:04:49','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4898,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/iceberg.jpg\" alt=\"SBLs are the tip of the iceberg\" class=\"wp-image-4898\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong><br>Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere. Some of it is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":21} -->\n<div style=\"height:21px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong>  – <em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></li><li><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong><em> – Investment News, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong> <em>– Reuters, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans </strong><em>– Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":512,\"height\":251,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>So, where’s the risk?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":35} -->\n<div style=\"height:35px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Back Loans','','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:04:49','2021-02-08 16:04:49','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2472-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5576,3,'2021-02-08 16:05:26','2021-02-08 16:05:26','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4898,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/iceberg.jpg\" alt=\"SBLs are the tip of the iceberg\" class=\"wp-image-4898\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong><br>Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere. Some of it is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":21} -->\n<div style=\"height:21px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong>  – <em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></li><li><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong><em> – Investment News, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong> <em>– Reuters, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans </strong><em>– Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":512,\"height\":251,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>So, where’s the risk?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":35} -->\n<div style=\"height:35px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Back Loans','','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:05:26','2021-02-08 16:05:26','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2472-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5578,3,'2021-02-08 16:09:12','2021-02-08 16:09:12','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4898,\"width\":571,\"height\":360,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/iceberg.jpg\" alt=\"SBLs are the tip of the iceberg\" class=\"wp-image-4898\" width=\"571\" height=\"360\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong><br>Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere. Some of it is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":21} -->\n<div style=\"height:21px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong>  – <em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></li><li><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong><em> – Investment News, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong> <em>– Reuters, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans </strong><em>– Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":512,\"height\":251,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>So, where’s the risk?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":35} -->\n<div style=\"height:35px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Back Loans','','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:09:12','2021-02-08 16:09:12','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2472-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5579,3,'2021-02-08 16:09:47','2021-02-08 16:09:47','<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Securities-Backed Loans… Just the Tip of the Iceberg?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4898,\"width\":381,\"height\":240,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/iceberg.jpg\" alt=\"SBLs are the tip of the iceberg\" class=\"wp-image-4898\" width=\"381\" height=\"240\"/><figcaption>Nine-tenths of an iceberg\'s volume is below the water</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Aging bull markets are naturally predisposed to excesses –particularly in debt and leverage– and once again nontraditional loans are taking center stage.</p></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Markets are relaxing merrily on a powerful time bomb</strong><br>Stock and bond market leverage is everywhere. Some of it is transparent, such as NYSE margin debt which was $539 billion as of the June report. But the hottest form of stock and bond market leverage is opaque, offered by financial firms that usually don’t disclose the totals: securities-based loans (SBLs) – or “shadow margin” because no one knows how much of it there is.</p><cite><em>Business Insider – 7/30/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":21} -->\n<div style=\"height:21px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It’s been over 12 years since we warned about the highly questionable mortgage lending practices that mushroomed during the Housing Bubble. Now it appears that innovative lending is back in vogue. Securities-backed loans (SBLs) are among Wall Street’s hottest new products in this bull market, and they’ve been growing faster than Jack’s beanstalk over the past few years:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Borrowing With Stock Soars as Market Rises</strong>  – <em>Wall Street Journal, 7/28/17</em></li><li><strong>Fidelity taps Goldman Sachs to expand lending services through RIAs</strong><em> – Investment News, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Goldman Sachs is launching a digital platform for the rich to borrow as much as $25 million</strong> <em>– Reuters, 7/27/17</em></li><li><strong>Wall Street Sharks Entice Customers With Securities-Backed Loans </strong><em>– Seeking Alpha, 8/13/17</em></li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs are often referred to as “shadow margin” because they’re not tracked in the margin debt figures, nor are they tracked by either the SEC or the brokerage regulator FINRA. Nobody knows how extensive such loans are, but based on anecdotal evidence they total at least $100 billion and we believe the figure could be much larger.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4901,\"width\":512,\"height\":251,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/MorganStanley-1024x502.png\" alt=\"Morgan Stanley ad for securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4901\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\"/><figcaption>Morgan Stanle<strong>y</strong> Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>According to a July 2017 Wall Street Journal article, Bank of America’s wealth unit had $40 billion in outstanding securities-backed loans at the end of 2016, up 140% from 2010. Morgan Stanley had $30 billion in these loans, more than double the amount in 2013. And, not to be left behind, Goldman Sachs is teaming up with Fidelity and other brokerages to broaden the availability of credit via its new digital lending program, “GS Select.”</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What are securities-backed loans (SBLs), and why are they popular?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4902,\"width\":229,\"height\":194,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WellsFargo.png\" alt=\"Wells Fargo advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4902\" width=\"229\" height=\"194\"/><figcaption>Wells Fargo Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In simple terms, SBLs are loans that are marketed to investors as an easy and inexpensive way to access extra cash by borrowing against the securities in one’s investment portfolio without having to liquidate those holdings. Funds can be used for any purpose except buying more stock or repaying a margin loan. For instance, these loans might be used for buying real estate, investing in a business, funding education, or for personal use like taking a trip or paying for a wedding.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Fixed loans can run the gamut from $25,000 to $25 million or more, depending on the lender and the amount of collateral. A typical SBL agreement permits an investor to borrow from 50% to 95% of the value of the assets in his or her non-retirement investment account, based on the size of the portfolio and the types and mix of securities held. These lending arrangements can be set up as a fixed loan, but more often they’re established as a revolving SBL line of credit (SBLOC). It’s not uncommon for a firm to require that account assets have a market value of at least $100,000 to qualify for an SBLOC.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>The sales pitch is irresistible!</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking at the promotional materials shown in this report from broker websites touting SBLs, who wouldn’t want to avail themselves of this offering? According to the ads, you’ve worked hard to grow your investments over the years; now you can capitalize on those assets to finance your dreams without drawing down your portfolio.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"left\",\"id\":4903,\"width\":357,\"height\":262,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/UBS-1024x751.png\" alt=\"UBS advertising securities-backed loans\" class=\"wp-image-4903\" width=\"357\" height=\"262\"/><figcaption>UBS Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>With an SBLOC, the cash is readily available (up to the credit limits) any time you need it.</li><li>Other than securities related transactions, there are no restrictions on how you use the loan.</li><li>An SBLOC lets you keep your investment account intact, allowing it to continue to grow.</li><li>By borrowing to meet your cash needs, you can avoid selling securities and triggering capital gains taxes.</li><li>Because SBLs are backed by portfolio assets, interest rates can be much lower than traditional loans.</li><li>Once an SBLOC is in place, it can be used repeatedly and you’re only required to make monthly interest payments – there is no maturity date.</li><li>There are usually no fees to establish the loan or credit line and funds are available quickly. Goldman Sachs’ digital platform promotes a 24-hour turnaround.</li><li>Typically, no personal financial statements, tax returns, or other documents are required.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>What’s in it for the brokers?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":4904,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/GoldmanSachs-300x204.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs securities lending advertisement\" class=\"wp-image-4904\"/><figcaption>Goldman Sachs Advertisement</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SBLs and lines of credit have become lucrative new sources of income for brokerages, helping to replace revenue lost due to recent cuts in commission rates. In addition, brokers retain portfolio assets, along with their associated fees, as customers can access cash without making withdrawals. In some cases, establishing these loans may factor into a broker’s compensation, and marketing these credit options creates “sticky” clients as it’s hard to transfer assets to another broker with a securities-backed loan outstanding. Even if a client doesn’t use the line of credit immediately, the longer it’s in place, the more likely it is that he or she will eventually tap it.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>So, where’s the risk?</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>With SBLs, as with all financial obligations, it’s vitally important to read the fine print or risks section before committing. Careful attention to this step reveals that brokerages and banks get all the benefits of secured, full-recourse loans, while customers take all the risk. This may seem acceptable in a healthy bull market, but it can be catastrophic to the pledged portfolio in a downturn.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The following are some of the risks that investors may face if they borrow against an investment account. It’s these risks that prompted the SEC and FINRA to issue a special Investor Alert in 2015 regarding this type of lending:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>If the value of the securities declines below a minimum level, you may be subject to a collateral “maintenance call” with little or no advanced warning, giving you minimal time to pay the loan or deposit more cash or securities in the account. Note that if this occurs, there are no extensions, and a broker can change its collateral maintenance requirement at any time without notifying you.</li><li>If you are unable to meet a maintenance call, the broker can liquidate part, or all, of your portfolio holdings at their discretion. You do not pick the stocks to sell. In a bear market, that could mean selling core holdings at a market bottom or alternatively realizing significant tax gains on long-held securities.</li><li>In a major downturn, you could be forced to forfeit all your pledged assets – in this case, the stocks, funds, and bonds in your portfolio. This is a major drawback to asset-backed loans…</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><strong>Why Goldman Sachs Seized a Client’s 217-Foot Yacht</strong></p><cite><em>Wall Street Journal - 8/10/17</em></cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":35} -->\n<div style=\"height:35px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>In the worst-case scenario, you might lose more funds than are held in the collateral account, and as a full-recourse loan, you would be liable for any deficiency.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li>For SBLOCs, the interest rate on your loan is generally a floating rate that can change daily. With interest rates rising, the cost of your SBLOC could increase significantly.</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The proliferation of SBLs and SBLOCs obviously increases the risks in this late-stage bull market. While history shows that excessive debt accumulation does not trigger a stock market peak, it can accelerate and intensify losses when the leverage starts to unwind in a bear market. Today’s levels of these securities-backed loans are small relative to overall consumer and business debt, but they can be dangerous. Like subprime mortgage loans 10 years ago, if trouble appears in terms of mass collateral maintenance calls, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our September 15, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format. <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/pdf_files_wp/SBLs-2017.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF</a>.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Securities-Back Loans','','inherit','closed','closed','','2472-revision-v1','','','2021-02-08 16:09:47','2021-02-08 16:09:47','',2472,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2472-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5596,1,'2021-02-10 21:44:50','2021-02-10 21:44:50','<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"className\":\"is-small-margin-h3\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center is-small-margin-h3\" id=\"over-40-years-of-proven-track-record-5565a1b1-b3b7-42e4-9bbf-0312cb9f9f9e\">Over 40 Years of Proven Track Record</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:shortcode -->\n[cool-timeline layout=\"horizontal\" category=\"history\" skin=\"default\" designs=\"design-2\" show-posts=\"10\" order=\"ASC\" items=\"3\" icons=\"NO\" story-content=\"full\"  based=\"custom\" autoplay=\"false\" start-on=\"0\"]\n<!-- /wp:shortcode -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\" id=\"5-reasons-to-subscribe-to-investech-research-61849543-efdd-4aa3-9971-2f4826ad995e\">5 Reasons to Subscribe to InvesTech Research</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordions {\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordions advgb-accordion-wrapper\" data-collapsed=\"true\">\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordion-item {\"header\":\"A “Safety-First” Strategy that gives you peace of mind\",\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordion-item advgb-accordion-item\" style=\"margin-bottom:15px\"><div class=\"advgb-accordion-header\" style=\"background-color:#00467f;color:#eee;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;border-radius:10px\"><span class=\"advgb-accordion-header-icon\"><svg fill=\"#fff\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path opacity=\"0.87\" fill=\"none\" d=\"M24,24H0L0,0l24,0V24z\"></path><path d=\"M16.59,8.59L12,13.17L7.41,8.59L6,10l6,6l6-6L16.59,8.59z\"></path></svg></span><h4 class=\"advgb-accordion-header-title\" style=\"color:inherit\">A “Safety-First” Strategy that gives you peace of mind</h4></div><div class=\"advgb-accordion-body\" style=\"border-style:solid !important;border-width:1px !important;border-color:undefined !important;border-top:none !important;border-radius:10px !important\">\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech has successfully navigated the past 40 years of market gyrations and major bear markets, including the 1987 Crash, the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, and the 2007 Housing Bubble and Great Recession. InvesTech transforms the art of technical analysis into a more precise “science” – easily explained for both seasoned professionals and non-technical investors.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n</div></div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordion-item -->\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordion-item {\"header\":\"A commitment to both safety and profits\",\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordion-item advgb-accordion-item\" style=\"margin-bottom:15px\"><div class=\"advgb-accordion-header\" style=\"background-color:#00467f;color:#eee;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;border-radius:10px\"><span class=\"advgb-accordion-header-icon\"><svg fill=\"#fff\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path opacity=\"0.87\" fill=\"none\" d=\"M24,24H0L0,0l24,0V24z\"></path><path d=\"M16.59,8.59L12,13.17L7.41,8.59L6,10l6,6l6-6L16.59,8.59z\"></path></svg></span><h4 class=\"advgb-accordion-header-title\" style=\"color:inherit\">A commitment to both safety and profits</h4></div><div class=\"advgb-accordion-body\" style=\"border-style:solid !important;border-width:1px !important;border-color:undefined !important;border-top:none !important;border-radius:10px !important\">\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is equally committed to helping you protect and conserve your money against losses as it is in helping you spot tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n</div></div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordion-item -->\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordion-item {\"header\":\"Over 120 years of technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data\",\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordion-item advgb-accordion-item\" style=\"margin-bottom:15px\"><div class=\"advgb-accordion-header\" style=\"background-color:#00467f;color:#eee;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;border-radius:10px\"><span class=\"advgb-accordion-header-icon\"><svg fill=\"#fff\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path opacity=\"0.87\" fill=\"none\" d=\"M24,24H0L0,0l24,0V24z\"></path><path d=\"M16.59,8.59L12,13.17L7.41,8.59L6,10l6,6l6-6L16.59,8.59z\"></path></svg></span><h4 class=\"advgb-accordion-header-title\" style=\"color:inherit\">Over 120 years of technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data</h4></div><div class=\"advgb-accordion-body\" style=\"border-style:solid !important;border-width:1px !important;border-color:undefined !important;border-top:none !important;border-radius:10px !important\">\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is unique in its ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio ahead.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n</div></div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordion-item -->\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordion-item {\"header\":\"Time-tested proprietary tools and proven historical analysis\",\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordion-item advgb-accordion-item\" style=\"margin-bottom:15px\"><div class=\"advgb-accordion-header\" style=\"background-color:#00467f;color:#eee;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;border-radius:10px\"><span class=\"advgb-accordion-header-icon\"><svg fill=\"#fff\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path opacity=\"0.87\" fill=\"none\" d=\"M24,24H0L0,0l24,0V24z\"></path><path d=\"M16.59,8.59L12,13.17L7.41,8.59L6,10l6,6l6-6L16.59,8.59z\"></path></svg></span><h4 class=\"advgb-accordion-header-title\" style=\"color:inherit\">Time-tested proprietary tools and proven historical analysis</h4></div><div class=\"advgb-accordion-body\" style=\"border-style:solid !important;border-width:1px !important;border-color:undefined !important;border-top:none !important;border-radius:10px !important\">\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech offers proprietary indicators and timely analysis based on one of the largest private databanks in the industry.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n</div></div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordion-item -->\n<!-- wp:advgb/accordion-item {\"header\":\"An independent 100% objective point of view\",\"headerBgColor\":\"#00467f\",\"headerIcon\":\"arrowDown\",\"borderWidth\":1,\"borderRadius\":10,\"collapsedAll\":true,\"changed\":true,\"rootBlockId\":\"69745554-bc50-4f52-a677-00d8327e1d9e\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-advgb-accordion-item advgb-accordion-item\" style=\"margin-bottom:15px\"><div class=\"advgb-accordion-header\" style=\"background-color:#00467f;color:#eee;border-style:solid;border-width:1px;border-radius:10px\"><span class=\"advgb-accordion-header-icon\"><svg fill=\"#fff\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path opacity=\"0.87\" fill=\"none\" d=\"M24,24H0L0,0l24,0V24z\"></path><path d=\"M16.59,8.59L12,13.17L7.41,8.59L6,10l6,6l6-6L16.59,8.59z\"></path></svg></span><h4 class=\"advgb-accordion-header-title\" style=\"color:inherit\">An independent 100% objective point of view</h4></div><div class=\"advgb-accordion-body\" style=\"border-style:solid !important;border-width:1px !important;border-color:undefined !important;border-top:none !important;border-radius:10px !important\">\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech offers independent, objective analysis. We sell no investment products, so we bring you an objectivity that you’ll never find from brokers, mutual fund advisors, and even many investment newsletters.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n</div></div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordion-item -->\n</div>\n<!-- /wp:advgb/accordions -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\" id=\"investechs-webcam-of-big-mountain-619bae76-00fd-483d-8ca4-e8a3f5efd7c5\">InvesTech\'s Webcam of Big Mountain</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Looking north from our office, we have an incredible view of Big Mountain, which stands just west of Glacier National Park and is part of the Flathead National Forest.<br></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":2717,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"className\":\"is-style-rounded\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-rounded\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Webcam.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2717\"/></a></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><a aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/webcam/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click Here</a></strong>&nbsp;to view our live webcam, weather and daylight permitting. If the clouds have rolled in, then you can also browse some of our favorite photos taken on nicer days.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\n    \"id\": \"block_5fbe808146386\",\n    \"name\": \"acf\\/subscriber-content-teaser\",\n    \"data\": {\n        \"post_to_show\": [\n            \"3059\"\n        ],\n        \"_post_to_show\": \"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\n        \"post_type_to_show\": \"investech-indicators\",\n        \"_post_type_to_show\": \"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\n        \"number_to_show\": \"1\",\n        \"_number_to_show\": \"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"\n    },\n    \"align\": \"\",\n    \"mode\": \"preview\"\n} /-->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"center\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-center\" id=\"best-sources-for-investment-advice-cf81eed5-7bae-47ac-a88c-98ad3078792d\">Best sources for Investment Advice</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><em><em>\"Best Stock Market Letter: InvesTech Research, which promises \'safety-first profits,\' has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations.”</em></em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"right\",\"id\":2166,\"width\":140,\"height\":51} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/kiplinger_small-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2166\" width=\"140\" height=\"51\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\" id=\"what-subscribers-are-saying-d86a8c3f-ba05-4467-a27c-8ceadca85970\">What subscribers are saying</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><em>I’d like to offer a special word of praise for all the work the entire InvesTech staff of professionals does to help bring meaningful technical and fundamental insights to the attention of your subscribers. &nbsp;There is no one who can compare with what you do or the way in which you do it.</em></p><cite>P.E.P., Ph.D., Okemos, MI</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left\"><p><em>You have the discipline of a seasoned technician, but you also have the insight of a brilliant theoretician. That is a very rare combination. You have made us a lot of money, but you have saved us even more.</em></p><cite>B.P., San Juan Capistrano, CA</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><em>You guys add sanity to more than counterbalance what you see and hear in the so-called \'business news.\' Thank you for helping me keep my family\'s financial plan on course.</em></p><cite>F.D., Baldwinsville, NY</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p><em>I have followed Jim carefully over these many years, and I am absolutely convinced that he is the \'top of the class\' of independent thinkers.</em></p><cite>C.C., Inverness, IL</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\">This is a Blue Default</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button -->\n\n<!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-yellow\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-yellow\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\">This is yellow</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->','Home','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2021-02-10 21:44:50','2021-02-10 21:44:50','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/4-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5600,3,'2021-02-11 17:52:26','2021-02-11 17:52:26','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4988,\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/rollercoaster.png\" alt=\"Thrilled people at the top of roller coaster about to plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-4988 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong> - MarketWatch, 1/31/17</li><li><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> - LA Times, 4/9/17</li><li><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> - Financial Times, 5/10/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong> - Barron\'s, 5/3/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":4831} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The late 1990s: As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong> - Fortune, 11/9/98</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong> - Business  Week 2/22/99</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In March 1999, we published the issue shown at right, comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>2006-07: Index investing was even more popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong> - The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong> - Boston Globe, 2/27/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong> - USA Today, 7/20/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":56} -->\n<div style=\"height:56px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-02-11 17:52:26','2021-02-11 17:52:26','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2468-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5601,3,'2021-02-11 17:52:57','2021-02-11 17:52:57','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4988,\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/rollercoaster.png\" alt=\"Thrilled people at the top of roller coaster about to plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-4988 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong> - MarketWatch, 1/31/17</li><li><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> - LA Times, 4/9/17</li><li><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> - Financial Times, 5/10/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong> - Barron\'s, 5/3/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The late 1990s: As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong> - Fortune, 11/9/98</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong> - Business  Week 2/22/99</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In March 1999, we published the issue shown at right, comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>2006-07: Index investing was even more popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong> - The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong> - Boston Globe, 2/27/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong> - USA Today, 7/20/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":56} -->\n<div style=\"height:56px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-02-11 17:52:57','2021-02-11 17:52:57','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2468-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5603,3,'2021-02-11 17:53:43','2021-02-11 17:53:43','<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4988,\"mediaType\":\"image\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/rollercoaster.png\" alt=\"Thrilled people at the top of roller coaster about to plunge.\" class=\"wp-image-4988 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>Tempted by high-flying ETFs in this aging bull market? Just remember… Excitement is highest as the roller coaster goes over the top!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In today’s technologically advanced world, featuring self-driving cars, pilotless airplanes, and smart homes, a “hands-off” trend is also gaining popularity among the investing public. As indicated by the headlines below, passive index investing has become all the rage, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the tool of choice:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>ETFs could see $1 trillion in inflows over the coming year</strong> - MarketWatch, 1/31/17</li><li><strong>Small investors’ move to ‘passive’ stock funds becomes a stampede</strong> - LA Times, 4/9/17</li><li><strong>Global ETF assets reach $4tn</strong> <em>The global exchange traded fund industry smashed past $4tn in assets last month…</em> - Financial Times, 5/10/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"placeholder\":\"Content…\"} -->\n<p>And our personal favorite...</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Wheee! A Quadruple-Leveraged S&amp;P 500 ETF is Here</strong> - Barron\'s, 5/3/17</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3>Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The first Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in 1993, and although they were slow to start, ETFs have proliferated over the last decade, both in number (see graph at right) and the variety of index funds available. There’s now an ETF for nearly every strategy, no matter how esoteric, and that has helped fuel the passive investing craze.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4829,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/number-of-etfs.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute\" class=\"wp-image-4829\"/><figcaption>Number of ETFs (registered in the U.S.), Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Over the past 24 years, one can see the shift in interest from actively managed mutual funds toward passive investing. As shown in the graph at left, net cash flows into actively managed funds were still four times larger than passive funds from 1993 through 2000. From 2001 through 2008, a change becomes evident as net cash flows for active funds turned negative while passive funds continued to grow. The disparity between the active and passive net cash flows during the current bull market (2009-2016) is remarkable, and it shows why there’s been a parabolic increase in the number of ETFs!</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4831,\"width\":713,\"height\":397} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Active-vs-Passive-Stock-Funds-Inflows.png\" alt=\"Graph showing net cash flows into actively managed funds between 1993 and 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" width=\"713\" height=\"397\"/><figcaption>Active vs. Passive Domestic Stock Funds; Source: Investment Company Institute</figcaption></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>So why has passive investing become all the rage in recent years?</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many investors have been burned –not once, but twice– by the Tech Bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble in 2007. Also, they are frustrated with the challenges of managing investments… a task that in this uncertain bull market has frequently seemed counterproductive.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The most popular index funds are touted as low-cost and broadly diversified, with a portfolio full of blue chip stocks. Moreover, ETFs offer “instant liquidity” with intraday trading compared to mutual funds that only settle at the end of each trading day. To the average investor, passive funds with minimal fees, implied safety, and lots of liquidity may appear to be the Holy Grail. As we’ll see, however, there is more to the story…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"left\",\"className\":\"is-style-default\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-left is-style-default\"><p>Excitement is Highest as the Roller Coaster Goes Over the Top.</p><cite>– Anonymous</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":4839,\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":43,\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 43%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Total-Assets-Domestic-Equity-Index-Funds.png\" alt=\"Graph showing the total assets in Domestic Equity Index Funds, 1990\'s to 2016\" class=\"wp-image-4839 size-full\"/></figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Just as the number of ETFs has grown, the past few years have witnessed an explosion in assets tied to passive investing that has extended to both mutual funds and ETFs (as shown in graph at right). A large part of the growth has been in ETFs, which are poised to overtake index mutual funds as the preferred indexing vehicle. Both types of products have doubled in assets just since 2012.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is important to recognize that passive investing is not a fresh new idea; in fact, the concept was introduced by John Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) in the 1970s. This strategy has shifted in and out of favor, becoming more popular as bull markets age and losing its luster only after the damage has been done by the next bear market. Just like riding a roller coaster, the peak in public enthusiasm often comes as the bull market is cresting the top.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2>A Trip back in Time…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The rise in the popularity of index funds has been seen before.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:quote {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-align-center\"><p>It’s like deja vu all over again.</p><cite>- Yogi Berra</cite></blockquote>\n<!-- /wp:quote -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The late 1990s: As the decade of the 1990s became the longest bull market in Wall Street history, the Tech Bubble wasn’t the only phenomenon catching investors’ attention. In 1998-99, headlines were touting the benefit of index investing as inflows reached record levels:</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Saving for Retirement Index Fever</strong> - Fortune, 11/9/98</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Who Needs a Money Manager?</strong> - Business  Week 2/22/99</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"><!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In March 1999, we published the issue shown at right, comparing the emotional influx of index investors to lemmings. However, instead of falling off a cliff, index investors fell into the largest bear market since the 1930s (the S&amp;P 500 Index lost -49.1%).</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>2006-07: Index investing was even more popular at the peak of the last bull market (also one of the longer bull markets of the past 80 years):</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index Funds: So Hot Right Now</strong> - The Motley Fool, 12/11/06</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Index funds help you avoid risks of stock selection, market timing</strong> - Boston Globe, 2/27/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><li><strong>Owning the S&amp;P 500 is cheap, easy and smart</strong> - USA Today, 7/20/07</li></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":4840,\"width\":195,\"height\":201,\"sizeSlug\":\"medium\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/V99I04-216x300.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4840\" width=\"195\" height=\"201\"/><figcaption>March 12, 1999</figcaption></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In these previous periods, much like today, most investors perceived index funds – particularly the S&amp;P 500 Index funds – to be more diversified, safer investments. In the next two pages, we’ll discuss why index funds may not be all they’re thought to be…</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":56} -->\n<div style=\"height:56px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n<!-- /wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>First published in our June 16, 2017 issue. Also available to read in PDF format.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/IndexingFever.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download the PDF.</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->','Passive Investing: Inevitable Black Eye','','inherit','closed','closed','','2468-revision-v1','','','2021-02-11 17:53:43','2021-02-11 17:53:43','',2468,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/2468-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (5606,3,'2021-02-11 18:05:17','2021-02-11 18:05:17','','sheep','','inherit','closed','closed','','sheep','','','2021-02-11 18:05:17','2021-02-11 18:05:17','',2470,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/sheep.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (16775,2,'2023-02-14 13:43:35','2023-02-14 19:43:35','<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:uagb/call-to-action {\"classMigrate\":true,\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"titleColor\":\"#008585\",\"descColor\":\"\",\"descSpace\":20,\"block_id\":\"999c02e5\",\"buttonAlign\":\"\",\"ctaIcon\":\"calendar-days\",\"ctaIconPosition\":\"before\",\"ctaText\":\"Economic Trends\",\"contentWidth\":60,\"ctaBtnLinkColor\":\"\",\"stack\":\"desktop\",\"ctaTopPadding\":10,\"ctaBottomPadding\":10,\"ctaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaTopPadding\":10,\"secondCtaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaBottomPadding\":10,\"secondCtaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaBorderWidth\":\"\",\"ctaBorderRadius\":\"\",\"ctaBorderColor\":\"\",\"ctaBorderStyle\":\"\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderTopLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderTopRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-call-to-action uagb-block-999c02e5 wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-cta__wrap\"><h3 class=\"uagb-cta__title\">New to InvesTech Research - <em>Economic Trends</em></h3><p class=\"uagb-cta__desc\">Stay up to date with the latest economic trends! This new feature tracks important indicators you should be watching. Economic Trends are available from our Menu or the button here.<br><br><strong>This new service is FREE, so you are welcome to share with friends and family!</strong></p></div><div class=\"uagb-cta__buttons\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"uagb-cta__button-link-wrapper wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M160 32V64H288V32C288 14.33 302.3 0 320 0C337.7 0 352 14.33 352 32V64H400C426.5 64 448 85.49 448 112V160H0V112C0 85.49 21.49 64 48 64H96V32C96 14.33 110.3 0 128 0C145.7 0 160 14.33 160 32zM0 192H448V464C448 490.5 426.5 512 400 512H48C21.49 512 0 490.5 0 464V192zM64 304C64 312.8 71.16 320 80 320H112C120.8 320 128 312.8 128 304V272C128 263.2 120.8 256 112 256H80C71.16 256 64 263.2 64 272V304zM192 304C192 312.8 199.2 320 208 320H240C248.8 320 256 312.8 256 304V272C256 263.2 248.8 256 240 256H208C199.2 256 192 263.2 192 272V304zM336 256C327.2 256 320 263.2 320 272V304C320 312.8 327.2 320 336 320H368C376.8 320 384 312.8 384 304V272C384 263.2 376.8 256 368 256H336zM64 432C64 440.8 71.16 448 80 448H112C120.8 448 128 440.8 128 432V400C128 391.2 120.8 384 112 384H80C71.16 384 64 391.2 64 400V432zM208 384C199.2 384 192 391.2 192 400V432C192 440.8 199.2 448 208 448H240C248.8 448 256 440.8 256 432V400C256 391.2 248.8 384 240 384H208zM320 432C320 440.8 327.2 448 336 448H368C376.8 448 384 440.8 384 432V400C384 391.2 376.8 384 368 384H336C327.2 384 320 391.2 320 400V432z\"></path></svg>Economic Trends</a></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/call-to-action --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":14420,\"width\":268,\"height\":80,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BARRONS-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14420\" width=\"268\" height=\"80\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3,\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h3 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\">Read what InvesTech &amp; Jim Stack were saying BEFORE the market peaked and started falling…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>“Preparing for a Bear Market”</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dec. 17, 2021 –&nbsp;<em>Barron’s&nbsp;</em>interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today’s high-risk market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>full article</strong></a>&nbsp;to see what steps investors should be taking to navigate this market safely.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":14855,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/v22i02thumb/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":26} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 26%\"><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"med-grey\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-med-grey-color has-text-color\">Don’t miss this essential issue as the Fed heads toward a monetary showdown…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><em>On Collision Course with a Bear Market</em></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Before volatility returned with a vengeance, InvesTech published its February issue, where we laid out the path of a (probable) bear market. With warning flags dropping into place, lofty levels of speculation and overvaluation, and increasingly entrenched inflation pressures, this has begun to resemble one of the most significant bull market tops in history. Download this <em>free </em>issue to learn how ultra-accommodative monetary policies from the Fed have led to a speculative frenzy, the similarities of this market to the unwinding of the Tech Bubble, the potential downside risk ahead, and how to safely navigate this dangerous environment.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/marketing-button {\"block_id\":\"eebf05c8\",\"classMigrate\":true,\"link\":\"/free-important-issue/\",\"linkTarget\":true,\"backgroundColor\":\"#a60d0d\",\"backgroundHoverColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"titleColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"titleHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"iconColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"iconHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"prefixColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"prefixHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\",\"className\":\"uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-marketing-button uagb-marketing-btn__align-center uagb-marketing-btn__align-text-center uagb-marketing-btn__icon-after uagb-block-eebf05c8 wp-block-button uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"><a href=\"/free-important-issue/\" class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__link wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__title\">Free Important Issue</span><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M384 320c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v96H64V160h96c17.67 0 32-14.32 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32L64 96c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64V448c0 35.34 28.65 64 64 64h288c35.35 0 64-28.66 64-64v-96C416 334.3 401.7 320 384 320zM488 0H352c-12.94 0-24.62 7.797-29.56 19.75c-4.969 11.97-2.219 25.72 6.938 34.88L370.8 96L169.4 297.4c-12.5 12.5-12.5 32.75 0 45.25C175.6 348.9 183.8 352 192 352s16.38-3.125 22.62-9.375L416 141.3l41.38 41.38c9.156 9.141 22.88 11.84 34.88 6.938C504.2 184.6 512 172.9 512 160V24C512 10.74 501.3 0 488 0z\"></path></svg><p class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__prefix\">Get access to this valuable issue immediately!</p></a></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/marketing-button --></div><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/V22I02thumb-768x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14855 size-full\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Why-Subscribe\">Why Subscribe to InvesTech Research?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research is governed by a “Safety-First” investment strategy which is committed to helping you preserve capital and identify tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>We have a proven track record.</strong> For 40 years, we have successfully navigated volatile markets with our “Safety-First” strategy, providing valuable insights to our subscribers.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Over 120 years of data inform our publications.</strong> InvesTech has developed one of the largest private databases in the industry including technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data. Through this wealth of market information, we\'re able to spot trends and detect patterns that most other research firms miss.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Time-proven proprietary indicators and tools.</strong> We are unique in our ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>InvesTech provides 100% independent, objective analysis.</strong> We sell no investment products. We provide fiercely independent research that you will not get from brokers, mutual fund advisors, and even many investment newsletters.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item --></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/free-sample/\">Request Free Sample</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"className\":\"redBtn\",\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons redBtn\"><!-- wp:button /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"><!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Subscriber-Services\">As a Subscriber, You Will Receive:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4934,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/pub-icon.svg\" alt=\"Publications\" class=\"wp-image-4934\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"publications\">InvesTech Issues </h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The <strong><em>monthly</em></strong> <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter contains both monetary and technical analysis and unique research.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5759,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/knight.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5759\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"investech-indicators\">InvesTech Indicators</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Follow InvesTech\'s proprietary technical indicators <strong><em>daily </em></strong>to watch for important breakouts or warning flags.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":7871,\"width\":90,\"height\":90,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/compass-328cc1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7871\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em> </em></strong>up with <strong><em>weekly </em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5490,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutual-fund-port.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5490\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"model-fund-portfolio\">Model Fund Portfolio</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>View the <strong><em>current </em></strong>investment allocation in our Model ETF portfolio and access the latest trades as they happen.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4931,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/fin-data-icon.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4931\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"daily-data\">Daily Data</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>Daily </em></strong>access to a wide range of stock market metrics, including market indexes, breadth/volume data, and short-term indicators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5760,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/library-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5760\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"subscriber-library\">Subscriber Library</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Explore our library of Special Reports and past issues on important topics of a timeless and historically significant nature.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/\">Become a Subscriber</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\">InvesTech\'s 42-year Track Record Speaks for Itself!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is frequently quoted in the news.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/example-1/\">Read more...</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/testimonial {\"test_item_count\":9,\"classMigrate\":true,\"test_block\":[{\"description\":\"\\u003cem\\u003eMar. 13, 2009\\u003c/em\\u003e - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \\u0022heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the \\u003cbr\\u003ebear market bottom!\",\"name\":\"A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime\",\"company\":\"InvesTech 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InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \"heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the <br>bear market bottom!</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001</em> - \"In all probability, it is a new bull market.\"  InvesTech\'s growing confidence in the market also may stem from its past successes in calling critical turns.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Former bear warming to bullish possibilities</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch-300x150.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Sept. 6, 2007</em>  - ‘Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die from deterioration and economic imbalances, and we are seeing economic imbalances now.’”</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Newsletter editor gets defensive</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">MarketWatch</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>July 27, 2007</em> - InvesTech was one of the first to call the devastating bear market in <br>2007-2009.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Bear Market Warning Flags!</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001 </em>- Jim Stack was a bear on the stock market—an angry, snarling bear—Today, he is rightly considered a hero for warning subscribers... away from stocks as they climbed toward their peaks and then careened into the worst decline in a generation.  </div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Easy to understand technical analysis.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbr-300x102.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 1, 2002</em> - Paul Kangas:</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Jim Stack of InvesTech was the only panelist to correctly predict both a recession and bear market in 2001.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Nightly Business Report</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/dallas-1-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Aug. 19, 2001</em> - Mr. Stack has often been the lonely voice.  More significantly, he\'s often been right.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">From Afar, An Analyst Gets It Right</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Bill Deener, Staff Writer</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/washington-1-300x104.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Oct. 22, 1987</em> - The last stock in [InvesTech\'s] model portfolio was sold October 16, three days before the crash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Only five newsletters predicted plunge</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">The Washington Post</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 4, 1988</em> - InvesTech foresaw the stock market crash of Oct. 19. On Sept. 30, the <em>InvesTech </em>newsletter told stock investors to move to 94% cash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Expert Advice On Investing</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Dennis Cauchon, USA Today</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/testimonial -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"><!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5104,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/award-cup.svg\" alt=\"A magnificent trophy\" class=\"wp-image-5104\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"45%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:45%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\" id=\"kiplinger\"><strong>Kiplinger</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"rated-best-source-of-investment-advice-by-kiplinger-personal-finance-magazine\">Rated Best Source of Investment Advice by Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"red-caps\"} -->\n<p class=\"red-caps\"><strong>Best Stock Market Letter</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"em-red\"} -->\n<p class=\"em-red\">InvesTech Research, which promises ‘safety-first profits,’ has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations. <em>– Kiplinger Personal Finance</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"15%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"investech-research-is-frequently-quoted-in-the-following\">InvesTech Research is Frequently Quoted in the Following:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"linkTo\":\"none\",\"className\":\"multiply\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped multiply\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":15982,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/forbes-1-1024x513.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15982\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":15981,\"width\":846,\"height\":423,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NYT-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15981\" width=\"846\" height=\"423\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit our <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/in-the-news/\">In The News</a> to read more.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong>up with&nbsp;<strong><em>weekly&nbsp;</em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\"name\":\"acf/subscriber-content-teaser\",\"data\":{\"post_to_show\":[\"9498\",\"9722\",\"8813\"],\"_post_to_show\":\"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\"post_type_to_show\":\"investech-library\",\"_post_type_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\"number_to_show\":\"3\",\"_number_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"},\"mode\":\"edit\"} /-->','Home Page - Logged Out','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2023-02-14 13:43:35','2023-02-14 19:43:35','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=16775',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (16774,2,'2023-02-14 13:43:07','2023-02-14 19:43:07','<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:uagb/call-to-action {\"classMigrate\":true,\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"titleColor\":\"\",\"descColor\":\"\",\"descSpace\":20,\"block_id\":\"999c02e5\",\"buttonAlign\":\"\",\"ctaIcon\":\"calendar-days\",\"ctaIconPosition\":\"before\",\"ctaText\":\"Economic Trends\",\"contentWidth\":60,\"ctaBtnLinkColor\":\"\",\"stack\":\"desktop\",\"ctaTopPadding\":10,\"ctaBottomPadding\":10,\"ctaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaTopPadding\":10,\"secondCtaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaBottomPadding\":10,\"secondCtaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaBorderWidth\":\"\",\"ctaBorderRadius\":\"\",\"ctaBorderColor\":\"\",\"ctaBorderStyle\":\"\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderTopLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderTopRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-call-to-action uagb-block-999c02e5 wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-cta__wrap\"><h3 class=\"uagb-cta__title\">New to InvesTech Research - Economic Trends</h3><p class=\"uagb-cta__desc\">Stay up to date with the latest economic trends! This new feature tracks important indicators you should be watching. Economic Trends are available from our Menu or the button here.<br><br><strong>This new service is FREE, so you are welcome to share with friends and family!</strong></p></div><div class=\"uagb-cta__buttons\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"uagb-cta__button-link-wrapper wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M160 32V64H288V32C288 14.33 302.3 0 320 0C337.7 0 352 14.33 352 32V64H400C426.5 64 448 85.49 448 112V160H0V112C0 85.49 21.49 64 48 64H96V32C96 14.33 110.3 0 128 0C145.7 0 160 14.33 160 32zM0 192H448V464C448 490.5 426.5 512 400 512H48C21.49 512 0 490.5 0 464V192zM64 304C64 312.8 71.16 320 80 320H112C120.8 320 128 312.8 128 304V272C128 263.2 120.8 256 112 256H80C71.16 256 64 263.2 64 272V304zM192 304C192 312.8 199.2 320 208 320H240C248.8 320 256 312.8 256 304V272C256 263.2 248.8 256 240 256H208C199.2 256 192 263.2 192 272V304zM336 256C327.2 256 320 263.2 320 272V304C320 312.8 327.2 320 336 320H368C376.8 320 384 312.8 384 304V272C384 263.2 376.8 256 368 256H336zM64 432C64 440.8 71.16 448 80 448H112C120.8 448 128 440.8 128 432V400C128 391.2 120.8 384 112 384H80C71.16 384 64 391.2 64 400V432zM208 384C199.2 384 192 391.2 192 400V432C192 440.8 199.2 448 208 448H240C248.8 448 256 440.8 256 432V400C256 391.2 248.8 384 240 384H208zM320 432C320 440.8 327.2 448 336 448H368C376.8 448 384 440.8 384 432V400C384 391.2 376.8 384 368 384H336C327.2 384 320 391.2 320 400V432z\"></path></svg>Economic Trends</a></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/call-to-action --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":14420,\"width\":268,\"height\":80,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BARRONS-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14420\" width=\"268\" height=\"80\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3,\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h3 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\">Read what InvesTech &amp; Jim Stack were saying BEFORE the market peaked and started falling…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>“Preparing for a Bear Market”</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dec. 17, 2021 –&nbsp;<em>Barron’s&nbsp;</em>interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today’s high-risk market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>full article</strong></a>&nbsp;to see what steps investors should be taking to navigate this market safely.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":14855,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/v22i02thumb/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":26} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 26%\"><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"med-grey\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-med-grey-color has-text-color\">Don’t miss this essential issue as the Fed heads toward a monetary showdown…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><em>On Collision Course with a Bear Market</em></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Before volatility returned with a vengeance, InvesTech published its February issue, where we laid out the path of a (probable) bear market. With warning flags dropping into place, lofty levels of speculation and overvaluation, and increasingly entrenched inflation pressures, this has begun to resemble one of the most significant bull market tops in history. Download this <em>free </em>issue to learn how ultra-accommodative monetary policies from the Fed have led to a speculative frenzy, the similarities of this market to the unwinding of the Tech Bubble, the potential downside risk ahead, and how to safely navigate this dangerous environment.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/marketing-button {\"block_id\":\"eebf05c8\",\"classMigrate\":true,\"link\":\"/free-important-issue/\",\"linkTarget\":true,\"backgroundColor\":\"#a60d0d\",\"backgroundHoverColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"titleColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"titleHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"iconColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"iconHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"prefixColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"prefixHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\",\"className\":\"uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-marketing-button uagb-marketing-btn__align-center uagb-marketing-btn__align-text-center uagb-marketing-btn__icon-after uagb-block-eebf05c8 wp-block-button uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"><a href=\"/free-important-issue/\" class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__link wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__title\">Free Important Issue</span><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M384 320c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v96H64V160h96c17.67 0 32-14.32 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32L64 96c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64V448c0 35.34 28.65 64 64 64h288c35.35 0 64-28.66 64-64v-96C416 334.3 401.7 320 384 320zM488 0H352c-12.94 0-24.62 7.797-29.56 19.75c-4.969 11.97-2.219 25.72 6.938 34.88L370.8 96L169.4 297.4c-12.5 12.5-12.5 32.75 0 45.25C175.6 348.9 183.8 352 192 352s16.38-3.125 22.62-9.375L416 141.3l41.38 41.38c9.156 9.141 22.88 11.84 34.88 6.938C504.2 184.6 512 172.9 512 160V24C512 10.74 501.3 0 488 0z\"></path></svg><p class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__prefix\">Get access to this valuable issue immediately!</p></a></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/marketing-button --></div><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/V22I02thumb-768x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14855 size-full\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Why-Subscribe\">Why Subscribe to InvesTech Research?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research is governed by a “Safety-First” investment strategy which is committed to helping you preserve capital and identify tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>We have a proven track record.</strong> For 40 years, we have successfully navigated volatile markets with our “Safety-First” strategy, providing valuable insights to our subscribers.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Over 120 years of data inform our publications.</strong> InvesTech has developed one of the largest private databases in the industry including technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data. Through this wealth of market information, we\'re able to spot trends and detect patterns that most other research firms miss.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Time-proven proprietary indicators and tools.</strong> We are unique in our ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>InvesTech provides 100% independent, objective analysis.</strong> We sell no investment products. We provide fiercely independent research that you will not get from brokers, mutual fund advisors, and even many investment newsletters.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item --></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/free-sample/\">Request Free Sample</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"className\":\"redBtn\",\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons redBtn\"><!-- wp:button /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group toolboxed 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<strong><em>monthly</em></strong> <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter contains both monetary and technical analysis and unique research.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5759,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/knight.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5759\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"investech-indicators\">InvesTech Indicators</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Follow InvesTech\'s proprietary technical indicators <strong><em>daily </em></strong>to watch for important breakouts or warning flags.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":7871,\"width\":90,\"height\":90,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/compass-328cc1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7871\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em> </em></strong>up with <strong><em>weekly </em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5490,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutual-fund-port.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5490\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"model-fund-portfolio\">Model Fund Portfolio</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>View the <strong><em>current </em></strong>investment allocation in our Model ETF portfolio and access the latest trades as they happen.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4931,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/fin-data-icon.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4931\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"daily-data\">Daily Data</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>Daily </em></strong>access to a wide range of stock market metrics, including market indexes, breadth/volume data, and short-term indicators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5760,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/library-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5760\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"subscriber-library\">Subscriber Library</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Explore our library of Special Reports and past issues on important topics of a timeless and historically significant nature.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/\">Become a Subscriber</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\">InvesTech\'s 42-year Track Record Speaks for Itself!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is frequently quoted in the news.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/example-1/\">Read more...</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/testimonial {\"test_item_count\":9,\"classMigrate\":true,\"test_block\":[{\"description\":\"\\u003cem\\u003eMar. 13, 2009\\u003c/em\\u003e - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \\u0022heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the \\u003cbr\\u003ebear market bottom!\",\"name\":\"A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime\",\"company\":\"InvesTech 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InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \"heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the <br>bear market bottom!</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001</em> - \"In all probability, it is a new bull market.\"  InvesTech\'s growing confidence in the market also may stem from its past successes in calling critical turns.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Former bear warming to bullish possibilities</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch-300x150.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Sept. 6, 2007</em>  - ‘Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die from deterioration and economic imbalances, and we are seeing economic imbalances now.’”</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Newsletter editor gets defensive</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">MarketWatch</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>July 27, 2007</em> - InvesTech was one of the first to call the devastating bear market in <br>2007-2009.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Bear Market Warning Flags!</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001 </em>- Jim Stack was a bear on the stock market—an angry, snarling bear—Today, he is rightly considered a hero for warning subscribers... away from stocks as they climbed toward their peaks and then careened into the worst decline in a generation.  </div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Easy to understand technical analysis.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbr-300x102.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 1, 2002</em> - Paul Kangas:</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Jim Stack of InvesTech was the only panelist to correctly predict both a recession and bear market in 2001.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Nightly Business Report</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/dallas-1-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Aug. 19, 2001</em> - Mr. Stack has often been the lonely voice.  More significantly, he\'s often been right.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">From Afar, An Analyst Gets It Right</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Bill Deener, Staff Writer</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/washington-1-300x104.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Oct. 22, 1987</em> - The last stock in [InvesTech\'s] model portfolio was sold October 16, three days before the crash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Only five newsletters predicted plunge</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">The Washington Post</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 4, 1988</em> - InvesTech foresaw the stock market crash of Oct. 19. On Sept. 30, the <em>InvesTech </em>newsletter told stock investors to move to 94% cash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Expert Advice On Investing</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Dennis Cauchon, USA Today</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/testimonial -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"><!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5104,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/award-cup.svg\" alt=\"A magnificent trophy\" class=\"wp-image-5104\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"45%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:45%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\" id=\"kiplinger\"><strong>Kiplinger</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"rated-best-source-of-investment-advice-by-kiplinger-personal-finance-magazine\">Rated Best Source of Investment Advice by Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"red-caps\"} -->\n<p class=\"red-caps\"><strong>Best Stock Market Letter</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"em-red\"} -->\n<p class=\"em-red\">InvesTech Research, which promises ‘safety-first profits,’ has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations. <em>– Kiplinger Personal Finance</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"15%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"investech-research-is-frequently-quoted-in-the-following\">InvesTech Research is Frequently Quoted in the Following:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"linkTo\":\"none\",\"className\":\"multiply\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped multiply\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":15982,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/forbes-1-1024x513.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15982\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":15981,\"width\":846,\"height\":423,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NYT-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15981\" width=\"846\" height=\"423\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit our <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/in-the-news/\">In The News</a> to read more.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong>up with&nbsp;<strong><em>weekly&nbsp;</em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\"name\":\"acf/subscriber-content-teaser\",\"data\":{\"post_to_show\":[\"9498\",\"9722\",\"8813\"],\"_post_to_show\":\"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\"post_type_to_show\":\"investech-library\",\"_post_type_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\"number_to_show\":\"3\",\"_number_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"},\"mode\":\"edit\"} /-->','Home Page - Logged Out','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2023-02-14 13:43:07','2023-02-14 19:43:07','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=16774',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (16773,2,'2023-02-14 13:42:48','2023-02-14 19:42:48','<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:uagb/call-to-action {\"classMigrate\":true,\"textAlign\":\"center\",\"titleColor\":\"\",\"descColor\":\"\",\"descSpace\":20,\"block_id\":\"999c02e5\",\"buttonAlign\":\"\",\"ctaIcon\":\"calendar-days\",\"ctaIconPosition\":\"before\",\"ctaText\":\"Economic Trends\",\"contentWidth\":60,\"ctaBtnLinkColor\":\"\",\"stack\":\"desktop\",\"ctaTopPadding\":10,\"ctaBottomPadding\":10,\"ctaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaTopPadding\":10,\"secondCtaRightPadding\":14,\"secondCtaBottomPadding\":10,\"secondCtaLeftPadding\":14,\"ctaBorderWidth\":\"\",\"ctaBorderRadius\":\"\",\"ctaBorderColor\":\"\",\"ctaBorderStyle\":\"\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderTopLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderTopRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomLeftRadius\":0,\"btnBorderBottomRightRadius\":0,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-call-to-action uagb-block-999c02e5 wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-cta__wrap\"><h3 class=\"uagb-cta__title\">New to InvesTech Research - Economic Trends</h3><p class=\"uagb-cta__desc\">Stay up to date with the latest economic trends! This new feature tracks important indicators you should be watching.<br>Economic Trends are available from our Menu or the button here.<br><br><strong>This new service is FREE, so you are welcome to share with friends and family!</strong></p></div><div class=\"uagb-cta__buttons\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"uagb-cta__button-link-wrapper wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M160 32V64H288V32C288 14.33 302.3 0 320 0C337.7 0 352 14.33 352 32V64H400C426.5 64 448 85.49 448 112V160H0V112C0 85.49 21.49 64 48 64H96V32C96 14.33 110.3 0 128 0C145.7 0 160 14.33 160 32zM0 192H448V464C448 490.5 426.5 512 400 512H48C21.49 512 0 490.5 0 464V192zM64 304C64 312.8 71.16 320 80 320H112C120.8 320 128 312.8 128 304V272C128 263.2 120.8 256 112 256H80C71.16 256 64 263.2 64 272V304zM192 304C192 312.8 199.2 320 208 320H240C248.8 320 256 312.8 256 304V272C256 263.2 248.8 256 240 256H208C199.2 256 192 263.2 192 272V304zM336 256C327.2 256 320 263.2 320 272V304C320 312.8 327.2 320 336 320H368C376.8 320 384 312.8 384 304V272C384 263.2 376.8 256 368 256H336zM64 432C64 440.8 71.16 448 80 448H112C120.8 448 128 440.8 128 432V400C128 391.2 120.8 384 112 384H80C71.16 384 64 391.2 64 400V432zM208 384C199.2 384 192 391.2 192 400V432C192 440.8 199.2 448 208 448H240C248.8 448 256 440.8 256 432V400C256 391.2 248.8 384 240 384H208zM320 432C320 440.8 327.2 448 336 448H368C376.8 448 384 440.8 384 432V400C384 391.2 376.8 384 368 384H336C327.2 384 320 391.2 320 400V432z\"></path></svg>Economic Trends</a></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/call-to-action --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:columns -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:spacer -->\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":14420,\"width\":268,\"height\":80,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/BARRONS-logo.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14420\" width=\"268\" height=\"80\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3,\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h3 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\">Read what InvesTech &amp; Jim Stack were saying BEFORE the market peaked and started falling…</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2><strong>“Preparing for a Bear Market”</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Dec. 17, 2021 –&nbsp;<em>Barron’s&nbsp;</em>interviewed Jim Stack, president of InvesTech Research, in a feature article about the best strategy and portfolio positioning for today’s high-risk market.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://webreprints.djreprints.com/58891.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>full article</strong></a>&nbsp;to see what steps investors should be taking to navigate this market safely.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"align\":\"wide\",\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-2-0\"><!-- wp:media-text {\"mediaPosition\":\"right\",\"mediaId\":14855,\"mediaLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/home/v22i02thumb/\",\"mediaType\":\"image\",\"mediaWidth\":26} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text alignwide has-media-on-the-right is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:auto 26%\"><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"med-grey\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-med-grey-color has-text-color\">Don’t miss this essential issue as the Fed heads toward a monetary showdown…</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3><em>On Collision Course with a Bear Market</em></h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Before volatility returned with a vengeance, InvesTech published its February issue, where we laid out the path of a (probable) bear market. With warning flags dropping into place, lofty levels of speculation and overvaluation, and increasingly entrenched inflation pressures, this has begun to resemble one of the most significant bull market tops in history. Download this <em>free </em>issue to learn how ultra-accommodative monetary policies from the Fed have led to a speculative frenzy, the similarities of this market to the unwinding of the Tech Bubble, the potential downside risk ahead, and how to safely navigate this dangerous environment.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/marketing-button {\"block_id\":\"eebf05c8\",\"classMigrate\":true,\"link\":\"/free-important-issue/\",\"linkTarget\":true,\"backgroundColor\":\"#a60d0d\",\"backgroundHoverColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"titleColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"titleHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"iconColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"iconHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"prefixColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"prefixHoverColor\":\"#00467F\",\"btnBorderTopWidth\":1,\"btnBorderLeftWidth\":1,\"btnBorderRightWidth\":1,\"btnBorderBottomWidth\":1,\"btnBorderStyle\":\"solid\",\"btnBorderColor\":\"#333\",\"className\":\"uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-marketing-button uagb-marketing-btn__align-center uagb-marketing-btn__align-text-center uagb-marketing-btn__icon-after uagb-block-eebf05c8 wp-block-button uagb-marketing-btn__outer-wrap uagb-marketing-btn__icon-before\"><a href=\"/free-important-issue/\" class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__link wp-block-button__link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__title\">Free Important Issue</span><svg xmlns=\"https://www.w3.org/2000/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M384 320c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v96H64V160h96c17.67 0 32-14.32 32-32s-14.33-32-32-32L64 96c-35.35 0-64 28.65-64 64V448c0 35.34 28.65 64 64 64h288c35.35 0 64-28.66 64-64v-96C416 334.3 401.7 320 384 320zM488 0H352c-12.94 0-24.62 7.797-29.56 19.75c-4.969 11.97-2.219 25.72 6.938 34.88L370.8 96L169.4 297.4c-12.5 12.5-12.5 32.75 0 45.25C175.6 348.9 183.8 352 192 352s16.38-3.125 22.62-9.375L416 141.3l41.38 41.38c9.156 9.141 22.88 11.84 34.88 6.938C504.2 184.6 512 172.9 512 160V24C512 10.74 501.3 0 488 0z\"></path></svg><p class=\"uagb-marketing-btn__prefix\">Get access to this valuable issue immediately!</p></a></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/marketing-button --></div><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/V22I02thumb-768x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14855 size-full\"/></figure></div>\n<!-- /wp:media-text --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"Why-Subscribe\">Why Subscribe to InvesTech Research?</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech Research is governed by a “Safety-First” investment strategy which is committed to helping you preserve capital and identify tremendous buying opportunities.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:list -->\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>We have a proven track record.</strong> For 40 years, we have successfully navigated volatile markets with our “Safety-First” strategy, providing valuable insights to our subscribers.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Over 120 years of data inform our publications.</strong> InvesTech has developed one of the largest private databases in the industry including technical, monetary, and macroeconomic data. Through this wealth of market information, we\'re able to spot trends and detect patterns that most other research firms miss.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>Time-proven proprietary indicators and tools.</strong> We are unique in our ability to analyze both the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as well as the technical health of the stock market, and what it means for your portfolio.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li><strong>InvesTech provides 100% independent, objective analysis.</strong> We sell no investment products. We provide fiercely independent research that you will not get from brokers, mutual fund advisors, and even many investment newsletters.</li>\n<!-- /wp:list-item --></ul>\n<!-- /wp:list -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/free-sample/\">Request Free Sample</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"className\":\"redBtn\",\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons redBtn\"><!-- wp:button /--></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"toolboxed wall-to-wall neutral-warm\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group toolboxed 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<strong><em>monthly</em></strong> <em>InvesTech Research</em> newsletter contains both monetary and technical analysis and unique research.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5759,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/knight.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5759\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"investech-indicators\">InvesTech Indicators</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Follow InvesTech\'s proprietary technical indicators <strong><em>daily </em></strong>to watch for important breakouts or warning flags.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":7871,\"width\":90,\"height\":90,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/compass-328cc1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7871\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em> </em></strong>up with <strong><em>weekly </em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5490,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/mutual-fund-port.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5490\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"model-fund-portfolio\">Model Fund Portfolio</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>View the <strong><em>current </em></strong>investment allocation in our Model ETF portfolio and access the latest trades as they happen.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":4931,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/fin-data-icon.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4931\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"daily-data\">Daily Data</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong><em>Daily </em></strong>access to a wide range of stock market metrics, including market indexes, breadth/volume data, and short-term indicators.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"top\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5760,\"height\":75,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/library-1.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5760\" height=\"75\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"subscriber-library\">Subscriber Library</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Explore our library of Special Reports and past issues on important topics of a timeless and historically significant nature.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:buttons {\"layout\":{\"type\":\"flex\",\"justifyContent\":\"center\",\"orientation\":\"horizontal\"}} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><!-- wp:button {\"className\":\"is-style-high-impact\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-high-impact\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/product/subscriptions/\">Become a Subscriber</a></div>\n<!-- /wp:button --></div>\n<!-- /wp:buttons -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"10px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:spacer --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"textAlign\":\"left\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-text-align-left\">InvesTech\'s 42-year Track Record Speaks for Itself!</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>InvesTech is frequently quoted in the news.  <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/example-1/\">Read more...</a></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:uagb/testimonial {\"test_item_count\":9,\"classMigrate\":true,\"test_block\":[{\"description\":\"\\u003cem\\u003eMar. 13, 2009\\u003c/em\\u003e - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \\u0022heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the \\u003cbr\\u003ebear market bottom!\",\"name\":\"A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime\",\"company\":\"InvesTech 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Logged Out\",\"uploadedToLink\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4\\u0026action=edit\",\"filesizeInBytes\":16222,\"filesizeHumanReadable\":\"16 KB\",\"context\":\"\",\"height\":239,\"width\":606,\"orientation\":\"landscape\",\"sizes\":{\"thumbnail\":{\"height\":150,\"width\":150,\"url\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-150x150.jpg\",\"orientation\":\"landscape\"},\"medium\":{\"height\":118,\"width\":300,\"url\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\",\"orientation\":\"landscape\"},\"full\":{\"url\":\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday.jpg\",\"height\":239,\"width\":606,\"orientation\":\"landscape\"}},\"compat\":{\"item\":\"\",\"meta\":\"\"},\"acf_errors\":false}}],\"descColor\":\"#F5F4F0\",\"authorColor\":\"#f2cb05\",\"iconimgStyle\":\"normal\",\"imagePosition\":\"top\",\"nameFontSize\":27,\"companyFontFamily\":\"\",\"companyFontWeight\":\"\",\"descFontSize\":20,\"descSpace\":15,\"block_id\":\"931630bf\",\"iconImage\":{\"url\":\"\",\"alt\":\"InfoBox placeholder img\"},\"imageSize\":\"medium\",\"imageWidth\":189,\"autoplaySpeed\":4000,\"arrowDots\":\"dots\",\"arrowBorderSize\":1,\"backgroundType\":\"color\",\"backgroundColor\":\"#303030\",\"borderStyle\":\"double\",\"borderWidth\":33,\"borderColor\":\"#303030\",\"backgroundOpacity\":50,\"paddingTop\":5,\"paddingBottom\":5,\"paddingLeft\":5,\"paddingRight\":5,\"imgpaddingTop\":10,\"imgpaddingRight\":10,\"imgpaddingBottom\":10,\"imgpaddingLeft\":10,\"overallBorderTopWidth\":33,\"overallBorderLeftWidth\":33,\"overallBorderRightWidth\":33,\"overallBorderBottomWidth\":33,\"overallBorderStyle\":\"double\",\"overallBorderColor\":\"#303030\",\"imgTagHeight\":75,\"imgTagWidth\":300} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-testimonial uagb-slick-carousel uagb-tm__arrow-outside uagb-block-931630bf\"><div class=\"is-carousel uagb-tm__columns-1 uagb-tm__items\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Mar. 13, 2009</em> - InvesTech boldly advised subscribers that the markets were \"heading toward a buying opportunity of a lifetime” – just 4 days after the <br>bear market bottom!</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">A Buying Opportunity of a Lifetime</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001</em> - \"In all probability, it is a new bull market.\"  InvesTech\'s growing confidence in the market also may stem from its past successes in calling critical turns.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Former bear warming to bullish possibilities</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch-300x150.png\" alt=\"MarketWatch logo\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Sept. 6, 2007</em>  - ‘Bull markets don’t die of old age, they die from deterioration and economic imbalances, and we are seeing economic imbalances now.’”</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Newsletter editor gets defensive</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">MarketWatch</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/investech-2-300x120.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>July 27, 2007</em> - InvesTech was one of the first to call the devastating bear market in <br>2007-2009.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Bear Market Warning Flags!</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">InvesTech Research</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/latimes-300x76.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Dec. 9, 2001 </em>- Jim Stack was a bear on the stock market—an angry, snarling bear—Today, he is rightly considered a hero for warning subscribers... away from stocks as they climbed toward their peaks and then careened into the worst decline in a generation.  </div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Easy to understand technical analysis.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Los Angeles Times</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/nbr-300x102.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 1, 2002</em> - Paul Kangas:</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Jim Stack of InvesTech was the only panelist to correctly predict both a recession and bear market in 2001.</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Nightly Business Report</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/dallas-1-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Aug. 19, 2001</em> - Mr. Stack has often been the lonely voice.  More significantly, he\'s often been right.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">From Afar, An Analyst Gets It Right</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Bill Deener, Staff Writer</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/washington-1-300x104.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Oct. 22, 1987</em> - The last stock in [InvesTech\'s] model portfolio was sold October 16, three days before the crash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Only five newsletters predicted plunge</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">The Washington Post</span></div></div></div></div></div><div class=\"uagb-testimonial__wrap  uagb-tm__imgicon-style-normal uagb-tm__image-position-top uagb-tm__bg-type-color \"><div class=\"uagb-tm__content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__overlay\"></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__image-content\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__image\"><img class=\"uagb-tm-img-src\" src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/usatoday-300x118.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"189\" height=\"75\" loading=\"lazy\"/></div></div><div class=\"uagb-tm__text-wrap\"><div class=\"uagb-tm__desc\"><em>Jan. 4, 1988</em> - InvesTech foresaw the stock market crash of Oct. 19. On Sept. 30, the <em>InvesTech </em>newsletter told stock investors to move to 94% cash.</div><div class=\"uagb-tm__meta-inner\"><div class=\"uagb-testimonial-details\"><span class=\"uagb-tm__author-name\">Expert Advice On Investing</span><span class=\"uagb-tm__company\">Dennis Cauchon, USA Today</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n<!-- /wp:uagb/testimonial -->\n\n<!-- wp:group {\"className\":\"wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-group wall-to-wall neutral-warm pad-3-0\"><!-- wp:columns {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns are-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\"><!-- wp:image {\"align\":\"center\",\"id\":5104,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/award-cup.svg\" alt=\"A magnificent trophy\" class=\"wp-image-5104\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"verticalAlignment\":\"center\",\"width\":\"45%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center\" style=\"flex-basis:45%\"><!-- wp:heading {\"textColor\":\"maroon\"} -->\n<h2 class=\"has-maroon-color has-text-color\" id=\"kiplinger\"><strong>Kiplinger</strong></h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 id=\"rated-best-source-of-investment-advice-by-kiplinger-personal-finance-magazine\">Rated Best Source of Investment Advice by Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine.</h3>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"red-caps\"} -->\n<p class=\"red-caps\"><strong>Best Stock Market Letter</strong></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"className\":\"em-red\"} -->\n<p class=\"em-red\">InvesTech Research, which promises ‘safety-first profits,’ has bested the overall stock market over the long haul with less risk. Publisher James Stack analyzes economic, monetary and market data (some going back more than 100 years) to make market calls and recommend allocations. <em>– Kiplinger Personal Finance</em></p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"15%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:15%\"></div>\n<!-- /wp:column --></div>\n<!-- /wp:columns -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"investech-research-is-frequently-quoted-in-the-following\">InvesTech Research is Frequently Quoted in the Following:</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:gallery {\"linkTo\":\"none\",\"className\":\"multiply\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped multiply\"><!-- wp:image {\"id\":15982,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/forbes-1-1024x513.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15982\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2809,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Yahoo-Finance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2809\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2810,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/MoneyShow.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2810\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2897,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Barrons.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2897\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":2811,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Marketwatch.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2811\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":15981,\"width\":846,\"height\":423,\"sizeSlug\":\"large\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img src=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NYT-1-1024x512.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15981\" width=\"846\" height=\"423\"/></figure>\n<!-- /wp:image --></figure>\n<!-- /wp:gallery -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Visit our <a href=\"https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/in-the-news/\">In The News</a> to read more.  </p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph --></div>\n<!-- /wp:group -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading -->\n<h2 id=\"market-insights\">Market Insights</h2>\n<!-- /wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Keep<strong><em>&nbsp;</em></strong>up with&nbsp;<strong><em>weekly&nbsp;</em></strong>economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing.</p>\n<!-- /wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:acf/subscriber-content-teaser {\"name\":\"acf/subscriber-content-teaser\",\"data\":{\"post_to_show\":[\"9498\",\"9722\",\"8813\"],\"_post_to_show\":\"field_5f2aeab7381f9\",\"post_type_to_show\":\"investech-library\",\"_post_type_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec3f2eccd\",\"number_to_show\":\"3\",\"_number_to_show\":\"field_5f2aec6a2ecce\"},\"mode\":\"edit\"} /-->','Home Page - Logged Out','','inherit','closed','closed','','4-revision-v1','','','2023-02-14 13:42:48','2023-02-14 19:42:48','',4,'https://ns2020-investech.investech.com/?p=16773',0,'revision','',0);
